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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1240 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1240 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A weak wave of low pressure passes to the east overnight. Another low moving toward the great lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of long island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another low develops off the middle atlantic coast on Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 020554 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1254 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure passes to the east overnight. The area will then reside under weak high pressure between multiple frontal systems on Saturday. Another low moving toward the Great Lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of Long Island on Sunday. The low pressure lifts northeast of the area Sunday night. A trough of low pressure lingers on Monday with high pressure returning for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next frontal system may approach next Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Main area of rain has passes to the east with some pockets of light rain moving across portions of the interior. Overall, conditions will generally trend drier through daybreak. Patchy fog may be come locally dense in some spots.

Lows will generally be in the 40s with cloud cover, lgt winds, and llvl moisture in place.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Low level moisture becomes even more shallow on Saturday along with weaker lift due to a mid-level ridge nosing in. Because of this, a dry forecast is expected much of Saturday, with possible breaks in clouds in the afternoon, or just mid/high level clouds. Temperatures will still be above normal in the mid 50s.

Rain is expected for Saturday night after midnight into Sunday night as primary low pressure weakens to the west and a new center forms just south of Long Island Sunday. Rain will likely be widespread as there are strong signals for warm air advection allowing for more lift. Some 12Z models also have strong FGEN occurring later on Sunday because of the strong temperature gradient caused by cooler temperatures to our north. Models have ample moisture available, as well, with PWATs ranging between 1-1.4". The 90th percentile for PWATs is around 0.95" with the max moving average at 1.4". Despite this, not enough rain is expected to fall to lead to flooding concerns.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning in the extended. The global ensemble guidance is in good agreement on the pattern over the northeast being dominated by mean upper troughing through much of the upcoming week. The NBM was used for this forecast update.

The highlights for the long term are:

*Low pressure will continue moving northeast through New England Sunday night with rain ending from south to north through the night.

*Mainly dry conditions are then forecast Monday through the end of the week.

*Temperatures will start out above normal Monday before trending to seasonable or slightly below for the rest of the week.

Rain associated with low pressure will continue Sunday evening, but diminishes from south to north through the night. Dry conditions are expected to return by the morning rush hour on Monday. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through Monday with a lingering trough of low pressure of the area and broad cyclonic flow aloft. Highs on Monday range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast. Monday will also be breezy with potential of 20-25 mph gusts, especially closer to the coast.

High pressure briefly returns for Tuesday. The flow aloft within the upper trough begins to amplify Tuesday night as energy is progged to dive southeastward towards the coast. A large majority of the global models and ensembles keep low pressure development well south and east off the Middle Atlantic coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there are some ensembles members that have an inverted trough near the area or the low close enough to support a slight chance (20 percent) PoP. Based on the currently modeled pattern, the upper trough amplification occurs too far offshore for any impacts to the region. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the middle and upper 40s and then only upper 30s to low 40s on Wednesday.

The mean upper trough should push offshore later Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic runs diverge for the end of the week, but ensemble means indicate a near zonal flow aloft with some potential of a frontal system to approach on Friday. The forecast remains dry with surface high pressure largely in control. Highs ins the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday trend closer to normal on Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak wave low pressure passes to the east overnight. The area will then reside under weak high pressure between multiple frontal systems on Saturday. Another low tracks west of the area late tonight into Sunday, with a secondary low approaching from the south.

Some lingering -RA, DZ, and FG into this mrng. Some improvement to MVFR aft 12Z, and perhaps a period of VFR by 20Z, then MVFR and lower develops again aft 00Z Sun.

A light SW/VRB flow into this mrng, picking up slightly but still blw 10 kt today. Winds becoming lgt and vrb aft 00Z Sun.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for a period of LIFR in the 9-13Z time period. Otherwise, amendments possible for changing VIS/CIGS thru the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight: IFR likely.

Sunday: Rain expected. MVFR to IFR likely. W winds G15-20kt late at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt, becoming more NW at night.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions remain sub-SCA through Sunday with the exception of the eastern ocean reaching about 5 feet for around 6 hours late Saturday into early Sunday. Based on collaboration with BOX, no SCA has been issued at this time. However. if the forecast holds one may issue one with the next main forecast package.

SCA wind gusts are likely on the ocean Sunday night and then all waters on Monday. Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft during this time frame, likely not subsiding below 5 ft until early Tuesday morning. Lingering SCA wind gusts are possible on the ocean Monday night as well. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Tuesday through Wednesday with potential of SCA gusts Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected through Saturday.

0.5-1" is expected Saturday night into Sunday night. There are no hydrologic concerns given this is a relatively long duration event.

No hydrologic impacts are expected next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Haven Harbor entrance
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Fri -- 01:23 AM EST     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:35 PM EST     6.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonrise
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New Haven Harbor entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet

Stratford Shoal
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Fri -- 01:26 AM EST     6.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:38 PM EST     6.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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