Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croton-on-Hudson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday July 2, 2020 5:30 PM EDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 3:11AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 337 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers and tstms this evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 337 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. An upper level low will continue to gradually pull away from the area tonight. A cold front will pass through on Friday, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croton-on-Hudson, NY
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location: 41.2, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 021950 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 350 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weakening upper level low near Nantucket will gradually pull away from the area tonight. A back door cold frontal passage occurs on Friday, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. About 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE have developed this aftn according to LAPS. There is some CIN near the immediate coasts, particularly ern CT and LI. There has been some initiation across wrn areas as a weak h7 wave approaches. There may also be some triggering over elevation in the nly component flow regime. All of the models suggest at least some isold coverage across the area over the next few hours. The fcst includes isold-scattered shwrs and tstms for the rest of this aftn and into this eve. An isold svr cannot be ruled out with 0-6kt bulk shear about 30-40kt per the NAM. Overnight convection is not expected attm with a different flow regime in place and the upr low of the past few days passing out to sea. The NBM was followed for temps tngt.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches this aftn and eve due to a continued SE swell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A backdoor cold front passes on Fri. At least sct shwrs and tstms are expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary aft 16Z or so. Little change was needed to previous fcst timing, although probabilities were increased across the board due to a good model consensus and favorable timing during the daytime. Across ern portions of the area, temps will likely fall in the aftn behind the front. Across wrn areas, temps may cool due to convection. However, temps ahead of the front have a tendency to warm greater than guidance, so areas from the Hudson River wwd may eclipse fcst highs. As the front tracks w of the fcst area Fri ngt, a more stable airmass will build in. This would normally end pcpn chances, but there is some potential shrtwv energy approaching from the nw which could spark some additional rain. As a result, low chances for shwrs have been kept in the fcst thru the ngt. The NBM was followed for temps.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday due to a SE swell.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tranquil conditions expected over the weekend with weak high pressure at the surface and seasonable temperatures as the area will be upper level shortwave off the mid-Atlantic coast and a building ridge over the middle of the country.

Another back door cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. There is uncertainty as to whether it actually will push south of the area. Regardless, the frontal boundary become stationary and remain in the vicinity through the middle of next week. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday night (only a slight chance for southeastern Connecticut) and continuing through next Thursday. This period will be characterized by typical summertime diurnal showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary appears to be weak with very Little forcing. Chances for precipitation are greatest during the day and lessen at night. In fact, Tuesday night may be dry for the entire forecast area as upper level ridging moves over the region and may provide enough subsidence to overcome the weak lift from the frontal boundary. However, a passing shower or thunderstorm could not be ruled out a this point during those time frames. Best chances for precipitation will occur away from the coast where the more unstable air will reside.

With ridging moving into the area and high pressure over the northern Atlantic at the surface, a warm and humid air mass will set up for at least Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly Thursday, setting up the first potential heat wave of the season. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame, with the warmest readings expected across the New York City metro area and northeast New Jersey. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s to around 70 (and possibly even lower to middle 70s). This would translate to heat index values in the middle to upper 90s range, leading to possible Heat Advisories being issued. Wednesday and Thursday seem like the more likely days, with Tuesday possibly seeing more isolated heat index values of 95 to 99.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to weaken and drift east today. A cold front will pass through on Friday.

VFR through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for a developing afternoon shower or isolated thunderstorm mainly for KSWF.

NW winds under 10 kt. Afternoon sea breeze development is likely at coastal terminals after 18z. Winds turn west/northwest late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Fri. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible. Sat. Mainly VFR. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas. Tuesday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls thru Fri ngt. With a weak pressure gradient over the region through the weekend, winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. Some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible on Fri with any stronger tstms that develop. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that develop Monday through Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference remains toward a blend with the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This brings water levels close to minor coastal flood benchmarks along the south shore bays of Nassau county this evening. Thus, a statement has been issued to address this potential. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual uptick through the weekend due to the approaching full moon. Thus, there is the potential for a statement and/or advisory level event Friday through Sunday. The south shore bays of western Nassau appear to be most susceptible.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 24 mi45 min SE 1.9 G 5.8 82°F 67°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 25 mi75 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 82°F 1 ft68°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi42 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 88°F 1008.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi42 min 82°F 71°F1008.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi42 min S 5.1 G 7 85°F 1008 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi42 min S 8 G 9.9 85°F 70°F1007 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi42 min 88°F 74°F1008.1 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi42 min NNE 4.1 G 7
NPXN6 44 mi60 min WNW 1 89°F 1009 hPa66°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY13 mi34 minNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds90°F60°F37%1007.6 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY23 mi45 minNW 820.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F62°F41%1008.8 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi39 minNNW 810.00 miFair92°F57°F32%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5SE5SE3CalmE6CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW5NW6NW6NW5NW4W7NW5W6NW8NW4W8NW5NW10NW9
1 day agoE6SE5--CalmSW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5N4W4NW5N44N1236Calm54NE7
2 days agoNE6NE4NW6NW4NW6CalmNW7N4NW5N7N8NW7NW6N74N8NW10NW12N8E6N6NE5E63

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:49 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.90.3-0.10.20.91.72.32.72.82.621.30.80.2-0.10.10.91.92.73.33.63.63

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:20 AM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:31 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.10.50.70.70.4-0-0.6-1-1.3-1.3-1-0.6-0.10.61.11.10.90.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.