Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenport, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:11PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 355 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 355 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds today, and passes east tonight. A frontal system approaches Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying coastal low tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will depart on Thursday with high pressure building in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenport, NY
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location: 41.1, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150742
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
342 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds today, and passes east tonight. A frontal
system approaches Wednesday, with a rapidly intensifying
coastal low tracking just southeast of the area Wednesday
night. Low pressure will depart on Thursday with high pressure
building in for the weekend. Another system will approach next
Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Upper shortwave to the north pivots east, with weak ridging
between approaching shortwave that will track across the upper
mid west today. Surface high pressure builds overhead by
afternoon.

Plenty of sunshine is expected today, along with seasonable
temperatures in the 60s. Northwest winds ahead of the high
lighten, and turn toward the south late in the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Weak shortwave ridging and associated subsidence tonight will
give way to approaching vigorous shortwave that will amplify as
it tracks across the great lakes ohio valley region. This trough
will begin to become negatively tilted Wednesday and Wednesday
night as it tracks overhead. Deep sfc low over the great lakes
ahead of this trough tracks east, but coastal low pressure
develops around the mid atlantic states, pivoting east and
likely passing just southeast of long island by late Wednesday
and Wednesday night, deepening as it does so. This will become
the main low.

A clear night tonight along with light winds will allow
temperatures to cool into the 30s 40s, except lower 50s around
nyc. Patchy frost development is expected, and included in the
forecast.

On Wednesday, the frontal system approaches, and deep lift ahead
of the trough will result in rain development from west to east
as the day progresses. With strong lift and plenty of moisture
advection, heavy rain is likely from the afternoon into the
evening. Drying occurs behind the system for western zones
Wednesday night, with rain lingering across eastern zones
through most of the night. Included thunder mention near the
rapidly developing low, along the coast due to elevated
instability.

Qpf of 1-3 inches is likely across the region. A few higher
amounts are possible.

Temperatures will rise into the 60s Wednesday as SE winds
increase ahead of the front low.

Ahead of the low, a period of E SE winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts
30-35 mph are likely along the coast Wednesday
afternoon evening. Then in the wake of low pressure, W NW winds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 to 45 mph are expected late
Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As low pressure wraps up and pulls away from the region on Thursday
strong cyclonic flow will lead to a cool, cloudy and windy day. W nw
winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph are likely during the
day on Thursday. The highest wind gusts will be along eastern long
island and far southeastern ct. Winds will be slow to diminish
Thursday evening, and may even continue into early Friday morning
across the twin forks. Temperatures will likely stay in the 50s
during the day and drop into the 40s at night.

High pressure then builds in towards the region on Friday. With
continued NW flow, it will still be a breezy day with below normal
temperatures despite a mostly sunny sky. High temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with lows dropping into the
upper 30s across the interior overnight. Other locations closer to
the coast will remain in the 40s.

As upper level ridging builds and high pressure slides to the south
into the weekend southwesterly flow will set up and temperatures
will moderate to more seasonable levels.

High pressure will then slide off the mid-atlantic coast on Sunday
as another system develops across the central plains. As this system
treks eastward, moisture will increase bringing the next chance of
rain to the region late Monday into Tuesday.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure builds in through the TAF period.VFR conditions are
expected for all terminals.

Initially, winds will be NW 5-10 kts and these will eventually
become more SW this afternoon at nearly the same wind speed with
developing sea breeze for coastal terminals. Winds become light
again tonight, 5 kts or less, and become generally more se.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight Vfr. Winds become more se.

Wednesday Rain developing. Ifr late afternoon evening, lingering
past midnight at kgon. SE winds g25kt. Llws also possible along the
coast late afternoon evening, mainly at kisp kgon. Isolated
thunderstorms possible for kisp and kgon late afternoon evening.

Thursday Possible MVFR with showers. NW winds g25-35kt.

Friday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt.

Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Northwest winds across the waters this morning lighten as high
pressure builds. Winds shift around to the south southeast late
today into tonight. SE winds increase to 20-25 kt as the day
progresses Wednesday, so SCA has been issued. Seas build during
this time.

By Wednesday night, deep low pressure passes across the ocean
waters, tracking east Wednesday night. SE winds will shift
around the W NW behind this deepening low. Gale force winds are
likely at that time, and cannot rule out a few strong force
gusts briefly right behind the low over the eastern waters. A
gale watch has been issued beginning Wed night.

Gale conditions will remain on all waters for Thursday before
falling back to SCA levels Thursday night. SCA wind gusts will
subside late Friday afternoon. Winds and seas will then remain below
sca criteria through the weekend.

Hydrology
A significant rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, with localized swaths of 2-4
inches possible. The bulk of the rainfall is expected in a 6-9
hr period late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is expected. There
is a low probability of flash flooding along a few of the fast
responding small rivers and streams in NE nj and the lower
hudson valley if the higher rainfall amounts are realized.

Additionally, localized flash flooding will also be an issue
for coastal roads if heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night
high tides.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures of generally 2 to 2 1 2 ft above astronomical
are needed for minor flooding during the times of high tide late
wed eve into Wed night. There continues to be quite a bit of
spread in the ensemble guidance, partly due to some differences
in the potential strength and position of low pressure wind
fields, and equally so due to timing of a wind shift from e-se
winds to NW as low pressure moves by. At this point, model
consensus would indicate potential for widespread minor coastal
flooding, with a low probability for localized moderate impacts
where wave action combines with elevated water levels.

If the heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night high tide,
more widespread flooding could be experienced than would
normally be expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... CB pw
near term... Pw
short term... Pw
long term... Cb
aviation... Jm
marine... CB pw
hydrology... CB pw
tides coastal flooding... Pw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi30 min N 14 G 15 51°F 1008.5 hPa40°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi60 min 56°F 62°F1019.5 hPa (+1.3)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi60 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 48°F 62°F1019.1 hPa (+1.2)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi60 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 50°F 61°F1019.5 hPa (+1.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi66 min N 2.9 G 4.1 48°F 63°F1019.6 hPa
44069 47 mi105 min N 7.8 G 9.7 54°F 59°F44°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi65 minNW 410.00 miFair46°F35°F66%1019.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1020.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi64 minN 610.00 miFair47°F37°F71%1019.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY24 mi66 minNNW 6 mi55°F41°F59%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SW76S8S4CalmS5S7SW4CalmN8
G14
N4NW9NW6NW7NW8NW6NW3
1 day agoNW6N9N16
G21
N13N10N54N55CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6
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NW7NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.20.61.41.61.30.80.1-0.8-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.1-0.60.10.91.31.20.90.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.