Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:35PM Sunday April 18, 2021 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 317 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of sprinkles this evening.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds around 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 317 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A broad area of weak high pressure will remain over the region through Tue. A strong cold front then crosses the area Wed into Wed night. High pressure builds in Thu and Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 181919 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of weak high pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A strong cold front then crosses the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure briefly returns for the end of the work week into the first part of next weekend before another frontal system potentially impacts the area next Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Some sct sprinkles and lgt shwrs have developed this aftn. All activity has been weak per radar returns, and as sfc heating is lost thru 00Z, any pcpn is expected to dry up this eve. The 12Z NAM did indicate some additional activity across LI after 3Z, perhaps aided by any residual sea breeze boundary and weak shrtwv, but there is low confidence in this soln with the cooling bl. Have kept the fcst dry beyond 02Z, which is supported by the HRRR.

The extensive stratocu field that has developed extends across upstate NY and wwd thru all of PA. With a lack of strong subsidence tngt, the clouds may hang in a bit longer. The fcst has upped the model consensus cloud cover a bit as a result.

The NBM was used for temps tngt.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A subtle h7 wave is progged by all of the models to pass thru the cwa Mon. The timing right now looks to line up with peak heating, with the 17-23Z window the best for this activity. Across LI and most of coastal CT, the sly marine flow will keep the llvls stable. Elsewhere however, there should be enough instability and lack of any CIN to produce at least sct shwrs. Enough CAPE along with the wave should allow for at least a low tstm threat. Isold tstms have been included mainly across the interior.

The exit of the wave coincides with the loss of daytime heating, so Mon ngt has been kept dry.

The NBM has been used for temps, with local adjustments, for Mon and Mon ngt.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper ridging briefly builds across the area on Tuesday behind the departing shortwave. This should be enough to keep the area dry as a cold front crosses the region in the afternoon. With little in the way of dynamics and the parent system well to the north over southern Canada, expecting only an increase in clouds, primarily north and west of New York City. Under broad southwest flow, temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s away from the coastline, around 10 degrees above normal.

Clouds will then increase across the entire region Tuesday night ahead of a developing low across the Ohio Valley. Models remain in generally good agreement with this system, taking it into western New York by Wednesday morning, then continuing north into northern New England by Thursday morning. While the bulk of the precipitation is expected to hold off until after daybreak Wednesday, can't rule out a few showers popping up earlier, especially across the western half of the area. Precipitation chances will then increase from west to east through the morning hours, with the best chance of rain from mid afternoon into the first half of the evening as a strong cold front crosses the area. A few rumbles of thunder are possible during the afternoon as well, primarily for New York City and points north and west. Precipitation then comes to an end Wednesday night as the cold front pushes offshore.

Behind the front, much cooler air will be ushered into the region on Thursday, with gusty west flow developing as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low to the north and high pressure building to the southwest. As additional shortwaves round the base of the upper trough and a secondary cold front crosses the area, a few showers are possible on Thursday, especially to the north. Daytime highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal, only rising into the low to mid 50s.

As the low continues to pull away from the region and high pressure builds to the south, winds will decrease and dry conditions will return for Friday and Saturday. There is then general agreement in another system impacting the region during the Saturday night-Sunday time frame, although as would be expected at this range, significant timing and evolution differences remain. For now indicated chance PoPs late Saturday night through the day on Sunday, as at least some portion of this time period looks to be wet.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR with weak high pressure over the region through tonight.

Winds outside of sea breezes mainly WNW-WSW around 10 kt. SW to S winds with the sea breezes (KJFK, KBDR, KGON, KISP, and probably KLGA). Winds become light and/or variable overnight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Chance that sea breeze with SW winds doesn't reach KLGA later this afternoon. Chance that sea breeze with SSE winds reaches KEWR for a couple of hours sometime from 22-00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday PM. VFR. Slight chance of showers. Tuesday. VFR. Wednesday. MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunder from NYC metro on west. W gust around 25kt in the afternoon/early evening. Thursday. VFR. WNW gusts 25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls thru Wed mrng. Winds will then begin to increase as an area of low pressure and its associated cold front approach the waters Wednesday afternoon. Winds on the ocean will increase to 25 kt by late Wednesday afternoon, and on the remaining waters towards daybreak Thursday. Seas on the ocean will also increase to 5-7 ft. and remain elevated through the day on Thursday. While winds will fall below SCA criteria on the non-ocean waters Thursday night, gusts to around 25 kt and seas above 5 ft. will result in SCA conditions on the ocean through much of the day on Friday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/JMC NEAR TERM . JMC SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . FEB AVIATION . JC MARINE . FEB/JMC HYDROLOGY . FEB/JMC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 17 mi68 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 46°F1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi50 min 52°F 49°F1008.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi43 min W 18 G 20 52°F 1007.4 hPa35°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi50 min 58°F 1008.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi28 min SW 12 G 14 48°F 46°F1009.4 hPa42°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi50 min NNW 13 G 15 61°F 49°F1008.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi50 min W 5.1 G 11 61°F 49°F1008 hPa
44069 46 mi38 min SW 16 G 19 52°F 54°F44°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi75 minSW 10 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F40°F57%1009.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi74 minSW 10 G 17 mi57°F40°F53%1008.7 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi73 minSW 9 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F32°F36%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW8W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Southold, Long Island Sound, New York
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Southold
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Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.12.32.42.21.91.41.10.80.50.40.611.41.71.81.81.71.41.21.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.2-0.5-1-1.2-1.2-1-0.6-0.30.20.70.80.70.3-0.2-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.4-0.10.30.9

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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