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Marine Weather and Tides Southport, CT Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:26AM

Sunset 5:44PM

Sunday February 28, 2021 10:11 PM EST (03:11 UTC)

Moonrise 8:25PM

Moonset 8:32AM

Illumination 94%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, CT

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 282358 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 658 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure develops along a warm front and moves nearby tonight, followed by a cold front during Monday morning. A second cold front moves through by Monday evening. High pressure then builds in for Tuesday and remains in control through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. The forecast is mostly on track with only slight adjustments made to some of the hourly forecast elements.

For tonight, light rain should become more intermittent as forecast soundings from various guidance shows some layers drying out a little with less overall saturation. However, the exact timing of this is not all that consistent among NWP. After low pressure along a warm front pushes northeast a lull in the light rain should take place. Afterwards, light rain should be more consistent closer to Monday morning as a cold front bears down from the west and begins to push through closer to daybreak. The winds will shift into Monday morning to more of a west direction. This will gradually bleed in drier air from the west. Much of the guidance suggests some light rain and showers lagging the cold frontal passage by a few hours. So kept POPs through much of the morning on Monday and did not get rid of POPs for eastern sections until Monday afternoon.

The bigger story of the period should be increasing winds for Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A second cold front will bear down on the region for late day Monday. It will be this front that the real air mass change take place with a turn to much colder weather. An increasing pressure gradient with the aforementioned low pressure system which pushes up into Nova Scotia by Monday evening, and strong Canadian high pressure building over the Upper Midwest and Western lakes will result in strong, gusty winds developing late in the day on Monday and early Monday evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. After looking at BUFKIT soundings from various camps, thought it prudent to issue a Wind Advisory for the entire area. The strongest wind gusts should take place for the evening hours and just after midnight with a combination of the strongest CAA and steepening lapse rates. Wind gusts approaching 50 mph are a good possibility, and with the moist soil from recent rainfall and snow melt cannot rule out some impacts in the area of uprooted trees from weakened root systems and a few downed tree limbs.

The cold air will then be the story heading late in the night and into Tuesday morning as 1000-500 mb thicknesses approach 510-515 dm. Therefore wind chills approaching zero across much of the area is expected, with a few sub zero windchills across northern sections into early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday should be breezy, but the winds should settle down overall as cold air advection shuts down and high pressure begins to settle over the area. Temperatures should return to around 10 degrees below normal for Monday night and Tuesday, with the wind making it feel even colder.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. An extended period of dry weather is expected through the long term. Longwave ridge flattens over the region Tuesday night with the surface ridge axis shifting through the forecast area. With the center of the high offshore to our south, winds become more WSW, ending cold air advection. Low temperatures therefore end up about 5- 10 degrees warmer than on Monday night. Weak high pressure will be in place during Wednesday as low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast and heads east out to sea. Remaining dry here with highs a few degrees above normal.

A polar vortex lobe drops south from eastern Canada, sending a cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. The passage is likely dry, but high temperatures will return back to normal, possibly even a degree or two lower than normal. Sided closer to the NBM median temps over the warmer deterministic numbers as it seems that models only recently have picked up on the magnitude cold with this air mass, and a greater number of ensemble members are leaning toward the colder numbers. Didn't want to go too cold as there's uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front. It nevertheless appears that at stronger push of cold air advection occurs Thursday night into Friday with breezy conditions and highs only in the 30s for Friday.

Heights rise on Saturday, but still with a cyclonic flow aloft. High temperatures modify, but probably still end up short of seasonal norms. Models then maintain the trend of keeping low pressure well- offshore Saturday night through Sunday night, keeping us dry. Temperatures still however will be a little below normal as another lobe of vorticity drops south from eastern Canada.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A frontal system approaches tonight, with multiple waves traveling along this front through the TAF period.

It has been a challenging forecast as low-level ridging across the area today has kept ceilings/vsbys from dropping as quickly as forecast. Overall, still looking at widespread LIFR conditions developing overnight with periods of light rain/drizzle/fog. Improvement looks to be slow in the morning, with VFR conditions developing in the early afternoon along with gusty WNW winds.

E-SE winds this evening will gradually back tonight before becoming light and variable during the early morning hours as low pressure comes across the area. Winds then become westerly and ramp up at in the early afternoon with G20-25kt. Higher gusts will then arrive in the later afternoon/evening with the potential for G40kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments likely with the timing of flight category changes this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday Night. VFR. NW wind G35-40kt possible first half of the night, then gradually weakening. Tuesday. VFR. NW wind G20-25kt possible. Wednesday-Friday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Marginal SCA seas will persist through tonight for the eastern 2/3rds of the ocean for through tonight and into Monday, while SCA conditions should remain just below criteria with respect to seas for the western 1/3rd of the ocean through Tuesday morning.

A cold front will approach and push through the coastal waters towards late Monday afternoon into evening. Conditions will quickly ramp up to Gale for all waters Monday evening. Gales should continue at least into Tuesday morning for the western near shore waters, and possibly into a portion of Tuesday afternoon for the remaining waters.

High pressure builds to the south Tuesday night with still enough of a pressure gradient over the local waters for SCA conds on the ocean and perhaps some of the other waters during the evening. Winds drop off a little more overnight, and a lingering swell may keep seas up to advisory levels through the night and Wednesday. Winds then veer from W to NNW Wednesday night, and this should help seas subside. Even with seas likely dropping below 5 ft during this period into Thursday, there's a chance that a burst of cold air advection with a cold front could produce gusts up to 25 kt on all waters on Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. Rain totals through midday Monday are forecast to be on either side of a half inch on average across the area. These amounts should not cause any hydrologic problems across the area and no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the long term period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. With a recent full moon resulting in water levels higher astronomically, and after some easterly winds into tonight a bit of extra surge is expected. The elevated water levels could reach the minor coastal flood benchmarks for some spots in coastal Fairfield County, CT for tonight's high tide, and for the South Shore Bays of Queens and Nassau counties for later Monday morning. Therefore these have been covered for now with coastal flood statements.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ330- 340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ335- 338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.



SYNOPSIS . JC/JE NEAR TERM . JE SHORT TERM . JE LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DW MARINE . JC/JE HYDROLOGY . JC/JE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . //

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	7 mi	54 min	E 7 G 8.9	38°F	38°F		1016.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	23 mi	54 min	ESE 2.9 G 8	39°F	38°F		1018.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	33 mi	54 min	E 1.9 G 4.1	41°F			1016.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY	48 mi	54 min		42°F	38°F		1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT	9 mi	80 min	E 9	3.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	37°F	93%	1016.8 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT	19 mi	79 min	Var 4	3.00 mi	Fog/Mist	39°F	35°F	86%	1016.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY	23 mi	76 min	ESE 7	0.25 mi	Light Rain Fog	38°F	37°F	97%	1016.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT	24 mi	79 min	E 9	2.00 mi	Fog/Mist	41°F	38°F	89%	1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut

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Tide / Current Tables for Bridgeport, Connecticut

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Weather Map

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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