Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montauk, NY

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather continues this weekend as slow low pressure slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine.

- Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures.

- Unsettled weather may return late this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather moves offshore this morning as a low pressure slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine.

Latest surface analysis showed that a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine, heading toward Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, a mid level low over southern New England should move offshore later this morning as well. Scattered showers end early, leaving much of today dry.

The colder air aloft will result in gusty west to northwest winds developing, especially after clouds break up.

Temperatures expected to remain slightly above normal through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures.

We remain under WNW flow with another upper level trough clearing the region through Monday night, and with it cooler temperatures prevail aloft. 850 mb temperatures look to fall below 0C late Monday night then steadily improve through the day on Tuesday to around 2- 4C. These cooler conditions aloft will remain supportive of a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs Tuesday look to be generally in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s.
These more seasonable temperatures are expected to continue through at least midweek as the WNW to W flow aloft continues.
Breezy conditions at the surface are expected at least for Tuesday as another low looks to pass to our northeast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather may return late this week.

Towards the second half of next week, guidance has continued to indicate possible development of another low pressure originating from just to the south of the region along/just off the mid- Atlantic coast. This looks to be driven by the approach of an upper level shortwave tracking from the Canadian Prairies southeast into the mid- Atlantic region. With this possible system, we could see the return of more unsettled conditions for the second half of the week. A lot of spread remains this far out from this potential system, especially regarding any potential precipitation associated with it.

Some guidance indicates a decent bit of colder air aloft, notably 850 mb temperatures below 0C, approaching the region. As such, temperatures look to drop off a bit towards the end of the week, with ensembles showing mean temperatures in the lower 40s and upper 50s for afternoon highs. Onshore winds may end up keeping coastal areas slightly warmer, and any precipitation that falls there would lean towards rain. Over the colder interior, we could see some rain to wet snow falling. This event is still towards the day 6 and 7 timeframe of the forecast, so much will likely change between now and then regarding the details of this system.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

Areas of MVFR conditions improve to VFR by early afternoon.
MVFR conditions take longer to clear out across the higher terrain of central and western MA. W winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts as high as 30 kt by this afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. SW winds generally 5-10 kt with winds slightly higher towards the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover increases after midnight with ceilings starting to decline over western MA.

Monday...High confidence.

VFR for most. Local MVFR possible across the higher terrain of central and western MA. Mainly dry, but perhaps a few showers towards western MA.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Veterans Day through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday...High confidence.

Gusty W to NW winds develop today. Lingering rough seas, mainly across the southern outer coastal waters. The rough seas across those waters are likely to persist through at least Monday night, and perhaps longer.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Veterans Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231- 234.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232- 233-235-237-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256.