Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southold, NY
May 12, 2024 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 9:04 AM Moonset 12:19 AM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 343 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 120903 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 503 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak high pressure then follows going into Friday before another low approaches for the start of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains on track. No changes were made with this update. The arrival of a line of rain remains on time and should pick up in areas west and south of the NYC metro soon.
A weak frontal system is approaching the area this morning with a midlevel shortwave and passing through late morning into early afternoon. Light showers have already developed along an occluded front in western portions of the CWA and will weaken before dissipating as they track east. Areas around the NYC metro and west and south of the NYC metro could see totals around or just below 0.25" with amounts quickly tapering east and north of the NYC metro.
Even though lift along the occluded front will be weak, we will still see increased moisture and positive vorticity advection associated with the midlevel shortwave. The east end and east CT may see no rain at all today.
The atmosphere will be mostly stable, so no thunderstorms are expected, however, a few isolated showers are possible in S CT and LI this afternoon, based on the latest CAMs. High pressure tries to build in the wake of the weakened exiting low this afternoon, so subsidence will really be working against the development of these afternoon showers, but may be aided by lingering midlevel moisture and energy associated with the exiting shortwave.
A fairly deep shortwave trough passing over today will limit highs to the mid-50s, which is about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to mostly dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the low/mid-60s to the east with onshore flow and western inland areas in the upper-60s to low-70s. A warm front will also be skirting the area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm front could lead to a few showers that dissipate as they track north to south. Confidence in the showers occurring, though, is low due to the riding aloft and surface high pressure working against them. PWATs around 1-1.2" will be in place, though.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough moving in. The center of the trough moves across either Wednesday night or Thursday. There are differences resolving this feature.
For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief ridging.
Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.
At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along this front.
Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model differences in their depiction of the low and its translational speed.
Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.
By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry conditions through much of Friday night.
The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out next weekend.
Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and Friday, and below normal next Saturday.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening frontal system moves in going into today. Weak high pressure returns later today and tonight.
Some light rain showers are expected with this frontal system with higher chances for NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF and lesser chances for KISP and KBDR as well as KGON. Highest chances for rain occur before 14Z this morning. Chances for additional rain showers still present late this morning into this afternoon but confidence lower on these so difficult to narrow down time and location of these in TAFs. Removed mention of showers for KBDR, KISP and KGON.
VFR is expected to transition to MVFR going into this morning.
Some MVFR may last into this afternoon, but otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight.
Wind speeds less than 10 kt expected during the TAF period. Wind direction overall southerly on average becoming more SW late in the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR timing could vary from TAF by a few hours. Some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR possible going into this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday night through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S winds gusts near 15-20kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers. S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and possible t-storms. SE wind gusts 15-20kt, becoming NE late day and at night.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions for the entirety of Sunday. Monday evening/early night may briefly reach 5 feet before dropping back down to 4 feet.
Long term marine, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable Wednesday night into Thursday, especially on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 503 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches this morning and passes south and east of the area later today. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday with low pressure approaching from the west. An area of low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday and then southeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Weak high pressure then follows going into Friday before another low approaches for the start of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains on track. No changes were made with this update. The arrival of a line of rain remains on time and should pick up in areas west and south of the NYC metro soon.
A weak frontal system is approaching the area this morning with a midlevel shortwave and passing through late morning into early afternoon. Light showers have already developed along an occluded front in western portions of the CWA and will weaken before dissipating as they track east. Areas around the NYC metro and west and south of the NYC metro could see totals around or just below 0.25" with amounts quickly tapering east and north of the NYC metro.
Even though lift along the occluded front will be weak, we will still see increased moisture and positive vorticity advection associated with the midlevel shortwave. The east end and east CT may see no rain at all today.
The atmosphere will be mostly stable, so no thunderstorms are expected, however, a few isolated showers are possible in S CT and LI this afternoon, based on the latest CAMs. High pressure tries to build in the wake of the weakened exiting low this afternoon, so subsidence will really be working against the development of these afternoon showers, but may be aided by lingering midlevel moisture and energy associated with the exiting shortwave.
A fairly deep shortwave trough passing over today will limit highs to the mid-50s, which is about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to mostly dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.
A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the low/mid-60s to the east with onshore flow and western inland areas in the upper-60s to low-70s. A warm front will also be skirting the area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm front could lead to a few showers that dissipate as they track north to south. Confidence in the showers occurring, though, is low due to the riding aloft and surface high pressure working against them. PWATs around 1-1.2" will be in place, though.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough moving in. The center of the trough moves across either Wednesday night or Thursday. There are differences resolving this feature.
For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief ridging.
Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.
At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along this front.
Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model differences in their depiction of the low and its translational speed.
Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.
By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry conditions through much of Friday night.
The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out next weekend.
Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and Friday, and below normal next Saturday.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening frontal system moves in going into today. Weak high pressure returns later today and tonight.
Some light rain showers are expected with this frontal system with higher chances for NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF and lesser chances for KISP and KBDR as well as KGON. Highest chances for rain occur before 14Z this morning. Chances for additional rain showers still present late this morning into this afternoon but confidence lower on these so difficult to narrow down time and location of these in TAFs. Removed mention of showers for KBDR, KISP and KGON.
VFR is expected to transition to MVFR going into this morning.
Some MVFR may last into this afternoon, but otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight.
Wind speeds less than 10 kt expected during the TAF period. Wind direction overall southerly on average becoming more SW late in the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR timing could vary from TAF by a few hours. Some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR possible going into this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday night through Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S winds gusts near 15-20kt coastal terminals.
Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers. S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and possible t-storms. SE wind gusts 15-20kt, becoming NE late day and at night.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions for the entirety of Sunday. Monday evening/early night may briefly reach 5 feet before dropping back down to 4 feet.
Long term marine, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable Wednesday night into Thursday, especially on the ocean.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 25 mi | 21 min | SSE 2.9G | 49°F | ||||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 26 mi | 51 min | 47°F | 50°F | 29.83 | |||
| NLHC3 | 28 mi | 51 min | 46°F | 62°F | 29.88 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 28 mi | 51 min | SSW 6G | 50°F | 56°F | 29.88 | ||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 39 mi | 51 min | SSW 2.9G | 49°F | 29.83 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 19 sm | 57 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 39°F | 37°F | 93% | 29.89 | |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 21 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 46°F | 46°F | 100% | 29.88 |
Horton Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT 3.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT 4.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT 3.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 4.2 |
| 3 am |
| 4.2 |
| 4 am |
| 3.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:17 AM EDT -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:28 PM EDT -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:48 PM EDT 1.39 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:17 AM EDT -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT 1.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:28 PM EDT -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:48 PM EDT 1.39 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -1.3 |
| 4 am |
| -1.6 |
| 5 am |
| -1.5 |
| 6 am |
| -1.2 |
| 7 am |
| -0.8 |
| 8 am |
| -0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Upton, NY,
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