Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dering Harbor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated showers remain possible primarily over the Hudson Valley and possibly into northern NJ this afternoon.

2) Dry and seasonably warm weather expected Sunday into Monday before hot and humid conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Brief minor tidal flooding likely this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Late morning showers have largely exited to the south. However, isolated showers have developed to the north of the CWA and are currently moving south/southeast. Instability and moisture are much lower to the north so generally expect showers to diminish throughout the afternoon. PoPs through this afternoon are generally confined to the Hudson Valley with a low-end chance over northern New Jersey. The greatest chance of showers in NJ may be to the west of the CWA Rainfall rates may be briefly moderate, but do not anticipate any flooding issues.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Canadian high pressure will build southeast into the region tonight through Monday. This will result in dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures with comfortable humidity values. Heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge builds in from the west Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s both days with heat index values of 95+ degrees possible areawide Tuesday and most likely on Wednesday, although there is some uncertainty in dew points/mixing depth (lower dew points and more mixing could help limit heat index values). Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. If the current forecast holds, a Heat Advisory would be needed for Tuesday/Wednesday due to 2 days of apparent temperatures of 95+ degrees. The ridge will begin to break down as an upper trough pushes southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday, which will allow the heat and humidity to decrease late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3
The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water toward the coastline in an E flow today and Sunday will bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that look most susceptible at this time are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield, southern Nassau/Queens, and tidal areas of NE NJ and Staten Island. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations covering the late day/early evening high tide cycles today and Sunday.

The threat may linger longer into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at that time would be brief/minor.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A frontal boundary will remain south of the terminals.
Meanwhile, high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest through Sunday.

Expect a mainly VFR forecast outside of any showers early this afternoon. Most of the shower activity is expected to end by or around 20-22z. The airmass will be gradually drying out from north to south today which will lessen the chances into later afternoon and evening hours.

N/NE winds 5-10kt will gradually veer to the E/ESE during the afternoon. Winds will then diminish this evening becoming light and variable before becoming NE, towards daybreak Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours. Amendments may be needed for the timing and coverage of any showers.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday through Thursday: VFR expected. Tue and Wed SW-WSW wind G15-20kt

MARINE
Winds/waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. East/northeast winds may briefly increase to 15G20kt as the high builds in late tonight/early Sunday morning which could allow waves to build to around 4ft for a few hours. Light southerly flow is expected on Monday with gusts to 20 knots possible Monday evening into Monday night. The next solid chance of SCA conditions will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as southwest winds increase and ocean waves build to 3 to 6 feet (highest waves will be in eastern ocean zones). Gusts may approach 30 knots in the eastern ocean zones during this time.

Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate rip risk (E to W longshore current dominant) for today and Sunday with 1-2 ft S/SE swells, and 3 ft E wind waves.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.