Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flat Rock, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this evening with minimal impacts expected.

2) A more prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this weekend and continue into next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Regional satellite and radar observations reveal light snow showers across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, aided mainly by ice-free areas of central Lake Huron and far northern Lake Erie where ice has shifted away from the Canadian shoreline. High pressure will gradually build into the region from the west tonight, introducing drier air and shifting boundary layer flow towards the west to southwest. Any residual light snow showers are expected to diminish overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Above average temperatures are poised to return on Saturday as a large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. The latest guidance suggests that this ridge should persist through mid-week while a more dominant trough gradually moves east across the Western CONUS.
A brief period of widespread rain is likely on Wednesday associated with a lifting warm front, particularly across the far north and northeast portion of the area. At this point, total rainfall amounts appear on the lighter side, with only about a 20 to 40% chance of more than a quarter of an inch.

In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s into mid-next week. Minimal or generally light precipitation is expected through Wednesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on area rivers and a melting snowpack.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Clouds will continue to scatter out tonight as high pressure builds into the region, with lingering lake-effect flurries and light snow showers in NE Ohio and NW PA ending. This will take the longest at KERI, but VFR is expected to dominate overnight through Friday.

Light and variable or NW winds tonight will become SW by Friday morning and increase to 5-10 knots in the afternoon.

Outlook...Mostly VFR is expected.

MARINE
Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered at this time. Warm weather in the forecast will likely cause some slow deterioration of the ice later this weekend into next week. Winds will remain light 10 knots or less through Friday while gradually backing to a more southwesterly direction. Southwest winds will briefly increase to 10-20kt Friday night. Mainly light winds expected this weekend into early next week.

Some ice movement to the northeast is possible Friday night, though it is not as confident if the brief period of elevated southwest winds will be enough to push ice fastened to the shoreline out into the lake (i.e. ice floes). Still, something to keep in mind. Slow deterioration of the ice is likely Sunday into next next week due to a period of milder than average temperatures. Winds will be light and limited precipitation through at least Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.