Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Pocono, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:37PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:16 AM EST (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 11:06AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S early this afternoon, then becoming E around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of flurries this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Pocono, PA
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location: 41.07, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160944 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 444 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will slowly lift into the area Monday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the warm front will move across the area on Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. An Arctic cold front will move through the region on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build in for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Phase one of the winter-weather event will begin this morning as a weak midlevel perturbation progresses quickly east through the Great Lakes and Northeast downstream of a central-U.S. positively-tilted trough and attendant developing surface low in the Mid-South. A northeastward-extending baroclinic zone will aid in sustained isentropic ascent in the northern Mid-Atlantic today. As a relative maximum in frontogenetic lift approaches the area this morning, should see precipitation become more widespread near and south of the I-76 corridor during and especially after the morning commute. However, this precipitation has its work cut out for it, as the low levels are dry (generally several degrees drier than model guidance), thanks to the residual effects of a nearby surface high. The CMC seems to be handling this best, and its timing appears to be slowest with precipitation onset. However, the drier air also suggests that wet-bulbing will be a dominant player in surface temperatures and low-level thermal profiles this morning, allowing for most precipitation to fall as snow (once the cooling occurs). The question will be how quickly precipitation develops and becomes snow. The extent of dry air near the surface would suggest this process may be slow, but frontogenetic lift may compensate for this fairly quickly. With consensus of high-resolution guidance indicating snow may get going by the end of the morning commute, did not want to change current winter weather advisory along the I-76 corridor this morning yet and will monitor trends. Regarding snow amounts, expecting generally sub-advisory amounts, but should snow rates be fairly substantial or snow mix with sleet (as some of the high-res guidance indicates), slippery conditions could readily develop.

Temperatures are expected to warm slowly from south to north today, so transition to rain is expected as the day wears on. Additionally, the frontogenetic lift should wane as large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned perturbation moves away from the area. Expecting to see a lull in intensity/coverage of precipitation this afternoon, as a result. However, a light wintry mix may continue near and north of the I-76 corridor, with generally rain to the south. Farther north, the close proximity of the surface high should really inhibit northward progress of the precipitation. Areas near/north of I-80 may be dry through most of the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Phase two of the winter-weather event should begin in earnest this evening as the developing surface low in the lower Mississippi Valley lifts northeast through the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a strong upper-level jet streak will acquire anticyclonic curvature, allowing for enhanced lift in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic in the favored right entrance region. With the continued presence of the low-level baroclinic zone, sustained isentropic ascent will be enhanced as a synoptically-induced low-level jet impinges upon the thermal gradient overnight. This will produce a large area of precipitation, likely becoming moderate to locally heavy during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning.

The low-level jet and associated warm advection will successfully generate a warm nose aloft as near-surface air struggles to warm above freezing (generally north/west of the I-95 corridor). As a result, much of the precipitation that develops during the evening will be a mixture of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. A fairly lengthy period of icing is expected, especially northwest of the Fall Line, through the overnight hours. However, precipitation type is likely to vary with time, as enhanced precipitation will act to cool the column sufficiently for changeover to sleet/snow at times. High- resolution model guidance is rather consistent in showing this around 06z Tuesday, coinciding with the nocturnal maximum in the low-level jet and associated frontogenetic lift in the CWA. Such a switchover would likely lead to a burst of heavier sleet/snow, which may make travel quickly hazardous. With periods of icing on either side of this transition, travel impacts may become quite substantial during the overnight hours. With time, near- surface air will warm to or slightly above freezing from southeast to northwest in the advisory area, but this process is likely to be slow owing to the strength of the retreating surface high and ageostrophic effects via cold-air damming.

Forecast surface temperatures were based largely on the colder guidance, owing to the above considerations. As a result, decided to extend much of the advisory through the Tuesday morning commute for southeast PA and northern/central NJ. The advisory was extended through early afternoon in the Lehigh Valley and adjacent Warren/Morris Counties in NJ and through the afternoon in the southern Poconos and northwest NJ, where sub- freezing temperatures are likely to persist through the day. Ice accumulations up to a quarter inch are expected in much of these areas, though confidence in amounts is rather low owing to several anticipated precipitation transitions. Given the signal for a burst of snow during the overnight hours when frontogenetic lift is maximized, snow amounts were increased northwest of the Fall Line as well, though I am expecting these totals to be rather variable, elevation-dependent, and transient given the near-freezing surface temperatures.

Southeast of the I-95 corridor, precipitation will likely be predominantly rain, with any winter-related travel impacts likely over by or after the evening commute. Rain may become somewhat showery on Tuesday, and there are even indications that some marginal instability reaches Delmarva and far southern New Jersey by Tuesday afternoon. Did not include mention of thunder at this point, but certainly cannot rule it out. As a matter of fact, some hi-res guidance indicates a convective line may develop near/south of the southern CWA during the afternoon as a cold front moves through.

One thing to watch will be rainfall totals near/southeast of the urban corridor. Consensus model QPF is generally 1-2 inches in a swath encompassing southeast PA, central/southern NJ, and northern Delmarva. These amounts may be enough for some localized/poor-drainage flooding. Such potential would be exacerbated by convectively-enhanced rainfall.

As the cold front advances through the area by Tuesday evening, precipitation will quickly shut off, with snow showers remaining over the Poconos Tuesday night. Expecting most of the precipitation to be done before a switchover to snow in the rest of the CWA, but cannot rule it out entirely Tuesday evening.

Finally, winds behind the front will begin to gust up to 25 mph or so, especially in the higher terrain of the northern CWA. Should ice accumulations be significant in these areas, some tree damage and power outages are possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Main forecast problems for the medium-range period are passage of an arctic cold front on Wednesday and poor model continuity this weekend.

As the early-week system moves offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday, a strong/digging shortwave trough will move into the Northeast on Wednesday. An attendant (reinforcing) cold front will move through the CWA during the day, which may be accompanied by some snow showers/squalls. Model soundings certainly look favorable for snow squalls, with a deep mixed layer developing during the afternoon near and upstream of the front. Some marginal surface-based instability may develop in this regime, with winds atop the mixed layer of 40+ kt. The question remains the organization of the precipitation that develops, with the stronger large-scale lift generally north of the area. Most models depict precipitation waning by the time it reaches the CWA, which is also fairly late in the day. Thus, expect the best chances for snow showers/squalls to be in the far northern CWA, where I have increased PoPs a little bit. Cannot rule out this potential farther southeast (as in the 00z ECMWF), but would like to see a little more model agreement before getting more aggressive with this potential.

The bigger story will likely be the winds and cold, with wind gusts 25 to 40 mph by Wednesday afternoon/evening and very cold air moving into the region. Wind chills will fall to the single digits by Wednesday night (sub-zero in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey), with only muted recovery on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will likely be below freezing everywhere except central/southern Delmarva. However, winds should begin to decrease Thursday and Thursday night as a surface ridge approaches the area. A slow warming trend is expected Friday and Saturday.

The forecast becomes quite uncertain this weekend, with poor run-to-run model continuity and even worse model-to-model agreement. There are still indications of a low developing near the East Coast, but the loose trend the past 24 hours is for a more suppressed and farther offshore system. Stuck close to forecast continuity combined with a consensus blend for the weekend, which keeps low chances for precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night, for now.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR conditions are expected overnight with increasing mid level clouds. Initial bands of precipitation could get as far north as Wilmington between 10 and 12Z, and if they do, then reductions to MVFR conditions are possible at that terminal. Winds will become light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday . VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR through the morning and eventually IFR for much of the region by the afternoon as precipitation moves in. Precipitation is expected to start as mostly light snow but should mix with sleet between 15 and 20Z, before changing over to rain or freezing rain 21Z or later. The TAF sites from the I-95 corridor and points south should become all rain by the evening. Light and variable winds early will become northeast to east 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence in the overall trend, but low confidence in the details especially with the timing of the transitions.

Monday night . IFR or lower will predominate with rain for the I-95 TAF sites and points south and a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain farther north and west for KRDG and KABE. Winds mainly E/NE 5-10 knots.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Sub-VFR in rain, except freezing rain possible at KABE. NE winds become NW around 10 knots.

Tuesday night . Improving conditions through the night. NW winds 5-10 knots with some higher gusts of 15-20 knots possible.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening snow shower or squall with brief sub-VFR conditions especially north of TTN. West-northwest wind of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible, diminishing overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday-Friday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming light and variable on Friday. High confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas continue to diminish with conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels at this hour. Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions through Monday and Monday night. There will, however be some rain around for Monday and Monday night and this could lead to visibility restrictions.

Outlook .

Tuesday . SCA winds/seas probable with VSBY restrictions.

Tuesday night . SCA conditions with strong NW winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . SCA conditions expected with a period of gale force conditions possible due to northwest winds gusting up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA conditions may linger into Thursday morning, but are expected to diminish below advisory levels for the afternoon through the overnight.

Friday . Sub SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ061-062. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ060-103>106. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ054-055. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ070-071. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ101-102. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ009-010-012-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ016>019. DE . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . Fitzsimmons Marine . Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 80 mi40 min Calm G 1 36°F 40°F1023.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 80 mi52 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 40°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA15 mi23 minNW 510.00 miOvercast24°F16°F71%1022.4 hPa
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA19 mi22 minNE 410.00 miOvercast29°F16°F58%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPO

Wind History from MPO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE6SE11SE11SE6SE6SE8SE6E4E5E4E5E5E6E6E5E6E5E8NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:09 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:01 AM EST     6.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:00 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:54 PM EST     5.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.93.92.61.30.4-00.31.53.3566.365.13.62.10.8-0-0.40.11.42.94.25

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EST     7.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:43 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     8.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.301.956.87.37.264.32.91.810.40.21.75.17.88.58.47.55.74.132

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.