Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:46PM Saturday January 16, 2021 4:28 AM EST (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 409 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning, then becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Rain with isolated tstms this morning, then chance of rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of flurries.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 409 Am Est Sat Jan 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will deepen as it tracks along a frontal system moving across the waters this morning. The low continues to strengthen as it tracks across new england this afternoon through tonight, then the canadian maritimes on Sunday. Thereafter, a series of cold fronts will then move across the area through the middle of next week, each followed by weak high pressure.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 160910 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 410 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Intensifying low pressure will bring heavy rain this morning, with accumulating wet snow across the high terrain of Western Massachusetts. The low tracks into Northern New England this afternoon, giving way to a drying and colder trend into Sunday and early next week. Weak weather systems may bring scattered light snow showers Wednesday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

** Heavy rain with 1-2 inches likely *** *** Some wet snow in the high terrain of Northwest MA *** *** Strong Winds East Coastal Massachusetts ***

400 AM Update .

Heavy Rain .

Impressive satellite imagery early this morning, displaying a well developed and robust warm/moist conveyor belt (WCB) streaming up the Eastern Seaboard, with noticeable cooling cloud tops. Embedded within this WCB are wind anomalies of +3 to +4 standard deviations (SD), acting on abundant Atlantic moisture with PWAT around 1 inch (+3 SD)! In fact the daily PWAT record at CHH today is 1.13 inches. Nevertheless, strong forcing for ascent within a moist/saturated airstream supports widespread rainfall of 1-1.5 inches. Strong low level southeast jet of 60-70 kt at 925 mb will move across the region this morning and yield upslope component across the hilly terrain of MA/RI/CT. This is where isolated rainfall amounts of 2- 2.5 inches is possible. Not expecting river/stream flooding given recent dry stretch of weather, yielding plenty of river/stream capacity and lack of frozen ground not enhancing runoff. Therefore any flooding will be limited to minor poor drainage/street-highway flooding. Nonetheless, these rainfall rates will increase the risk of hydroplaning this morning.

Strong Winds .

00z models trended stronger with low level jet and extended jet core closer to the surface, with 50-60 kt down to about 500 ft across Eastern Coastal MA, as jet intensifies before exiting offshore around 18z. Model soundings suggest most of this wind remains aloft, however heavy downpours and 50 kt of wind only about 500 ft off the deck, supports 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph at the surface this morning into early afternoon for the East coast of MA. Therefore hoisted a wind advisory for this region. Elsewhere, winds not as strong thus no headlines, but sufficient for a wind swept rain. Winds drop off between 10 am to 1 pm from west to east.

Wet Snow Accumulations .

Interesting event earlier this morning with thundersnow at AQW 130 AM (SPECI KAQW 160630Z AUTO 10015G24KT 1 1/2SM VCTS -SN BR OVC012 01/M01)! Strong ascent coupled with 2-6km lapse rates of 7-7.5 c/km was the culprit. Temps aloft and at the surface are marginal to support snow and precip has been flipping over to rain whenever precip intensity slackens and wet bulb temps aren't realized. Been watching a live webcam from Chester, MA Railway and snow continues to struggle to accumulate given surface temps at or just above freezing. Thus snow totals will be very dependent on elevation, 2-4 inches above 1000 ft and little if any in the valleys. Also snow accums will be confined to non paved surfaces, lessening travel impacts with most roads remaining wet, not white. Hi Res guid including the HREF/NAM-3km and HRRRR appear to robust with snow totals given marginal thermal profiles and surface temps at or above freezing, limiting accumulations to non paved surfaces. Given mixed wintry ptype (snow, sleet and rain), melting occurring given marginal temps and snow compacting/settling, model accumulated positive snow depth change maps much more skillful than the standard 10:1 SLR. HRRR and NAM-3km only offering 1-3/2-4 inches, which seems reasonable given the marginal conditions.

Improving conditions this afternoon, as dry slot overspreads the region. Winds also slacken as direction shifts from ESE to SSW 15Z- 18Z. Mild with highs mainly 45-50.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/.

4 AM update .

Tonight .

Mainly dry but can't rule out some Lake Effect cloudiness and isolated flurries in the upslope region of Western-Central MA/CT. Cooler but still above normal with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. But blustery WSW winds will make it feel even cooler.

Sunday .

Dry but chilly cyclonic flow with 850 mb temps cooling off to about - 6C. Although with downsloping winds highs should warm to 40-45, upper 30s high terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.


AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update .

Thru 12z . high confidence but lower on duration of snow Northwest MA and amounts.

Rain overspreads the region from southwest to northeast with conditions trending toward MVFR, except IFR across CT/RI and western-central MA. Rain becoming heavy 09z-12z from west to east. East winds increase especially along the coast with gusts up to 40 kt. LLWS as low level southeast jet up to 65 kt at 925 mb. Wet snow, heavy at times across the Berkshires with 2-4 inches possible, isolated 6" amounts possible.

After 12z . high confidence on trends, some uncertainty on exact timing.

MVFR/IFR with LIFR in the hilly terrain of MA. Heavy rain with isolated -TSRA possible south coast including Cape Cod and Islands. Any snow over Western MA will taper off or change to rain. LLWS across RI and eastern MA as strong low level SE jet moves across the area, then exiting offshore around 18z. Strong ESE surface winds up to 40 kt along the Eastern MA coastline. Then a wind shift to the SSW 15z-18z from west to east. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR with this wind shift along with a drying trend.

Tonight . high confidence.

Any MVFR at 00z trends upward to VFR. Dry weather but brisk SW winds at 00z becoming W with speeds 10-20 kt but gusts up to 35 kt along the coast, Cape Cod and Islands.

Sunday . high confidence.

VFR cloud bases with MVFR in the hilly terrain of Western MA along with scattered snow showers possible. Blustery with west winds 15-20 kt gusting up to 30-35 kt at times.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE.

*** Gale Warning continues through midday ***

4 AM update .

Today . ESE gales as low pressure tracks across New England. Heavy rain this morning limiting vsby. Wind shift from ESE to SSW 15z-18z from west to east. Drying trend and improving vsby with the wind shift.

Tonight . Westerly gales possible as strong low moves across ME. Dry weather and good vsby.

Sunday . 980 mb in the Maritimes yields marginal westerly gales. Dry weather and good vsby.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

400 AM update .

No change from previous thinking, storm surge of 1.5 to 2.0 ft along the Eastern MA coastline as high tide approaches around 130 pm this afternoon. Will continue with Coastal Flood Advisory for minor flooding across the entire Eastern MA coastline, but greatest threat is from Boston northward thru Cape Ann to the MA/NH border, as low level jet increases as it departs our region. This will result in greatest surge and wind in this region.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ020. Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ007-015-016- 019-021>024. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ007-015-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ002- 008. RI . Wind Advisory until noon EST today for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>234. Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-236-250- 251-254-255. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ235-237-256.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BW NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . WTB/BW AVIATION . Nocera/BW MARINE . Nocera/BW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi58 min 45°F 42°F1002.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi48 min E 31 G 37 42°F 1001 hPa22°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi58 min 42°F 44°F1003.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi38 min E 31 G 39 50°F 50°F11 ft1001.3 hPa47°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi32 min 46°F9 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi58 min E 13 G 19 42°F 44°F1007.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi58 min ENE 15 G 19 42°F 42°F1008.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi34 minE 15 G 23 mi46°F44°F93%1003.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi32 minE 23 G 304.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Windy43°F40°F89%1003.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi35 minE 14 G 254.00 miRain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1004.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi32 minE 19 G 283.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy43°F42°F97%1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW6NW3NW4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmNE3NE4NE7NE4NE5NE4
2 days agoN5NW5NW4N6N5NW6CalmW5SW4SW5SW5SW4CalmCalmSW4SW4SW5W5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
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Sat -- 05:17 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:04 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:34 PM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.51.10.70.30.10.10.61.21.82.32.52.31.91.410.50.1-00.20.71.21.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
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Sat -- 01:32 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:49 AM EST     -3.46 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:42 AM EST     2.98 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:09 PM EST     -3.65 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:26 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:11 PM EST     3.02 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41-0.8-2.2-3.1-3.4-2.8-1.501.72.82.92.41.2-0.5-2-3.1-3.6-3.3-2.2-0.712.43

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.