Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:02 AM EDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1026 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1026 Pm Edt Sun Jun 20 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will be across the forecast waters tonight. A cold front will then slowly approach from late Monday into Tuesday, then pass east Tuesday night. High pressure settles over the northeast Wednesday then shifts offshore. NExt frontal system approaches new york from the west near the end of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 210235 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1035 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly approach from the west late Monday into Tuesday, then passes east Tuesday night. High pressure settles over the Northeast Wednesday then shifts offshore. Next frontal system approaches New York from the west near the end of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. The best CAPE and instability, and low level lapse rates were across southeastern Pennsylvania with little CAPE across the forecast area. So, not expected any showers or thunderstorms for the remainder of the night, as convection across eastern Pennsylvania will weaken.

Updated to increase cloud cover, mainly across the coastal areas with the expectation of stratus developing.

Otherwise, a warm and humid night is in store with dew points into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s or lower 70s. Some patchy fog development is also possible as the moisture at the surface becomes trapped under an inversion as the atmosphere decouples tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday will be another warm and muggy day as temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s and potentially lower 90s in and around the immediate NYC metro. Dew points tomorrow will remains in the upper 60s and potentially lower 70s allowing for the heat index in the afternoon to reach into the middle to upper 90s for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC metro, and NE NJ.

A pre-frontal trough approaches from the west with the possibility of showers and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening. The timing of these storms is still a bit uncertain as many CAMs have much of the convection approaching the area after 7 or 8PM. Regardless, any strong storm can produce gusty winds along with heavy rain as PWATs will be 1.5 - 1.8". Much of the convective activity should weaken fairly quickly as it approaches Long Island and CT as it should be after sunset and it encounters a more stable airmass.

Meanwhile, whatever is left of Claudette will pass well to the southeast tomorrow afternoon with little if any impact for the area.

The chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm remains through much of the evening and into the overnight though coverage should be scattered at best. The cold front approaches the area during the morning on Tuesday with much of the precip generated by it falling in its wake. Though an isolated thunderstorm will be possible, much of the precipitation should be in the form of rain showers during much of the day on Tuesday. Highs will be in the 70s.

Behind the cold front, dew points and temps fall a bit with lows on Tuesday night in the 50s with the warmest locations being by the immediate coastline. Any showers end overnight Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Dry conditions expected to start the long term as a +1020 mb high pressure system builds behind an exiting mid-level trough Wednesday and settles into New England through the middle of next week. The area will likely see 1000-500 mb RH values less than 10% overhead with PWAT values falling to less than half an inch. This means rain chances are near zero until Friday. Expected afternoon temperatures in the low 80s and upper 70s which are near diurnal averages.

Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week. This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around 1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for Friday.

Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure remains over the area tonight, then drifts offshore Monday as a pre frontal trough nears the area by Monday evening.

VFR until late tonight/toward Monday morning, with MVFR conditions developing. Areas of IFR possible at KHPN, KBDR, KISP, and KGON. Improvement to VFR Monday morning, and may be earlier than forecast at the New York City terminals. There is a chance MVFR ceilings remain at KISP, and KGON through the TAF period.

Winds S to SW less than 10kt, with outlying terminals becoming light and variable. Southerly winds increase to 10-15kt, and around 15kt at KJFK. Gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon, with the higher gusts in the NYC metro areas. Gusts end and winds diminish Monday evening.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments late tonight and into Monday for developing MVFR, possibly brief IFR conditions. Improvement to VFR by 16Z. Southerly winds become gusty, 20-25kt, in the afternoon with the timing possibly off an hour or so.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night. MVFR with a chance of shra/tstms. Tuesday. MVFR or lower. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday. VFR. Friday. Mainly VFR. A slight chance of MVFR with shra and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Seas remain sub-SCA through tonight and early Monday. Ahead of a cold front winds on the ocean rise to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25kts during the afternoon. Seas will also rise to around 5 feet by Monday afternoon and into at least Monday night as whatever is left of Claudette passes by well to the southeast.Have issued a Small Craft Advisory on the ocean waters for this timeframe. Seas look to stay elevated Tuesday into Tuesday night as well so SCA may have to be extended.

As a high builds into the marine zones, winds relax to 5-10 kts with waves falling to around 3 feet through the middle of next week. As the high shifts over the Atlantic Friday winds strengthen slightly out of the southwest increasing to around 13-17kts. By the end of the weekend SCA conditions may be possible with the arrival of the next frontal boundary with waves over the ocean increasing the more than 5 feet.

HYDROLOGY. Some downpours are possible late Monday and Tue, with nuisance flooding a possibility.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A moderate rip current risk is forecast at the ocean beaches for Monday and Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi123 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 67°F1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi45 min 68°F 66°F1008.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi53 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 1008.5 hPa60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi45 min 69°F 73°F1009.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi23 min SSW 9.7 G 12 66°F 65°F1009.1 hPa65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi45 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 73°F 68°F1008.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi45 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 68°F1007.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi69 minVar 4 mi69°F67°F93%1009.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi70 minS 34.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1009.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi67 minSE 39.00 miFair68°F65°F90%1008.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW5SW3SW66W5W6W9W5W54546SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
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Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:59 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.30.10.30.81.41.92.32.42.21.81.30.80.40.20.411.82.53.13.33.32.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:38 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:06 PM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.20.61.11.210.5-0.3-1.1-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.8-0.20.61.41.81.61.20.4-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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