Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dering Harbor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gusty winds and dry conditions continue through Monday.

2) Next week, weak frontal systems with potential stronger low pressure approach towards weeks end. Mainly dry initially but chances of rain Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Strong upper level low continues to move towards the Canadian Maritimes with its associated surface low retrograding back northwest within Southeast Canada. In the mid levels, the region will be in between shortwaves, with some ridging taking place.
Surface high pressure remains well south and west as the low strengthens as it moves farther northeast from the local area.

Winds will remain elevated as the pressure gradient persists with low temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

For Sunday, temperatures will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect gusty winds to persist through Monday as the pressure gradient persisting between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure to our south and west.

Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to near 50 with Monday's high in the upper 50s to low 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Mid levels transition from WNW to ESE type flow to more SW to NE towards the end of the week. At the surface, a few frontal systems pass within the early to midweek period, but they are weak in magnitude. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail.

Towards the end of next week, more of a low pressure influence develops with more meridional flow aloft. Models are indicating both the potential of larger low pressure area as well as a stronger low pressure area. Forecast has more chances of rain Thursday through Friday as a result. Too early to determine assessment for any impacts with model run to run variability with regard to the position of the low and orientation of upper level trough.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low lifts north and northeast of the area overnight into Sunday.

Generally VFR conditions. Some MVFR ceilings seems less likely overnight and have taken TEMPOs out of many terminals, though they remain for KSWF, KBDR, KHPN and KGON. VFR conditions expected to prevail much, if not all of today.

W to NW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts 15-25 kt overnight. Gusts should be more occasional overnight for a few terminals, especially outlying terminals. Overall, gusts should largely diminish by late this afternoon as the winds shift more to the W-WSW.

A brief period of light rain showers may impact some terminals until around 08-09z overnight with the upper level low nearby. Any rain showers over the next few hours are not expected to have any impact to flight rule categories.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional at times overnight. Timing and duration of MVFR ceilings may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Late Sunday night: VFR. W-WSW winds 5 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts to around 20 kt.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in possible showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Breezy conditions today through Monday. SCA extended into Monday morning for the ocean waters.

For non-ocean zones, SCA continues into the day on Sunday.

The pressure gradient will remain rather steep between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure well to the southwest through Monday. Winds trend more downward next week Monday night into midweek allowing for mainly sub-SCA conditions except for the ocean which may very well have some lingering swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.