Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:48 AM   Moonset 10:47 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 733 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this evening. Scattered showers after midnight. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 733 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A back door cold front moves through and just south of the area tonight, and then becomes nearly stationary into Tuesday. A frontal wave moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure settles across Thursday, followed potentially by a back door cold front on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 300534 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 134 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A back door cold front becomes nearly stationary west of the area into Tuesday. A couple of frontal waves then move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Weak high pressure settles across Thursday, followed potentially by a back door cold front on Friday. A weakening frontal system approaches for the second half of the weekend, followed by high pressure building early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
With the loss of daytime heating and the front slowly sagging south, look for just a couple of isolated showers perhaps as the higher instability fields retreat to the west as there is no longer enough support for any significant or organized convection. A few showers can be seen on current radar imagery in eastern CT. Keeping chance/slight chance precip probabilities tonight as some shortwave energy moves into the upper ridge.
Chances of precipitation will be limited by the upper ridge in the vicinity with dry upper levels and subsidence. Also, with an east to southeast flow a low level inversion will set up. Low level clouds have developed beneath the low level inversion, starting along the coast this evening, then expanding westward overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A nearly stationary boundary is expected to remain to the west and southwest of the region, possibly moving slightly northward as a warm front later Tuesday, and then shift northward as developing wave along the boundary track through the coastal areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. An east to southeast flow behind the back door front will persist Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping a maritime airmass across the region. After well above normal temperatures Monday, temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals Tuesday through Wednesday. The area will be capped, and there is little to no elevated CAPE so will not mention any chances of thunder.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
An uncertain long term period in terms of the details, especially with respect to the behavior of a back door cold front late this week, along with the timing of a weakening frontal system towards the second half of the weekend.

With respect to the beginning of the period for Thursday and Friday look for mainly dry conditions. A warm front lifts north of the area Wed night into Thursday. After seasonable temperatures Wednesday night, temperatures should be able to get above normal once again during Thursday as 850 mb temps attempt to climb above 10 C once again as heights build. With a weak pressure gradient in place an onshore flow will attempt to develop during the day. This will make the temperatures forecast difficult, especially closer to the coast.
Went above NBM for the most part with respect to temps, especially further inland where the effects of any light onshore flow out of the SE would be minimized. Towards Friday much of the guidance is now pointing towards the warm front that lift north of the area to become stationary, then settle south as a cold front from the north and northeast as high pressure along the Eastern Canadian coast attempts to build south. This will likely aid in the cold front getting driven further south and into the area Friday. For now have kept PoPs minimal across northeastern portions of the CWA late Thursday and into Friday, although a few sprinkles or light showers cannot be ruled out but any moisture from the boundary should be rather shallow. Temperatures overall into Friday should average a bit closer to normal, with warmer temperatures further south and west and cooler temperatures further north and east.

For the weekend the global guidance has gradually slowed the progression of a weakening frontal boundary. This is mainly because heights attempt to rise again across the area and this will make any eastward progression of showers ahead of the cold front more difficult. Have introduced slight chance and chance showers for the day Saturday, but model trends and latest consensus pointing to Saturday remaining predominantly dry. Thus, Saturday night into Sunday appears to be the time frame for relatively higher chance PoPs as the boundary slowly pushes into the region. Look for more in the way of clouds, but a washout of the second half of the weekend is looking less likely at this time as the upper level ridge over the areas doesn't really break down until the day on Sunday. Will continue the shower chances through Sunday night, with PoPs decreasing into Monday AM. High pressure should build behind the weakened boundary later Monday and into Tuesday of next week. Warmer temperatures may return on Monday as 850 mb temps warm once again.
This far out sfc winds are always in question this time of year, but the guidance consensus is suggestive of a SW flow which would get a large majority of the area above NBM guidance. For now have went warmer than the NBM guidance for Monday as clouds should begin to break.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A back door cold front becomes stationary to the south and west this morning. A weak wave of low pressure passes across the terminals this evening.

IFR ceilings are beginning to develop across NYC terminals and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. This trend is expected to continue through 09z with expansion eastward towards KISP and KBDR. Ceilings may remain MVFR at KISP/KBDR and there is a chance KGON does not lower till near day break. Ceilings should then gradually lift back to MVFR 14-16z with potential of VFR returning in the afternoon (19-21z). MVFR should return tonight after 00z, but exact and extent is uncertain.

Showers are possible this evening and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

E-ENE through the TAF period mainly 10 kt or less. The flow should begin to back towards the NE or NNE this evening into tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Higher confidence in IFR ceilings through 14-15z. Lower confidence in visibilities through 12z. There is a chance visibilities could be slightly lower than forecast at times through 12z.

Timing of improving flight categories may be off by 1-3 hours.

Adjustments to timing of showers this evening possible. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: MVFR/IFR conditions with showers possible.

Wednesday: Becoming VFR. Chance of a shower early.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR afternoon into the night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient remains in place over the coastal waters leading to an extended period of sub small craft conditions. Ocean seas are expected to be at 2-3 feet through the remainder of the week. Small craft conditions are not expected to potentially return until late in the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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