Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Norwalk, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 20, 2020 9:16 PM EST (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 3:40PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 626 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 626 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the central states will be in control through Friday. The high pressure settles south of the area Friday night into much of the weekend and then offshore Sunday night. Low pressure and its associated frontal system approach Monday into Monday night and move across the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwalk city, CT
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location: 41.1, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 202351 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 651 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the Central States will be in control through Friday. The high pressure settles south of the area Friday night into much of the weekend and then offshore Sunday night. A frontal system approaches early next week with the passage of a weak low near the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system approaches Wednesday and moves near the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Some slight adjustments were made to the forecast grids to increase clouds this evening with otherwise just a few degrees adjustments to near term temperatures and dewpoints to better match observed trends. The forecast overall is on track.

A middle and upper level trough axis approaches this evening and moves across the Tri-State overnight. The approaching trough axis will push the strong upper level jet streak offshore tonight. This will effectively take the middle and upper level moisture with it and begin clearing skies from north to south overnight. A weak surface trough associated with the upper trough may develop some stratocu as it passes. Subcloud layer looks too dry to support any flurries, so have left out of the forecast.

A reinforcing shot of cold air moves in tonight once the trough axis swings across. Cold and dry advection take place overnight under a northerly flow, which may increase winds a bit especially near the coast. A few gusts to 25 mph cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will fall well into the teens for most locations, with the NYC Metro falling to around 20 degrees. Wind chills will be in the single digits for most locations early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A surface and upper ridge axis build over the region on Friday. The atmosphere is dry from the surface to the upper levels with strong subsidence from the ridging. Dry and chilly conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures ranging from around 30 degrees inland to the middle 30s near the coast, 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Clear skies continue Friday night with the ridge axis shifting offshore and the core of the surface high building to our south. Winds will shift to a W-SW direction around the high pressure, beginning the process of moderating temperatures. Have gone on the warmer side of guidance with lows Friday night due to the developing southwest flow. Outlying locations stand the best chance at radiational cooling and temperatures.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Looking at 250mb wind speed, the local region for the weekend will be in between northern and southern branches of the upper level jet. The jet bends more early next week with more SW meridional component flow developing and traversing the local area.

Left front quad of upper level jet moves in early Tuesday and whole upper level jet amplifies and strengthens Tuesday night into Wednesday with the local region again being in left front quad of a strong jet streak. The jet streak will still be over the area Wednesday night into early Thursday and then the jet streak shifts east of the region for the remainder of Thursday.

Mid level pattern exhibits quasi-zonal flow for the weekend with more amplified increasing meridional flow for much of next week.

At the surface, high pressure will be anchored in the Southeast US for Saturday through Sunday and then will move eastward off the Southeast into the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night. Dry weather is expected through the weekend.

A more unsettled weather pattern develops next week because of the more active jet and its close proximity to the region. One low pressure system will be making its way towards the region Monday into Monday night. The parent low of the system tracks well west and weakens with another small low that will be moving nearby Tuesday into Tuesday night. There will be some shortwave positive vorticity advection in the mid levels Tuesday. Synoptic pattern keeps the region warmer so this upcoming precipitation event will be in the form of rain. The rain Tuesday into Tuesday night will be mainly light to moderate.

For Wednesday, the region gets a brief lull in rain with the region being in between low pressure systems. This next one will be moving in from the south and west Wednesday night into Thursday and could potentially be a stronger system but with a track of the low across western parts of the region, mainly rain is expected once again with a chance of a wintry mix across the interior. A lot of uncertainty with this second system as it is about a week ahead in time so models may very well fluctuate from run to run with its depiction of the strength, position and track of the parent low associated with the system.

Temperatures overall through much of the long term are forecast to be several degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure remains across the terminals through the forecast period with VFR conditions.

Mid and high level clouds this evening will clear the area after 04z. SKC the remaining part of the TAF period.

Winds generally NW-N around 10 kts tonight. Gusts develop late tonight up to 20 kt, and continue into early Friday morning. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. During Friday the winds back W and SW, and remain under 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night through Sunday night. VFR. Monday. VFR during the day. A chance of rain with MVFR or lower Monday night. Tuesday. Rain likely with MVFR or lower.

MARINE. An increasing pressure gradient on the waters will increase winds through the night. The winds on the ocean waters should come close to 25 kt in gusts. The SCA remains in effect from 05z to 17z Friday. However, the strongest winds look to occur early Friday morning and the advisory may be cancelled sooner than 17z. Air temperatures dropping into the low 20s early Friday morning combined with the stronger winds on the ocean bring a chance for light freezing spray. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are forecast through Friday night.

Outside of some marginal SCA gusts on Saturday across the ocean, sub-SCA conditions are expected for the weekend through Tuesday across the waters. SCA seas are possible on the ocean Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected through Monday.

Widespread rainfall is forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night with potential for around 1 inch but confidence is low on exact amounts. With rain expected to be spread out over a long period of time, no hydrologic issues are expected. Too much uncertainty to assess any potential issues with the second system next week yet.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JM/DS NEAR TERM . JM/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . IRD MARINE . JM/DS HYDROLOGY . JM/DS EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 13 mi76 min NW 14 G 18 33°F 1 ft12°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi46 min NNW 8 G 11 29°F 39°F1029.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi31 min NW 16 G 21 32°F 32°F13°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 27 mi46 min NNE 16 G 19 32°F 41°F1030.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi46 min NNE 11 G 16 29°F 39°F1029.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi46 min 32°F 41°F1030.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi46 min NNW 16 G 20 32°F 1030.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi24 minN 910.00 miA Few Clouds29°F9°F43%1030.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi80 minNW 14 G 1810.00 miFair29°F6°F38%1030.2 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi23 minN 810.00 miFair24°F8°F50%1031.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EST     7.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:38 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     6.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.420.80.30.81.93.65.36.77.3764.52.71.10.1-0.10.72.13.85.46.46.65.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stamford, Connecticut
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Stamford
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM EST     7.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:40 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:39 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EST     6.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.21.70.60.20.72.145.76.97.47.264.22.40.8-0.2-0.30.62.34.15.66.56.76

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.