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LEZ146 Expires:202405162015;;309942 Fzus51 Kcle 161328 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 928 am edt Thu may 16 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>147-162015- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 928 am edt Thu may 16 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 170145 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 945 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure departs to the east this evening before another low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and Saturday.
Brief high pressure builds across the area Saturday night through Monday before another low pressure system impacts the region midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Only change is updates to the POPs as low pressure moves into the region overnight with higher values over the next 12 hours.
Minor overnight temperature changes.

Previous Discussion...
An upper-level trough moves across the northern Great Lakes while a separate upper-level trough over the southern Plains moves eastward south of our forecast area. Forcing from both of these troughs will result in showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west late tonight through Friday morning. This should be a sizable swath of soaking rain, so have increased PoPs to 60-70%. Showers linger but become more scattered during the day on Friday. PoPs gradually decrease from the north Friday evening/night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A very weak closed/cut-off low aloft and associated weak surface reflection will be moving across the northern Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday evening. Sufficient low-level moisture will remain on Saturday for weak to modest, uncapped instability to develop with daytime heating. There will be some forcing from the weak closed low, though ultimately feel shower / storm development will mainly be driven by subtle low-level convergence zones, such as the lake breeze and weak hilltop convergence. This all adds up to most of the area being highlighted for a 30-50% "chance" of showers / storms Saturday afternoon and early evening, with greatest potential across the hillier terrain from the Mid Ohio region points east-northeast across interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with relatively lower chances towards Toledo and especially over the lake. There is not expected to be enough shear or instability for severe weather on Saturday, though one or two stronger pulse storms may become capable of small hail or gusty winds. Slow cell motions could lead to locally heavy downpours but with a low flood concern overall.

Outside of the isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday partly sunny skies are expected. Shower and thunder chances will exit to the southeast Saturday night, with a dry Sunday and Sunday night expected as a shortwave ridge aloft and weak high pressure at the surface slide through the region, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies for Sunday. Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s, with around 80 possible along I-75 if clouds / rain aren't more widespread than expected. Lows will generally dip into the 50s Saturday night, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern OH and northwestern PA to near 60 along/west of I-71.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge will build over the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that will enter and cross through the region on Wednesday. This will lead to a very warm first half of next week, with 80s expected to be common for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be knocked back into the 70s for highs on Thursday behind the front.

Confidence is increasing that much of the Monday and Monday night periods will remain dry, as ridging aloft will act to cap the region with forcing still well off to the west. It is possible that upstream convection spreads into Northwest Ohio later Monday night, though it will be moving into a dry and stable airmass and outrunning any forcing closer to the front to the west. Overall POPs have trended down over the last couple of cycles from Monday and Monday night and are rather minimal now. The front and main upper trough will still be to our west on Tuesday, though a more moist and unstable airmass combined with the main upper ridge axis beginning to shift east may yield greater potential for showers and thunder Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially if organized activity can develop upstream and move in. Confidence in any rain potential Tuesday and Tuesday evening is still low and it is possible we remain mainly dry. Confidence increases that at least scattered showers / storms will spread in from the west late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front and upper trough finally move into and across the region. Thursday should trend mainly dry. Some more organized thunderstorms could be possible along or ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the timing of the front may prove pivotal to any severe weather potential locally.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR in the first few hours of the TAF. An area of low pressure brings showers with embedded thunder in from the west after 06Z Friday for the western terminals for the area, spreading eastward after that. Bring ceilings primarily to MVFR and also MVFR for visibilities, although some outliers to IFR possible briefly further east at CAK. Thunder should be limited, however the best chances as of right now are FDY to MFD where instability is greater. Could see more TSRA/CB in the next issuance of TAFs at 06Z Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.

MARINE
Winds will remain generally easterly tonight before shifting south- southeast on Friday as a warm front lifts north of Lake Erie. Winds will turn east-northeast Saturday and Saturday night as weak low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley, with winds remaining generally east-northeast through Sunday. Winds will turn more southerly Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front taking shape well to our west, with this front expected to cross the lake on Wednesday. Winds and waves will remain mild and below headline criteria through early next week. Winds and waves may become a bit more elevated as the front moves through on Wednesday, though confidence is low that far out. A few thunderstorms are possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning. There will be a limited risk of storms over the lake Friday afternoon and evening and again Saturday afternoon (greater risk inland). Higher potential for thunderstorms over the lake may arrive along or just ahead of the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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