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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support. |
| Sunrise 6:56AM | Sunset 6:23PM | Wednesday March 3, 2021 4:43 AM MST (11:43 UTC) | Moonrise 11:55PM | Moonset 9:39AM | Illumination 77% |  |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hooper, UT
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location: 41.21, -112.58 debug
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionFXUS65 KSLC 031044 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 344 AM MST Wed Mar 3 2021
SYNOPSIS. High pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions today. The next storm system will impact Utah tonight into Thursday. High pressure returns Friday before another weak storm system arrives for the weekend. A more active weather pattern appears to be ahead for next week.
SHORT TERM (Through 5 AM Saturday). High pressure slides eastward today ahead of the next approaching storm system seen on satellite imagery this morning nearing the California coast. Southerly flow aloft will increase across the forecast area today as this low pressure system approaches, while easterly flow develops at the surface across northern and central Utah in response to the surface pressure gradient between high pressure in SW Wyoming and low pressure nearing Las Vegas. The resultant downslope flow along the Wasatch Front and increased mixing ahead of the storm system should result in the warmest day so far this year for many locations. KSLC has not hit 60 degrees yet this year, and there is about a 40% chance of reaching 60 today, even though the official forecast high is 59. Meanwhile St George has a 70% chance of exceeding 70 degrees, with the official forecast high of 73. In addition, near-critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon in southwest Utah where southerly winds will be strongest with gusts up to 25-30 mph expected with min RH values around 10-15 percent, and ERC values near record dry levels for this time of year.
This evening, upper-level diffluence ahead of the approaching storm system increases over southwest Utah, while southerly flow and moisture advection quickly ramp up precipitation over southwest Utah. This area of optimal synoptic forcing will quickly migrate northeastward through central Utah into northeastern Utah by Thursday morning, while westerly to northwesterly flow develops on the back side of the trough passage. Thus expect a brief period (<6 hrs) of optimal synoptic forcing plus optimal southerly upslope flow for the southern Utah mountains Wednesday evening, before precipitation develops northeastward with time through Thursday morning. The main area of uncertainty is the northwestward extent of precipitation Thursday morning as deformation axis is expected to develop on the northwest periphery of the storm. Models continue to struggle with the placement of this band, with the more northerly solutions into Salt Lake or even Davis Counties, while more southerly solutions keep the band limited to Utah County or even only southern portions of Utah County.
As for precipitation type, this will be a very mild storm system so most lower elevation precipitation will be rain or a mix with snow in the early morning hours, but marginal temperatures will limit the potential for any lower elevation snow accumulation. For the mountains, the best chance of descent snow accumulations will be above 7000 feet. Generally expect 2-4 inches for the mountains above about 7000 feet, with locally higher totals over 6 inches possible for prominent Southern Mountains locations like the Tushars, Brian Head and Boulder Mountain. Wrap around precipitation will linger over portions of northern and central Utah through Thursday morning, but the storm system will quickly exit to the east while ridging upstream quickly builds into northwest Utah Thursday afternoon bringing a rapid clearing and drying trend by late Thursday.
As the cut-off low passage late Wednesday into Thursday is mainly undercutting the dominate ridge over the west-central CONUS, once the low moves downstream we see heights quickly rebound Friday into Saturday. Thus the cooler, near-average, temperatures with the storm passage on Thursday will quickly rebound to 10-15 degrees above normal Friday, along with a return to sunny skies.
LONG TERM (After 5 AM Saturday). Warmer than average conditions are expected to continue for the weekend. Ahead of a trough entering the Great Basin region Saturday, southwest Wyoming and Utah will have deep layer southwest flow and associated warm air advection. Guidance has trended toward the ECMWF and EPS members in bringing the trough through northern Utah. The GFS and most of the GEFS members still have it riding along the ridge and translating into the southwest flow, missing the area to the north. Regardless, the trough will be weakening as it moves east. A chance for rain and snow is expected mainly in the northern Utah mountains Saturday afternoon into the evening, but the biggest effect with this system will likely be increased southwest flow and temperatures over 10F warmer than average through most of the area.
A cool down will likely follow Sunday in northern Utah, although temperatures should still remain warmer than average. More southwest flow before what models indicate being a stronger trough is expected Monday. That should result in slightly warmer conditions than Sunday. There are timing and location differences on the troughs into next week, but the overall pattern will trend to be cooler and more active. The latest CPC 6-10 Day Outlook indicates this, with a greater than 50% chance of cooler than average conditions and a better chance for more than average precipitation over less than average.
With the general pattern expected to be cooler with more precipitation, but discrepancies in a precise setup, the National Blend of Models has snow chances in the northern Utah mountains Monday through Wednesday. Valleys have lesser PoPs, and highs during the day will reach warm enough for rain, but lows will get cold enough for snow. Not much in the way of any rain or snow is expected in the valleys. As for the mountains, there will be some snow accumulation, but confidence is low as to how much.
AVIATION. VFR conditions are expected at KSLC through the valid TAF period. Skies will remain mainly clear, with only a few high clouds expected through most of the day. Winds will transition to the northwest around 20Z and switch back to the southeast around 03Z with increasing clouds.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.
SHORT TERM . Church LONG TERM . Wilson AVIATION . Wilson
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a mapAirport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Ogden-Hinckley Airport, UT | 30 mi | 51 min | SSE 7 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 34°F | 17°F | 50% | 1013.9 hPa |
Link to 5 minute data for KOGD
Wind History from OGD (wind in knots)
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| 2 days ago | S | S | S | S | S | Calm | Calm | Calm | W | SW | W | SW | Calm | SE | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
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