Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Westport, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog lingering across the area with some possible localized dense fog, but this localized dense fog is more across the ocean waters. Otherwise, just some minor adjustments for POPs for showers with no changes to high temperatures for today.

High pressure that has been nosing into northeastern portions of the area weakens further today and shifts east. The stalled frontal boundary that is well to our south will start to drift north as a warm front. No big change in heights aloft, we remain on the eastern periphery of a broad trough. Several weak embedded disturbances will pass overhead today into tonight.

Plenty of cloud cover expected again today with rounds of scattered shower activity. Continues to be a difficult PoP forecast given weak lift. With the aforementioned disturbances aloft have more confidence in CAMs today and stuck close to this guidance.

Temperatures overachieved Monday even with showers and cloud cover so stuck with NBM today given the similar flow. This gives highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Also stuck with NBM for lows with thick cloud cover expected resulting in a lack of radiational cooling, 60s across the area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
An active short term period is expected. A warm front moves through early Wednesday morning with a cold front following Thursday evening/night. The train of embedded upper level disturbances also continues. This pattern will result in several rounds of showers with potential for thunderstorms as well.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning, mainly for NYC and north and west: Early Wednesday morning a warm front will push through and continue the surge of warm moist air into our area.
Pwats increase to over 2 inches, which is near the daily record for the OKX upper air sounding. With the passing of the warm front the some CAMS show a shower/thunderstorm activity. Exact coverage is difficult to know at this point, but any shower or thunderstorm that does develop should be able to produce heavy downpours. CAPE is elevated but has a tall and skinny shape. It is worth noting that the GFS has stronger mid-level capping and is likely resulting in the lack of modeled QPF.

Heavy showers and potential for strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly for areas west of eastern LI and eastern CT: With the area warm sectored we should be able to destabilize to about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE or more in northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. A surface trough and shortwave aloft should be able to trigger some afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
Decent instability but once again the profile is tall and skinny and shear is not too strong. This limits the severe threat and may be more of a heavy downpour threat, but some stronger cells could produce sub-severe wind gusts.

Potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday evening: Thursday continues to be highlighted as a potential severe thunderstorm day by the CSU-MLP with a 15-30% chance of damaging wind gusts. The SPC has also outlined the area in a slight risk. The area is able to destabilize again ahead of an approaching cold front with guidance consensus around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The triggers for this event will be more focused and stronger than Wednesday given the falling heights aloft and cold front. The reason for severe potential comes from a more favorable CAPE profile and stronger shear than Wednesday.

Aside from the shower and thunderstorm activity in the short term, the warming temperature trend will continue with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday. Did end up with slightly lower heat indices because Tds were lowered given the expected mixing and NBM high bias. Still have Tds in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key point:

* Potential for high heat and humidity Sunday into early next week.

Global models are in good agreement and forecast largely followed NBM during this period.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage Thursday, high temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday, and dew points will be much lower. Temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees above normal.
With high pressure centered off the southeast coast Friday into the beginning of next week, heat and humidity will be building.
Maintained slight chance probabilities across the region for Saturday night with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to move over the building ridge, and with a weak shortwave and a warm frontal passage to the northwest and north. The ridge and heights build Sunday into Monday, and the ridge remains into Tuesday. With NBM deterministic high temperatures Saturday into next week near the 25th percentile and the potential for higher temperatures, have blended in a small percentage of the 75th percentile, resulting in highs a couple of degrees above the NBM deterministic. The heat and humidity increase Sunday into Tuesday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. There is the potential for reaching heat advisory criteria Sunday and Monday across northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, New York City, much of southern Connecticut and into northern Nassau and northwestern Suffolk counties. And a few places across northeastern New Jersey into the lower Hudson Valley may be near warning levels, however, this will depend on dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which may mix out during the afternoon.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure off the New England coast will gradually weaken and shift east today as a stationary front remains well to the south. The front will begin lifting north as a warm front late tonight, and pass north early Wednesday morning.

IFR/LIFR early this morning becomes widespread IFR through the day. There may be brief local improvement to MVFR this afternoon. Conditions lower back to IFR/LIFR this evening, with VLIFR possible late tonight as the warm front approaches.

Periods of light rain and drizzle remain possible into tonight, with the best chances late tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning, but did not mention in TAF.

Winds become ESE-SE less than 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for flight categories deviating from forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: Chance of IFR early, then becoming MVFR in the afternoon. Brief VFR possible. Showers/tstms likely with MVFR.

Thursday: Showers/tstms with IFR possible in the afternoon/evening, some with locally strong winds from the NYC metros north/west.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Have a marine weather statement for the rest of this morning for patchy dense fog on the ocean waters. Areas of fog this morning across the ocean waters becomes more patchy this afternoon.
Non-ocean waters also have fog but is patchy in coverage for this morning.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday night. A S/SW flow then increases and some 25 kt gusts are possible by Thursday afternoon. Especially nearshore gusts. Seas also likely increase to 4-5 ft across the ocean waters.

With a strong SW to W flow in the wake of a cold front ocean seas will be near 5 feet Friday into Friday evening. Winds gradually diminish late Friday into Friday evening as high pressure builds toward the waters, and ocean seas fall below 5 feet by late Friday night. Winds and seas then remain below SCA levels Saturday into Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
Locally heavy downpours are possible with any showers/thunderstorms Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

No hydrologic impacts expected thereafter through the beginning of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rip current risk remains moderate today and Wednesday with a continued E/SE 3ft 7s wave component and parallel/onshore flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.