Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, CT

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Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:24PM Friday July 19, 2019 6:44 PM EDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the morning, then tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains as the dominant feature in the weather patter through the weekend. A cold front then passes through the waters Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure slowly building from the west Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien CDP, CT
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location: 41.05, -73.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191950
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
350 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains as the dominant feature in the weather
pattern through this weekend. A cold front approaches late
Sunday and Sunday night, and moves across the region during
Monday. High pressure then returns for the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Will have to keep an eye on potential thunderstorms moving in from
the west early this evening ahead of an MCS shifting towards us from
western ny. Strong gusts will be possible in any storms given latest
analysis of dcape, particularly over the NW half of the tri-state
area. Convection should die down later this evening as the
atmosphere stabilizes. Dry otherwise for the rest of the night with
muggy conditions. Overnight lows will continue to be well above
normal with some record high minimum temperatures possible.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches into this
evening.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
High pressure will be the dominant feature in the weather pattern
Saturday and Saturday night with only a diurnally-driven thermal
trough developing. Capping probably limits anything from developing
into showers over us but cannot completely rule out a shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening as convection could spill
in from the west. Will still opt for a dry forecast. Partly cloudy
conditions otherwise.

Mixing up to 850mb where forecast aftn temps are 21-22c along with a
boundary layer with relatively high moisture content (top of the
mixed layer dewpoints 15-19c) yields highs around 100 for the
typically warmest areas of NE nj and nyc, with mid and upper 90s for
most other locations.

With high dewpoints through the boundary layer, surface dewpoints may
have a tough time mixing out with daytime heating, particularly
across south-facing coastal sections where winds are expected to
become more SW rather than wsw in the afternoon. The combination of
surface temps and dewpoints should still produce heat indices of at
least 105 for a good portion of the forecast area. Spots that could
fall short of this are along the immediate south coasts of both li
and SE ct. Not enough confidence to drop the warning for these
areas, so will continue with an excessive heat warning for the
entire forecast area.

See the climate section below for records high temps and record high
minimum temperatures. Some records may be tied or broken.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Friday
The record to near record warmth will last at least through Sunday,
with height falls starting to initiate late Sunday into Sunday night.

This scenario has been consistently demonstrated from run to run
within the global model operational suites. There have been some
slight timing differences at times with various runs of the
operational gem, but by in large there is very good consistently
with regard to the mass fields. Also the operational models for
the most part seem to be in step with the latest naefs ensemble
mean aloft.

A cold front will then approach the region Sunday night into Monday
from the great lakes, pushing across the region most likely on
Monday. This will break the high heat and humidity which will have
been in place throughout the weekend. Expect precipitation (showers
and thunderstorms) chances to increase from late Sunday and Sunday
night into Monday, with the best chances Monday afternoon and
evening. The guidance also indicates some potential for the region
to be in the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet which would
promote precipitation and thunderstorm chances. Late Monday night
into Tuesday is when the models begin to handle the details
differently and diverge a bit more in terms of the more derived
fields, and thus perhaps the sensible weather. Some guidance has the
front slowing down enough just offshore Monday night into Tuesday,
which would result in some additional lingering unsettled weather as
the front is advertised to be somewhat parallel to the upper
level flow. High pressure will gradually build into the area
from the west, with dry weather expected for the middle of the
week. Dewpoints should be markedly lower by early Tuesday, with
more comfortable conditions working in. However, questions
remain as to exactly how long clouds and any potentially
unsettled weather will linger for late Monday night and possibly
into a part of Tuesday.

Max temperatures in the long term will settle back closer to normal
by late Monday night into Tuesday, after near record and well above
average temperatures to begin the period.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Terminals will be situated between a frontal boundary across
the great lakes and high pressure over the western atlantic.

This will generally keep the areaVFR and under a SW flow this
weekend.

Stratus along the south shore of suffolk county, likely due to
frictional convergence of very moist air, is keeping kisp in
and out of MVFR ceilings. This may persist into early evening
until the flow veers more to the west after 00z. Only exception
would be brief MVFR ifr in any showers or thunderstorms, which
there will be a chance of near kswf this evening.

S-sw winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt this afternoon,
strongest at the nyc terminals. Winds decrease and veer more to
the W overnight, before reverting back to the SW late Saturday
morning.

Nyc metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 9 mi45 min S 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 75°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi63 min SSW 8 G 9.9 83°F 71°F1009.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi60 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 23 mi63 min SSW 13 G 15 82°F 73°F1010.5 hPa
44069 31 mi45 min SW 7.8 G 12 77°F 82°F75°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi57 min 88°F 75°F1009.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi57 min WSW 13 G 21 92°F 1009.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 47 mi63 min 94°F 78°F1010.2 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi57 min WSW 12 G 17
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 49 mi35 min S 16 G 18 79°F 78°F1010 hPa77°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY14 mi1.8 hrsSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F75°F70%1009.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi53 minSSW 1110.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1009.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT22 mi52 minSW 910.00 miFair89°F75°F63%1010 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi52 minSW 710.00 miFair82°F75°F82%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE7E4E4E53N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmW433SW3W4445S9S10S8S5
1 day agoE3E6
G19
N7NE3S7E4NW3CalmCalmSE5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE7E5E6E5E4E5E6
G14
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2 days agoS7S7S4S4S4CalmCalmW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W7W4W664CalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
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Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:45 PM EDT     7.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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77.87.66.54.93.11.50.40.21.12.64.367.17.36.65.33.72.31.20.81.42.74.4

Tide / Current Tables for Saugatuck River entrance, Connecticut
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Saugatuck River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:45 PM EDT     7.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.87.67.46.34.83.11.50.40.212.54.25.86.97.16.55.23.72.21.10.71.32.64.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.