Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 603 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 603 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weakening upper level trough will move across the area through tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 180820 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 420 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weakening upper level trough will approach from the west today and move across the area tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will continue to ridge south across New England and into the forecast area. However, a weakening upper level shortwave trough will approach from the west today and move across the area tonight. At the same time, a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to send Atlantic moisture into the area. Together, plan on lots of clouds, a light NE-E flow, and a low chance of showers. Patchy light rain/drizzle is also possibility across eastern LI and SE CT.

Highs are forecast to range from the lower 60s across far eastern LI and SE CT, to around 70 from NYC and points north and west. This is generally a few degrees below normal. However, with the cloud cover, expect lows tonight in the 50s, slightly above normal. Temperature guidance is generally in good agreement with a slight upward trend.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control during this time. Patchy light rain/drizzle may linger in the morning for far eastern areas, otherwise expect gradual improvement with decreasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. This could be short-lived though for eastern LI and SE CT, where low clouds may linger or redevelop during the nighttime hours. Any clouds work east on Monday along with the surface ridge axis. Aloft, a high amplitude ridge builds over top of the area.

Temperatures will be on the uptick Sunday into Monday due to a lot more sun. Sunday will be a touch warmer than Saturday, but jumping to 75 to 80 north and west of NYC on Monday, with much of the coast getting to around 70.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

*Key Points*

*Above normal temperatures through midweek.

*A cold front approaches late in the week, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Upper ridging noses into the region from the southern US early to mid week, becoming suppressed late in the week in response to a developing closed upper low drifting east across the northern plains/Great Lakes. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this low, which manifests in timing and progressiveness differences in the resultant cold front pushing towards and into the region late in the week.

Before then, good agreement in high pressure over the region this weekend, slowly sinking se of the region and developing a return deep SW flow into the region by midweek. The result will likely be dry conditions with temps moderating to 10 to 15 degrees above normal away from the coast Tue thru Thu. Based on setup, and 850mb temps in the mid teens, have leaned away from cooler deterministic NBM and towards the higher NBM 50th percentile (high in the mid 80s)
for NE NJ and areas to the NW. NBM 75th percentile has temps approaching 90 in this area, which is plausible with deep mixing and SW flow. Meanwhile, SW flow off mid 50 degree waters will likely keep temps in 70s along the coast, but still seasonable.

Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and cold front, but with aforementioned upper low and frontal timing differences, have capped potential at low chance, possibly as early as Wed eve, with better chance Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP marginal severe storm threat for areas west of the Hudson River Wed eve, and the entire area Thu aft/eve looks reasonable based on synoptic and thermodynamic setup.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place today through Sunday, with a weak warm front dissipating as it moves in from the west tonight.

MVFR cigs developing for KGON early this AM, and will likely develop across KISP and KBDR by mid morning. MVFR cigs will likely be stubborn for the eastern terminals through the day. Meanwhile NYC/NJ terminals will likely remain VFR this AM, with patchy MVFR cigs possible in the aft. Increasing likelihood for MVFR cigs spreading west into NYC/NJ terminals tonight.

Isolated shower threat for eastern terminals this AM, then for all terminals in the aft/eve.

NE/E winds 10 kt or less today into tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Slight prob for MVFR cigs during AM push, and low prob for PM push. MVFR conds likely for Sun AM push. Isolated shra possible for eve push.

NE winds of 7 to 10 kt, likely becoming E/SE in the afternoon with hybrid sea breeze development, except KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR. NE/E winds less than 10 kt.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in the AM, gradually improving to VFR.
Light E/NE winds.

Monday...MVFR AM, then VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA has been expand to include the ocean zones from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point. An easterly swell due to a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic looks to keep seas around 5 ft through much of the day. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the waters will likely lead to sub SCA levels through the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for marginal southerly SCA gusts in and around the entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.

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