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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 451 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E late this evening, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 451 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Developing low pressure over the mid mississippi valley tonight heads up into the great lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east of the area Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the middle atlantic coast Wednesday before high pressure on Thursday.

FXUS61 KOKX 022147 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 447 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A developing low pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight heads up into the Great Lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday.
Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next frontal system may move through the region next Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Updated to account for fog development across Long Island early this evening. An SPS has been issued for locally dense fog. A dense fog advisory may be needed if the dense fog becomes more widespread. Confidence is low in the fog becoming more widespread overnight, but at least areas of fog, potentially dense, may occur ahead of the rain early Sunday morning. One negating factor is an abundance of middle and high level clouds.
Once the rain moves in any dense fog should improve.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through around 06z with rain overspreading the area from south to north through day break. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.

A deep SW flow aloft and strengthening low-level easterlies across the area will result in a decent overrunning rain event through much of the day on Sunday with rainfall amounts mainly around 0.75 inches. Temperature highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s inland and the lower 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough lifts from the eastern Great Lakes to east of New England Sunday night with drying conditions and a gusty west flow to follow. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The forecast reasoning in the extended has not changed over the last 24 hours and the NBM was largely followed for this update.

The highlights for the long term are:

*Mainly dry conditions are forecast through the period.

*Temperatures will start out above normal on Monday before trending below normal to seasonable levels Tuesday through Friday.

The latest global ensemble means continue to agree on the large scale pattern for next week. A mean upper trough will remain over the eastern states Monday through Wednesday. The trough shifts offshore by Thursday. While it is about a week out, the ensemble means largely depict a shift towards ridging in the east and troughing out west by next weekend.

Low pressure will continue lifting northeast of the area on Monday.
Cyclonic flow aloft will likely yield mostly cloudy conditions, but temperatures will be above normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A weak cold front/surface trough will also move through the area. High pressure briefly returns on Tuesday. Another shortwave within the larger upper trough approaches late Tuesday. The shortwave will help amplify the trough as it pushes off the Middle Atlantic and southeast coast on Wednesday. The modeling continues to be in good agreement that the amplification will be too far east for any impacts from a low pressure developing off the Middle Atlantic coast. Have left in a slight chance PoP Tuesday night based on the model consensus, but any precip would largely be isolated. Colder temperature profiles would support some brief wet snow with potentially some rain mixed in over the NYC metro. These PoPs may need to be trended down in subsequent forecasts and conditions may stay dry Tuesday night and Wednesday given latest model trends.

The upper trough moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday with heights rising into next weekend. High pressure returns on Thursday and may give way to a frontal system at the end of the week/next Saturday. The associated energy and shortwave passes well to our north, so have kept the forecast dry for now. The main theme heading into the end of the week and next weekend will be temperatures trending back above normal by next Saturday.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Lows from the south slowly approach going into tonight and move southeast of Long Island Sunday.

Categories vary from VFR to LIFR already within the region. VFR for most terminals but LIFR for KISP and IFR for KGON. These conditions for KISP and KGON may very well fluctuate over the next two hours but tonight through Sunday would expect mainly LIFR to IFR at these terminals.

Otherwise clouds and fog are expected to redevelop this evening for the other forecast terminals. Rain returns late overnight into early Sunday morning. The rain continues through Sunday. VFR conditions lower to MVFR this evening and IFR for late evening into overnight.
IFR expected to continue through much, if not all, of the remainder of the TAF period. Occasional sub-IFR will be possible late tonight into early Sunday for all terminals.

Winds will be 10 kts or less through tonight and then 10-15 kt are expected Sunday. Gusts up to 20 kt are forecast on Sunday, especially for coastal terminals. Wind direction variable going into tonight, and then more E-NE late tonight into Sunday.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of when MVFR and IFR redevelop could be off by 1-3 hours.
LIFR possible at times tonight into early Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Rain ending. MVFR to IFR improving late.

Monday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming more NW at night.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Have issued a marine weather statement for local dense fog with visibilities to 1 nm or less on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet, LI Bays, and eastern LI sound through 10 pm. This may need to be expanded later tonight. A dense fog advisory may also be needed.

Otherwise, A strengthening easterly flow late tonight into Sunday will likely bring SCA conditions to the waters on Sunday and into Sunday night. Marginal SCA wind gusts are possible on the ocean on Monday with seas near 5 ft. 5 ft seas may also occur Monday night. Sub- SCA conditions are largely expected through Thursday although there could be some marginal SCA wind gusts on the ocean Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall totals starting late tonight and into Sunday night will mainly be around 0.75 inches with no hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.

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Stratford Shoal
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Sat -- 02:12 AM EST     6.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:18 AM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:25 PM EST     6.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:51 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     6.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:32 PM EST     6.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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