Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM   Moonset 5:39 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers until early morning. Patchy fog early this evening. Areas of fog late this evening and early morning, then patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 335 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 062050 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 450 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Overall a very unsettled pattern in place this week. A cold front approaching from the west will work its way through the region tonight before becoming nearly stationary south of Delmarva. Low pressure tracks along the front late tonight through Tuesday morning.
Another area of low pressure passes through the region on Wednesday followed by a stronger low on Thursday. A cold front passes through on Friday. Several disturbances are possible this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will slowly slide south across the forecast area tonight. With the best Omega and RH across the southern half of the forecast area, PoPs will be highest here for the overnight.

Showers can be expected with embedded thunderstorms. As alluded to, most of the rain should be confined to areas south of Philadelphia, but can't rule out a few showers as far north as the I-78 corridor.

As for rainfall, a quarter to a half inch of rain can be anticipated down around southern New Jersey and Delmarva.

Although there is a cold front expected tonight, fog is once again in the forecast, and it could be dense in spots. Drier air will be slow to move in and there is very little wind accompanying the front.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Weak low pressure will be just east of Delaware Tuesday morning.
This will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the daybreak hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease by lunchtime as low pressure moves offshore.
PoPs won't be zero for the remainder of the day, but the most widespread precipitation should be in the morning.

Afternoon highs will be in the 70s.

Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area later in the day.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area Tuesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the evening and then become likely for most of the region after midnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning as that warm front lifts through the region. Precipitation tapers off by midday Wednesday, and then a warm and humid airmass will be in place. Highs top off in the mid to upper 80s, except for the low 80s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and in the 70s along the coasts. Surface dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon.

Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday night, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into portions of southeast Pennsylvania and Delmarva late Wednesday night. As the main surface low tracks towards western New York and Pennsylvania, a secondary low will develop out ahead of this primary low, resulting in more widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms moving into the region Thursday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north of the region.
Global guidance has indicated some instability as the warm front lifts north, suggesting the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms south of the warm front during the afternoon, but exactly how far north the warm front progresses will greatly determine the coverage of any strong to severe storms in our forecast area. At the moment, it remains too uncertain to mention anything more specific at this time. Even the afternoon high temperatures will be highly variant on where the warm front ends up, with low to mid 60s north of the front and mid to upper 70s south. Showers and storms will taper off Thursday night as the storm system shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening. Yet another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the area during that time.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure builds east.
Several weak disturbances may touch off some afternoon showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Highs will then be in the 60s for southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low to mid 70s in Delmarva on Friday.
Below normal highs expected for Saturday and Sunday, generally in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...MVFR/VFR conditions are likely to drop to IFR around midnight or so
Fog is possible once again
and it may be dense.
Winds will be light and variable. Higher confidence the terminals see IFR, but lower confidence on how thick or widespread the fog will become.

Tuesday...After some IFR in the morning, visibilities and ceilings are expected to rise into the VFR category. Light E to NE winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions at night in fog and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub-VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Mainly a light south wind with seas 2 to 3 feet
Areas of fog
possibly dense.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Light south winds becoming NE 5 to 10 kts. Seas 2 to 4 feet
Areas of morning fog
possibly dense.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The latest TWL forecasts have just been issued 5PM Monday. There are not many changes from the earlier fcsts. Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still minor tidal flooding is possible beginning tomorrow evening and perhaps Wed/Thu evening as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued overnight if trends remain.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Brunswick
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Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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New Brunswick, New Jersey, Tide feet

Trenton
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Mon -- 01:41 AM EDT     9.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:06 PM EDT     9.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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