Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holiday Pocono, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:53PM Sunday September 27, 2020 3:50 AM EDT (07:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 339 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning. Slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 339 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak area of low pressure off the mid atlantic drifts northward today. High pressure over the atlantic establishes the flow for the beginning of the week. A broad slow moving frontal system will then impact the area for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holiday Pocono, PA
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location: 41.07, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 270738 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 338 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough is expected to approach our region from the southwest tonight into Monday. A cold front is expected to arrive in our region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another cold front, this one much weaker, may arrive Thursday night into Friday. In the wake of these pair of cold fronts, cooler air will settle in over the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will gradually lift and should become more of a stratus deck by mid-morning.

Low pressure off the Delmarva coast this morning will push northward along the New Jersey Coast through today. This will keep an easterly flow across the forecast once again today. With plenty of moisture in place, cannot rule out some more showers across the region as the low passes off our coast but they will likely be more isolated through day as most of the precipitation stays closer to the center of the low.

Some drying will once again take place again today as the winds help to mix down some dry air from aloft. While we should have fairly cloudy skies, expect there to be some breaks or areas of clearing as we head through the afternoon. With breaks and some thinning of the cloud deck, expect ample surface heating to take place with highs reaching into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area. If the clouds hang around longer this morning and fewer breaks occur, would expect temps to be slightly cooler.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. The aforementioned low, will continue to track north and east off of Long Island through tonight with a mid level shortwave rotating through late tonight. With the low pulling away, a continued southerly flow, and the shortwave moving through, expect there would some chances for spotty showers through the night.

Once again the skies will cloud up with low clouds and possibly some patchy fog. This will limit cooling overnight and expect lows to be remain the 60s across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview: The focus of the long term is on the cold front approaching the region Tuesday through Wednesday. During this period, heavy rain is possible.

Details:

Monday . Several models are depicting the mid level shortwave trough slightly slower as compared to previous model runs. Consequently, we may not see much of a break in showers before we start to see the first rain in response to the main, deep, mid and upper level trough approaching from the Upper Mid West. Therefore, have kept some mention of showers throughout this period. Though this will not be a washout as I expect the coverage of showers to be quite limited through this period.

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the region through this period. The front will initially be associated with a surface low centered over Ontario/Quebec. However, another low is expected to develop along the front over the southeastern U.S. in response to a digging mid level trough. This should lead to the front slowing, and possibly even stalling over (or just west of) our region.

What has changed: The biggest change in this period is that the threat for heavy rain has increased, and will include a mention in the HWO. Another big change is that the GFS (which had been one of the most progressive solutions) and the ECMWF (which had been the slowest solution) are pretty close with the track and timing with the 00Z runs. Interestingly, CMC which had been a good middle of the road solution, now shows a progressive open wave trough. The forecast hasn't changed much though as the GFS/ECMWF solution is close to what we already had in the forecast.

Timing: Showers could move in as early as Monday night. The front should arrive in Eastern PA as early as the later half of Tuesday. As it slows and stalls, it likely won't be fully off shore until sometime during the day on Wednesday.

Hazards: The longer the front stalls or at least slows, the longer our region will be in southerly return flow (resulting in low level moisture advection). Consequently, precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches will be possible, especially over the coastal plains. The 90th percentile of pwat at IAD for late September is about 1.5 inches, so needless to say if this happens, pwats will be well above normal. Additionally the warm cloud layer will likely be very deep for late September. Also, low and mid level flow could be close to parallel of the front, which could increase the threat for training storms/showers. Therefore, will mention the potential for heavy rain in the HWO. However, have chosen to hold off on a flash flood watch at this point given the poor run to run consistency we have seen so far, especially with the timing of the front (timing will be key to the threat for heavy rain). As for other storm hazards, agree with the previous shift that while there is significant effective shear (30 to 40 kt), instability looks to be very limited at this point, so the threat for severe storms is also very limited.

Thursday through Saturday . In the wake of the main cold front, cooler air settles in over the region. A secondary cold front could arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. However, with persistent dry air advection starting as early as Wednesday afternoon, limited moisture may prevent any rain with the secondary front.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . IFR/LIFR conditions through this morning, becoming MVFR at all sites by around 15Z. Guidance continues to show some drying out as the winds mix some during the day and expect we should be able to have a period of VFR again this afternoon. East to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence overall but lower confidence on exact timing of flight category changes. Low confidence on VFR occurring at all TAF sites.

Tonight . Possible VFR conditions at the start tonight will drop back down to MVFR and then continue to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR overnight. Isolated showers are possible overnight along with areas of patchy fog. Light south to southeast winds less than 5 knots. Moderate confidence overall but low confidence on fog development and timing of lower conditions.

Outlook .

Monday . Prevailing VFR conditions are expected, though brief reductions to MVFR conditions are possible with chances of rain showers. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday . A cold front will approach the area from the west Tuesday with southerly winds increasing from 10 to 15 kts. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are likely with transient IFR conditions in periods of heavy rain. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms embedded in the larger area of showers. Surface low pressure will then head northeast along and near Interstate 95 Wednesday with a surface cold front crossing the zones later. Behind the cold front winds will turn from the west/northwest 10 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

Thursday . Lingering showers, especially in the morning could result in MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with southwest winds around 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft advisory criteria through tonight. East to northeast winds around 10 knots during the day becoming southerly around 10 to 15 knots tonight. Seas will be around 2 to 4 feet on the ocean and around 1 to 2 feet in the Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Monday . Winds and seas will slowly build Monday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Conditions should remain just below SCA criteria.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Seas ans southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a cold front on Wednesday night. SCA conditions, especially for seas are possible.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Monday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Meola Short Term . Meola Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson/Meola Marine . Johnson/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 80 mi74 min E 2.9 G 4.1 66°F 68°F1015.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 80 mi50 min Calm G 0 66°F 66°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA15 mi57 minS 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1016.5 hPa
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA19 mi56 minVar 38.00 miOvercast66°F63°F90%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPO

Wind History from MPO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E5E5SE7E4SE8E5SE6SE6SE5SE4E3E4E6SE8SE7SE8S3S5
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE74SE6E6S6S4CalmCalmCalmS3S5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW4NW6W5NW4CalmW4W5W43W4SW5SW9S6S6SW5SW4W4W5W4W5NW4NW5NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:09 PM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.93.14.25.15.354.23.42.41.50.91.123.34.65.76.265.24.231.7

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:14 PM EDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.67.66.35.242.710.11.33.356.77.97.56.24.83.62.51.40.51.33.65.57

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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