Flat Rock, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flat Rock, OH

June 20, 2024 2:54 AM EDT (06:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM
Moonrise 7:24 PM   Moonset 3:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:202406200815;;324020 Fzus51 Kcle 200150 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 950 pm edt Wed jun 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-200815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 950 pm edt Wed jun 19 2024

Rest of tonight - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday - Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Thursday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 70 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 200603 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridge remains in place through this week. A weak cold front sags southward into northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Thursday before lifting back northward as a warm front Friday. Low pressure system arrives by the end of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
8:00 PM Update: Modest convergence over Northwest OH has led to a few strong to severe, slow-moving thunderstorms this evening. Isolated damaging winds and locally heavy rain are the main concerns.
Activity will gradually subside by later this evening. No major changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion: Unseasonably warm and moist environment continues as a ridge of high pressure remains draped over the region. This air mass has allowed for another day of strong diurnal heating leading to MLCAPE values to rise to 2500+ J/kg and pop up thunderstorms to develop along the Indiana/Ohio border this afternoon. Primary concern as these storms build east into Northwest and North Central Ohio remains to be damaging wind gusts, though enhanced shear this afternoon may lead to instances of hail and/or a tornado. As with convection this past week, expect for thunderstorms to diminish in intensity and coverage this evening as we lose daytime heating.

The ridge sinks south as a weak cold front enters the region from the north. We won't see much relief from the heat and convection as the front sags south of Lake Erie on Thursday. Still well above normal with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s accompanied by dew points near 70 degrees. Anticipate for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the cold front Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridge retrogrades to the west over the Mississippi Valley by Friday. The weak frontal boundary is expected to have stalled across inland areas with a light northerly flow across most of the area.
Locations downwind of Lake Erie in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania will see temperatures drop back into the 80s while inland areas remain in the low 90 to mid 90s. May be able to consider dropping a few counties in our northeastern area from the Heat Advisory but will probably be needed again by Saturday so will hold off on any changes at this time.

Moderate instability will remain along the stalled boundary on Friday and scattered thunderstorms are possible again. A limiting factor will be if the boundary pushes south of the area or if dewpoints drop off more than expected. The boundary pushes back north as a warm front on Saturday ahead of low pressure moving into the Upper Great Lakes. Heat indices rebound into the 95-100 degree range for all areas although with a little more mixing and lower humidity. Chance of thunderstorms should be a little lower on Saturday except perhaps if a lake breeze develops in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure will pass north of Lake Huron on Sunday ahead of a trough dropping into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead and along the cold front that is forecast to move through the area during peak heating. While the instability may not be as high as some of the previous days this week, forcing along the front will be better and would expect some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Monday does bring some relief from the heat as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and humidity drops off. The respite is pretty short lived as some amplification of the upper level ridge occurs on Tuesday. The ridge axis is positioned over the Plains through the middle of next week and a lower confidence aspect of the forecast is if some more organized complex of thunderstorms rounds the ridge and approaches the local area. The GFS and Canadian both show something passing near but just west of our area Tuesday into Wednesday which is more realistically where the higher instability will be located.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Showers and storms persist across Lake Erie this morning with a trajectory just north of KERI. Still worth a brief VCTS mention, but impacts at the terminal seem minimal outside of any brief wind shift with an orphaned outflow boundary. High clouds remain across the region from Wednesday's convection and will continue into the morning hours today. New diurnal cumulus will form during the early afternoon hours, starting in NW OH and NW PA, eventually expanding across the rest of northern Ohio. There will be new afternoon storm chances later Thursday afternoon and have some VCTS mentions at KYNG, KTOL, and KFDY to highlight scattered TS in those corners of the airspace. However, confidence in location and coverage are still fairly limited. TS chances and diurnal cumulus will wane during the evening hours.
Winds will be very light through the period with variable direction. Southerly flow will be favored through daybreak before westerly winds begin inland and more northerly flow becomes more favored off a modified lake breeze in the northern terminals.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions are possible again Friday afternoon. More organized thunderstorms with non-VFR conditions possible Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
Good marine conditions with winds of 10 knots or less will continue through Friday. The main concern will be gusty winds associated with any thunderstorms that develop on the lake which could exceed 40 knots. Southwest winds increase to around 10 knots Saturday and 10 to 20 knots by Sunday ahead of the front, shifting to west behind the front later Sunday. Waves build to 2 to 4 feet across the mid- section of the lake and will monitor for any strengthening for possible Small Craft Advisory conditions. Onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue on Monday as high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Thursday, June 19 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)
06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45202 23 mi44 min3.9G5.8 79°F 79°F0 ft30.2574°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi54 minS 5.1G5.1 78°F 30.22
OWMO1 23 mi54 minSSE 1.9 75°F 72°F
45203 24 mi44 minSSE 1.9G1.9 75°F 74°F0 ft73°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 24 mi69 min0 73°F 30.2772°F
CMPO1 25 mi84 minNE 5.1G6 78°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi60 minE 2.9G2.9 77°F 74°F30.2468°F
45201 28 mi44 min9.7G12 77°F 77°F0 ft30.3073°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi54 minENE 8.9G12 76°F 30.25
45165 40 mi54 minE 12G14 78°F 78°F1 ft
TWCO1 40 mi45 min13G15 77°F 73°F73°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi44 minE 14G18 73°F 73°F30.2770°F
LORO1 42 mi84 minS 1.9G1.9 80°F
45200 44 mi54 min9.7G14 78°F 78°F30.2573°F
45204 46 mi44 minENE 1.9G3.9 73°F0 ft
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 46 mi54 minE 11G13 76°F 30.2472°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi60 minE 7G8.9 78°F 30.2272°F


Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPCW ERIEOTTAWA INTL,OH 22 sm19 minENE 0310 smOvercast77°F73°F89%30.26
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Wind History graph: MFD
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Cleveland, OH,




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