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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brunswick, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 101206 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 706 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moving through the eastern Great Lakes region today will reach the East Coast by this evening. A reinforcing arctic cold front will cross the region on Wednesday. High pressure enters from the west on Wednesday night and persists over the eastern United States through Thursday night. Low pressure enters from the southeast on Friday and will move along the East Coast on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main focus of the morning update is to further refine snow chances and amounts and accumulations for later today. Healthy bands of lake effect snow have developed over Lake Michigan and are pushing east across Lower Michigan with snow as far east as Lansing and Ann Arbor. Expecting this snow to reach the Lake Erie basin and prime the area for lake effect snow later this afternoon. With increasing confidence in lake effect snow, have bumped up PoPs in portions of NE OH and NW PA and increased snow amounts with the most notable change being the introduction of 1 to 3 inches in Geauga County this afternoon and early evening.

Previous Discussion . A cold front moving through the forecast area this morning will move off to the east, clearing much of the synoptic rainfall that impacted the area on Monday. Behind this front, cold air entering the region will be the main focus for lake effect snow development over the region, which can already be seen over western Lower Michigan. Fairly good synoptic moisture remains over the area and westerly flow over Lake Erie will allow for snow to develop and push into the snow belt region of NE OH and NW PA. The main concern with this snowfall is how quickly the boundary layer deepens today behind the cold front. Forecast soundings over the region show that the inversion is slow to rise and the boundary layer and deeper moisture may not enter the better snow growth zone until much later this afternoon. With that, snowfall rates will be diminished and the forecast reflects scattered to likely snow showers with minor accumulations across the area. The highest accumulations are expected in NW PA of 1 to 2 inches where more convective and higher ratio snow is expected later towards evening. High temperatures will be achieved early today with the cold frontal passage. Several locations saw midnight high temperatures this morning in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will fall through the day into the 30s.

By tonight, lake effect snow should become more organized, but dry air entering from the west will begin shrinking the impacted areas towards just NW PA, where another 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. As this dry air enters, winds will shift around more towards the southwest and lake effect snow will be more favored offshore of OH and PA and into western NY. Have PoPs diminishing quickly after midnight and remaining low into Wednesday. Elsewhere, this dry air will allow for clearing conditions and radiational cooling. This, along with a colder air mass in place, will allow for temperatures to fall into the 20s and likely upper teens in several locations inland.

A reinforcing arctic cold front will enter the region on Wednesday. This feature will bring colder air aloft and veer winds over the region to the west. This will further enhance ongoing lake effect snow over eastern Lake Erie and cause a flow more favorable for snow to re-enter into the PA and OH Snow Belt region. The best timing for snow to return will be in the 4 PM to 10 PM time frame on Wednesday. This will be the time period when there is good saturation and lift within the DGZ, and snowfall rates could approach an inch per hour in NW PA. At least 1 to 3 inches of snow should be expected in this area with minor accumulations elsewhere in the snow belt. Outside of the snow belt, dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds is expected. Temperatures will be well below normal in the 20s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Band of snow showers quickly shifts inland and diminishes on Wednesday night as moisture strips away down to 850mb. Will expect to hold onto clouds downwind of Lake Erie and possibly some flurries as long as we maintain a northwest flow off the Lake. Surface high pressure will be located overhead on Wednesday night before shifting into Pennsylvania on Thursday morning. With light winds and clear skies across much of the area, lowered minimum temperatures several degrees with inland sites dipping into the lower teens while lakeshore areas remain closer to 20. Southerly winds will develop on the back side of the surface high on Thursday with temperatures warming 6-10 degrees from Wednesday's highs.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As a weak shortwave passes to the north of the Great Lakes on Friday, attention turns towards a developing low off the East Coast and an approaching short wave from the west on Friday night through Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that a coastal low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday morning, and could impact Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with rain and/or snow. A rain/snow mix could be possible Saturday morning, turning to all rain by Saturday afternoon as warmer air from the gulf pushes northwards into the area. At the same time, a short wave will be pushing east into the Ohio Valley from the northern Plains Saturday afternoon, ushering in colder air across the area. There are model differences on the strength of the cold air, but generally expecting a rain/snow mix Sunday, transitioning to snow Sunday night. Another low pressure system will develop across the southern Plains by Monday shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. We will continue to monitor the track of this system for any potential impacts early next week.

It will remain relatively cloudy throughout the period, with only a few breaks in cloud cover possible between systems. The warmest day looks to be Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s before colder temperatures arrive Sunday into Monday. Have opted to go with slightly cooler high temperatures than guidance on Sunday in the mid to upper 30s. Given strong cold air advection with precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures will struggle to rise during the day.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. A cold front bisects the airspace this morning and will continue east across the area. Strong westerly winds have overtaken the region with the front, providing wind gusts up to 30 kts. MVFR ceilings have overspread the region with the front, flip- flopping around the 2000 ft threshold. Expect ceilings to remain in place through at least this afternoon before dry air enters from the west, allowing for ceilings to lift then scatter. The other main concern for the TAF period will be lake effect snow showers over NE OH and NW PA. Have a vicinity shower mention at KCLE, but have hit the snow harder at KERI with a wide window of MVFR conditions and a window of IFR snow when the best chances will be this afternoon.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers and low ceilings, especially in the NE OH and NW Snow Belt. Non-VFR possible Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters today, and continues through Wednesday night from Cleveland eastward. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected today, backing to southwest and increasing to 20-35 knots on Wednesday. A Gale Watch has been issued for the open waters off of Pennsylvania and New York with the potential for southwest gales to develop for a few hours during the midday period. Winds will tend to decrease into Wednesday night as they shift onshore with the passage of another cold front. Strong high pressure will build overhead Wednesday night and shifting east on Thursday resulting in improving conditions. Southwesterly winds will develop heading into next weekend, becoming westerly with the passage of a cold front Saturday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ146>149. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LEZ169. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>145.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . Kahn AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . KEC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	25 mi	53 min	W 24 G 29	36°F	42°F		1011 hPa	29°F
LORO1	31 mi	71 min	W 28 G 31	35°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	42 mi	116 min	SW 5.1	34°F			1010 hPa	27°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	45 mi	41 min	W 12 G 21	32°F			1010.2 hPa (+3.8)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	47 mi	53 min	W 29 G 34	37°F	41°F		1010 hPa	31°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Akron, Akron Fulton International Airport, OH	18 mi	47 min	W 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	28°F	70%	1010.9 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH	18 mi	50 min	WSW 14	10.00 mi	Overcast	35°F	27°F	72%	1012.2 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	23 mi	48 min	WSW 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	28°F	73%	1011.1 hPa
Wooster, Wayne County Airport, OH	23 mi	1.8 hrs	WNW 16 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	28°F	85%	1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLE

Wind History from CLE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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