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LMZ745 Expires:202312112230;;291179 Fzus53 Klot 111549 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 949 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz744-745-112230- gary to burns harbor in-burns harbor to michigan city in- 949 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm cst this evening through late Tuesday night...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt subsiding to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late.

LMZ700
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 111806 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 106 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lake effect low clouds will dissipate from west to east into early this evening. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures for the first half of the week will slowly climb to above normal by the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lake effect precip will continue to wind down this morning as midlevel trough axis exits and subsidence inversion heights steadily lower. Low level winds also back quickly 12-18Z becoming southwesterly by this afternoon. Latest hi-res guidance does suggest some isolated showers may persist a few hours after 12Z and have extended slight chance PoP's accordingly but this activity will be very light and very isolated if it does occur. We will also continue to see increasing lack of ice nucleation as inversion heights lower supporting more light drizzle/mist than snow. However, extremely light QPF and still relatively warm ground/road temps will likely prevent any impacts to the morning commute. Dry conditions assured by midday though there is enough residual boundary layer moisture to support lingering stratocu until late afternoon. This will keep a lid on high temps with latest guidance suggesting highs may struggle to get much above the mid 30s. WAA and a steady SW gradient will offset clearing skies tonight and expect lows to hold in the mid/upper 20s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

WAA continues into Tue ahead of a cold front being driven by northern Lakes midlevel trough. Moisture return and forcing for ascent are virtually nil for our area and no precip is expected (just a few midlevel clouds early in the day). Late day arrival may allow our SE zones to climb into the mid 40s while NW zones struggle to reach 40F. Strong subsidence/high pressure then settles into the Ohio Valley for Wed setting us up for some chilly nights with ideal radiational cooling. Lows near 20F are expected with highs on Wed again only around 40F.

Slow but steady moderation in temps expected through the weekend as low level ridge slowly moves east. Highs near 50F possible by the weekend. Continued split flow will keep our area mostly dry. Low chance of precip Fri night/Sat as next northern stream shortwave moves through the area. Still a ton of spread with this small-scale feature though and latest NBM came in almost entirely dry through the whole period. Still some low chances for rain but definitely not much as typical El Nino pattern maintains an active southern jet stream locking up better moisture well to our south.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Resolving the ending time of 2500-3500 foot cigs remains the primary aviation forecast challenge. Backed southwesterly flow will continue to advect much drier low level air eastward from Illinois through this afternoon. Timing of improvement to VFR has been kept largely intact from previous forecast, with perhaps slightly later scattering at KFWA to the 23Z-00Z timeframe.

A strong upper level vort tracking across south central Canada will reach the northern Great Lakes Tuesday morning. A fairly strong southwest gradient and weak pocket of sfc pressure falls drifting across Michigan will allow for southerly flow to ramp up overnight. Confidence in sfc wind gusts is low as strengthening low level inversion could temper gusts tonight. Did include a 3 to 5 hour window of marginal LLWS conditions from west to east at terminals tonight. Associated cold front will pass across northern Indiana on Tuesday allowing for steeper low level lapse rates and westerly gusts into the 20-25 knot range.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

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