Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:36PM Saturday August 24, 2019 9:30 PM EDT (01:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 641 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..Light and variable winds, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 641 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the eastern canada region will continue to drift east through early next week. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through the forecast waters Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 242332
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
732 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will contribute to low clouds and light showers
for tonight into Sunday, especially across southeast new
england. High pressure lingers into midweek, with seasonable
and dry conditions to continue. Still have an eye on the
tropics at this time, with potential high surf and dangerous rip
currents for the atlantic-exposed shoreline of new england.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Still expecting
a steady NE flow to develop across portions of eastern ma. This
will push a marine layer farther onshore later tonight.

Expecting a good deal of stratus at a minimum, with the
possibility of some light showers drizzle.

Brought forecast conditions for the next several hours back in
line with observed trends.

Tonight...

s E low clouds, light showers. N W mainly clear, cooler, light winds
and the threat of patchy dense fog.

Mid-level trof exiting, amplifying into a closed low. High in tow,
surface pressure gradient tightens thereby enhancing long-fetch ne
flow especially over E SE coastal ma and ri. Having cooled within
low-levels below a dry-subsidence inversion down to h8-7, moisture
collects and coalesces around h95 within a destabilized boundary
layer. Convergent low-level wind elements included, low cloud and
light shower threats encompass areas around and southeast of cape
ann to mid-coastal ct.

Meanwhile N w, partial to mostly clear, likely radiational cooling,
boundary layer decoupling and light winds. Expect dense fog within
interior valleys.

Tricky low temperature forecast along the forecast wind cloud edge.

Preference to consensus near-term high-res guidance but some wiggle
room. Even as far back as the berkshires there's the possibility of
lingering surface-h8 moisture (evident in present cumulus field).

And given the cooling profile there's the possibility of low cloud
development, especially along the N e-facing slopes where moisture
would pool. Yet evidence of drying in the column. Rap builds SW a
significant h85 dry wedge (presently inching S into N me) that'll
mix into the aforementioned low level cool boundary layer profile.

Could be stubborn clouds along the high terrain but clear within the
valleys N W while low clouds prevail SE with the NE long-fetch. A
bunch of near-term updates likely.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
2 pm update...

Sunday...

low clouds, showers linger S e. Looking pleasant N w. As noted in
the tonight discussion, following low-level h925-85 thetae dry air
advection. Continued h8-7 dry-subsidence inversion beneath which the
profile remains cool, destabilized, daytime heating plus convergent
elements of h925-85 winds, broken to overcast low clouds and light
shower chances are likely to continue over SE new england whereas
more scattered to broken cloud decks and dry prevail NW ma and ct.

Showers mainly during the morning, thinking daytime heating and
boundary layer mixing should limit the deep-layer moisture profile
with some dry-air contamination. Continued preference to consensus
of near-term high-res guidance. Another tricky high-temperature
forecast dependent on cloud shield edge. Should see blustery ne
winds for all locations, strongest of course along the coast.

Sunday night...

low clouds linger, however shower chances diminish. Mid to upper
level high nudging S round which h925-85 dry air advection should
finally sweep through all new england, the accompanying subsidence
inversion deepening down to the surface through the atmospheric
column. Moisture continuing to pool beneath through which NE long-
fetch flow prevails, low clouds seem likely over SE new england
whereas over mostly clear NW ma and ct it's another night of
radiational cooling and patchy dense fog within the valleys. Once
again a tricky low-temperature forecast given the uncertainty as to
the cloud-shield edge. Mild se, cooler nw.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Highlights...

* below normal temperatures early next week, especially across
eastern massachusetts into rhode island
* onshore winds will bring spotty light rain or showers at
times into mid week
* temperatures return to near normal levels around mid week,
becoming warmer than normal by Friday
* another chance for showers late Wednesday through Thursday
details...

Monday through Tuesday...

a large high pressure will continue to be the primary influence on
our weather. Strong subsidence inversion present in the model
soundings from pretty much all of the guidance. The question remains
if there will be enough of a near surface layer beneath this
inversion where the onshore flow could push enough moisture into
southern new england for some spotty drizzle. The moisture is very,
very shallow, so trended the forecast in a drier direction.

Below normal temperatures expected during this time, especially
towards ri and eastern ma.

The easterly winds may become gusty as the pressure gradient
increases around the southern section of the high from Monday
into Tuesday. May see gusts up to 20 to as high as 30 mph,
highest across CAPE cod and the islands.

Wednesday through Friday...

this is the most likely period for our next round of wet weather.

Mid level flow is rather amplified, and not translating east very
quickly. Thus, expecting a low pressure over central canada to take
a long time to push a series of fronts our way. The first cold front
is currently thought to arrive sometime Thursday into Friday. A
second front, may arrive sometime Friday night into Saturday. Given
this time range, and the mid level flow pattern, am expecting this
timing to change a bit over the coming days.

Still monitoring the tropics. Latest forecasts still take a
disturbance off the SE usa coast out to sea. The most likely impact
from this system may be a period of rough surf along ocean-exposed
beaches, particularly those which are also south-facing.

Temperatures should be a bit higher with increased southerly flow
ahead of the approaching cold front. Near normal towards mid week,
and perhaps slightly above normal late next week.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

e SE ma and ri, CIGS lowering to MVFR around midnight into
early morning Sunday, vcsh as sct -shra forecast. Persistent 10
to 15 kt N NE winds. N W ma and ri there's the possibility of
sct-bkn ifr CIGS across the high terrain with breezy E NE winds
around 10 kts, but few-sct within the valleys along with light
winds allowing ifr fg. Higher confidence ifr fg within sheltered
valleys in NW ma.

Sunday...

conditions lift and improve toVFR across NW new england with sct
low-endVFR cigs. E NE winds around 10 kts. Sct-bkn MVFR continues
along with morning -shra across SE new england with E NE 10 to
15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.

Sunday night...

few-sct across the interior with light winds, the threat of ifr
fg once again. Sct-bkn MVFR continues across SE new england with
breezy E NE winds 10 to 15 kts.

Kbos terminal...

high confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing for
lower cigs.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night through Tuesday:VFR.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR
possible. Chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

3 pm update...

long-fetch E NE winds the height of which will occur on Sunday
with gusts up to 30 kts and seas building up around 5 feet. This
as high pressure builds out of the N with low pressure lingering
s. A downward trend Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
wins out and builds across the region. Small craft advisories in
effect for a majority of the waters, especially S se, beginning
early Sunday morning.

Scattered light showers at times, developing late tonight and
continuing into early Sunday.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 6 pm edt Sunday for anz231-
236.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 am edt Monday for
anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi61 min 67°F 72°F1023.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi106 min SE 7 G 8 69°F 1007.4 hPa59°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi61 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 71°F1023.6 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi31 min 76°F4 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi61 min ENE 6 G 11 66°F 66°F1024.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi61 min ENE 8.9 G 11 1024.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi97 minVar 4 mi68°F57°F70%1023.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi95 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F59°F70%1023 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi98 minNE 410.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1023.4 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi95 minENE 1110.00 miFair0°F0°F%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW5N7N7NE8N8
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N9N8N76NE5464NE5NE33544E6
1 day agoSW4SW6W7NW4W3NW3CalmN8N5N5N3N6N5N3CalmN4NW5NW5W6CalmNW4NW4NW4Calm
2 days agoSW7SW6SW6SW7SW7433CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SW6W64SW4SW5SW5SW7W5

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
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Sat -- 03:51 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.31.41.51.41.10.90.80.60.50.50.91.31.722.12.11.91.51.210.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
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Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:26 AM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:51 AM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:47 PM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     -2.90 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.90.21.221.91.40.5-0.7-1.7-2.2-2.3-1.9-0.90.21.22.12.41.91-0.2-1.6-2.5-2.8-2.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.