Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM   Moonset 1:17 PM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1244 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon - .
This afternoon - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm. Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1244 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will struggle to pass east of the waters today, followed by a cold frontal passage this afternoon into this evening. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KBOX 021703 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 103 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak low pressure will bring scattered showers near the coast Thursday. High pressure north of our region will bring dry and seasonable weather Friday and most of Saturday with onshore winds. An approaching front should bring showers late Saturday into Sunday. Dry and warmer weather is expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Today

10AM Update

Area of low status continues to move east. While areas of Eastern MA and RI woke up to Sun this morning, should expect overcast skies for much of the day with some clearing possible in the late afternoon. Western MA and CT are starting to break out of those low clouds now and will see sun the rest of the day. The short wave trough currently over northern New England will drop south today bringing a weak cold front with it. hi- res guidance continues to show light convective showers possible this afternoon with a low chance at rumble of thunder with 100-300 J/kg of SBCAPE. Thunder chances will likely be driven on how well the cloud cover holds together over eastern MA as any added sunshine will increase instability. The best chance for showers is across northeast MA where the best forcing will be present.

Areas across interior/western MA where sunshine will be more abundant can expect a very warm afternoon with 15C temps at 925 hPa supporting surface temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in the CT River Valley. Low 70s/upper 60s will be more common east of the Worcester Hills where the air mass will be cooler and the skies will be cloudier. Overall a mild/quiet spring afternoon across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Tonight

Winds shift to the northeast tonight as a surface low departs to the southeast of southern New England. Onshore flow will support clouds filling back in across the region. Overcast skies will prevent temperatures from falling too far, so we can expect near to slightly above normal low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s overnight.

Tomorrow

Onshore flow and east/northeasterly winds will support a cooler/cloudier day tomorrow. Locations along the east coastline will be much cooler than the interior in the face of onshore winds.
Areas along the coast will struggle to escape the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be more mild in the low to mid 60s across the interior and warmest in The CT River Valley in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Points:

* Scattered showers late Saturday into Sunday * Warmup early next week

Upper ridge should maintain dry weather Saturday before it heads offshore Sat night/Sun and allows scattered showers to reach SNE as cold front crosses region. Certainly looks cooler over weekend, especially Sunday with onshore winds once again.

Pattern becomes a little more complicated early next week as closed low over Rockies becomes blocked by building ridge over Great Lakes.
Broad SW flow aloft will favor warming temperatures but how quickly ridge flattens will determine when low pressure will reach western Great Lakes, lifting warm front through SNE in the midweek time frame. For now it looks dry Mon and Tue with increasing chances of showers sometime Wed-Thu.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of today: Moderate Confidence

Scattering out of the cloud deck is leading to VFR conditions for all interior terminals the rest of the afternoon. Cape Cod and the Islands will be stuck in IFR likely the rest of the day as the cloud deck moves east. There is still a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder mainly in NE MA this afternoon, but confidence was only high enough to include VCSH in the TAF at this time. Winds may occasionally gust 15-20 knots this afternoon.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Winds turn NE overnight advecting in a marine status cloud deck from over the ocean. This will bring IFR and localized LIFR overnight for eastern terminals, while western terminals may be spared with VFR/MVFR. Winds may occasionally gust 15-20 knots overnight esspically near the coasts.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

Gradual improvements in CIGS back to MVFR in the morning, then to VFR in the afternoon with the CAPE and Islands seeing IFR linger longer into the day. Winds turn SSE at 5-10 knots

Tomorrow Night: High Confidence

VFR with light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence.

VFR this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder. Winds turn NE this evening brining in IFR/LIFR CIGS after 00z. Gradual improvements to MVFR then VFR tomorrow.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.

VFR this afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible overnight, but the extent west of the marine status deck remains uncertain.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tomorrow

Conditions remain quiet across the coastal waters through tomorrow with modest wind speeds and seas generally 3 feet or less. Southwest winds for the first half of today become northeast as a weak low- pressure circulation moves over the marine zones. Northeast winds then persist through tonight and tomorrow.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Montauk
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Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2), Tide feet

The Race
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Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     2.58 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     -3.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     2.82 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31), knots

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