Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilton Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:27PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:47 AM EST (10:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 11:57AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain with freezing rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilton Center, CT
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location: 41.16, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161016 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 516 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. High pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually slide east today as a mid level trough approaches from the west. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower through the morning as low pressure and its associated warm front approaches.

The first challenge will be how much precip actually is able to make it into the area this afternoon with lingering dry air and surface ridging across the northeast. Most high resolution models are indicating only some light precip initially until the high pushes further offshore. Temperatures will be cold enough that any precipitation that falls today will be in the form of flurries or light snow showers.

Highs today will be in the 30s area wide.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will continue pushing offshore by this evening allowing for a surge in moisture. With better lift near the region from the approaching warm front, precip is projected to become more widespread. Precipitation should start off as snow everywhere, before quickly transitioning to a rain/snow mix then to all rain across NYC, Long Island and northeast NJ. The interior is expected to remain a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The biggest challenge will be the ptype as warm air begins to move in aloft creating a warm nose. If the warm nose is large and/or the sub- freezing air near the surface is very shallow, we could end up with more freezing rain than sleet. It is likely that precip type will vary at times overnight as moderate or heavy precipitation will cool the column sufficiently changing the precip to sleet or snow at times.

With the uncertainty that remains in precip type, no changes to the winter weather advisories were made. This was mainly due to the low confidence in ice accumulation forecasts along the coast. Either way, it looks like the Tuesday morning commute will be impacted by a wintry mix which may warrant an advisory with future updates based on impacts.

Snowfall totals across the interior will range between 1-2 inches with ice accumulations of up to 1 tenth of an inch. Across northeast NJ, NYC Metro and Long Island less than an inch is expected, however there is a signal that a quick burst of snow could develop shortly after midnight when there is greatest lift enhanced by a low level jet. Rainfall totals will range from 0.5-1.00" where temperatures are expected to stay warmer.

Precipitation ends pretty quickly as the low pulls away Tuesday evening.

Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A wave of low pressure will continue to track quickly to the east Tuesday evening with any remaining light rain and wintry precipitation ending in the early evening. There remain some timing differences in the guidance with the GFS and NAM quicker while the ECMWF keeps some precipitation behind the low longer. With the progressive flow have leaned toward the quicker solutions.

Weak surface ridging builds Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, with the quick flow, a rather strong vort is expected to move into the northeast associated with a polar front and closed upper low. Much of the energy will pass to the north however light snow or flurries will be possible across the area Wednesday afternoon into the evening with the polar front. With little moisture could be more flurries, so will have only slight chance probabilities. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday night through Thursday night as core of the polar air tracks through upstate New York and southern New England.

Ridging builds and remains through Friday, as temperatures modify. Another system passes to the north Saturday and Saturday night. With little moisture will again be many snow and rain showers, or flurries and sprinkles.

Weak ridging returns, Sunday into the beginning of next week, with near zonal flow, and temperatures returning to near normal levels.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure over the area will drift offshore today. Low pressure will approach later today into tonight.

W-NW winds continue to diminish into early this morning, then as the high passes east winds should become light generally under 5 kt out of the SW-S in the afternoon, then NE-E by this evening.

Clouds lower and thicken into Monday. MVFR conds likely to develop mainly after 23Z, but could develop sooner for a brief while during this afternoon, especially across southwestern terminals (KEWR,KTEB,KJFK,KLGA). For the NYC metro and coastal terminals during tonight, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain, KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain.

Timing of precip and MVFR conds uncertain late today into this evening. Also some uncertainty with the timing of the start of IFR conds for later Monday night.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late Monday night. IFR or lower likely. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals rain, for KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N winds G20kt in the afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday and Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Small Craft seas will remain on the far eastern ocean through 11AM. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through Monday night.

SCA seas return on the ocean Tuesday in advance of the next system with elevated seas and wind gusts increasing to 30 kt. Winds diminish Wednesday. The remainder of the forecast waters will remain below SCA levels.

As a polar cold front moves through the waters Wednesday night, with a wave of low pressure passing to the north. Strong and gusty winds develop with gale gusts likely on the ocean waters, and small craft advisory gusts across the remainder of the forecast waters Wednesday night and Thursday. SCA conditions are then expected on the ocean waters Thursday night as winds and seas diminish.

Sub advisory levels winds and seas are expected across all the waters Friday and Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. A widespread precipitation event today through Tuesday will a liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.00 inches. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

No significant precipitation is expected Tuesday night through the weekend.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-103. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . CB/19 NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . 19 AVIATION . JE MARINE . CB/19 HYDROLOGY . CB/19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 32°F 45°F1022.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 16 mi62 min W 12 G 16 35°F 20°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 25 mi47 min WNW 12 G 16 34°F 32°F19°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi53 min W 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 43°F1022.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi53 min N 12 G 14 34°F 43°F1024.4 hPa
44069 36 mi47 min W 9.7 G 12 35°F 40°F21°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi53 min 34°F 42°F1024 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi53 min NNW 7 G 12 35°F 1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi54 minW 410.00 miFair29°F12°F51%1023 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi55 minW 410.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1023.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi1.9 hrsW 710.00 miFair31°F14°F49%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDXR

Wind History from DXR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE43E33NE3CalmNE4NE4E4CalmS10S12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4NE5CalmNE3NE4CalmE4E6CalmCalmNE3E4E5E3E6NE7E8E5E7

Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:52 AM EST     7.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM EST     7.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.66.77.16.55.23.51.90.80.40.72.13.95.77.17.77.36.14.32.510-0.20.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM EST     7.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:50 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:58 PM EST     7.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:26 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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677.26.44.93.21.70.70.412.54.46.27.47.87.35.942.10.7-0.1-0.112.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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