Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hooper, UT
April 26, 2024 6:14 AM MDT (12:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 10:47 PM Moonset 6:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 261035 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 435 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue into the weekend, resulting in valley rain and mountain snow along with a cooling trend.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...Cooler, wet weather will continue across the area today and through the bulk of the short term forecast period as a series of weather disturbances continue to cross the area. This will bring mountain snow and valley rain along with scattered thunderstorms to much of the forecast area.
A weak disturbance is currently rippling through northern Utah. This has resulted in the line of showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking east across the Wasatch Mountains at this time. Slightly farther upstream, the next storm system is carving into the Pacific Northwest states and into the western Great Basin. An associated upper jet is rounding the base of the mean trough, punching into the desert southwest. Upper diffluence along the left exit region of this jet and ahead of the approaching trough has already resulted n some precipitation across southwest Utah, and this will only increase from western to eastern Utah through the morning hours and into the afternoon, when scattered to widespread showers are expected. A closed circulation is then progged to develop over Utah tonight, with bands of showers expected to rotate counter-clockwise through the area. Precipitation will increasingly favor western and northern Utah heading deeper into the night with moisture wrapping around the low in association with a TROWAL feature. By tomorrow afternoon, the low center will be east of Utah, with a north to northwest flow settling over Utah. This will cause precipitation to become increasingly confined to the spine of Utah and eastern valleys through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.
The ECMWF-based Extreme Forecast Index is still indicating a signal for anomalously high QPF today and, to a slightly lesser extent, tomorrow. However, while showers may be fairly widespread, the heaviest precipitation rates will be associated with the stronger showers, which can be hit and miss at times. In addition, latest HRRR ensemble means of SBCAPE values remain under 250J/kg today, with isolated spots of up to 500J/kg. As a result, have trended with a bit lower (though still substantial) QPF for today. However, with cooler air spreading into the area, snow levels will be lower today and tomorrow, generally in the 7500-8500ft range. This will result in better snow accumulations. While snow amounts have trended down a bit this shift, significant accumulations are still expected above around 8000-8500ft, and have maintained going Winter Weather Advisories. Impacts will remain limited below this elevation range.
However, will have to monitor how the additional rain in the lower elevations impact streamflows, which are already a bit high due to snowmelt.
Otherwise, afternoon max surface temperatures will be significantly (~10F) cooler today, falling below climatological normals, with similarly cool temperatures continuing tomorrow.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...With the main portion of the late week/ early weekend storm system well east of the area, Sunday will feature generally warmer and drier conditions. That said, lingering moisture in the lower levels will combine with a trailing shortwave disturbance on Sunday which will help to bring another day of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Utah mountains and southwest Wyoming. Not expecting much in the way of rain/ snow accumulations, however, high elevation terrain seeing multiple showers could see upwards of 1 inch of snowfall (above ~7,500-8,000ft). Temperature-wise, we should see warming of about 5 degrees across the board as warmer air moves in overhead.
Moving into the first half of the week, ensemble guidance continues to point toward a broad trough remaining in place over the PacNW region, which will keep an active storm track just to the north of us. Within this broad trough, expecting a couple rounds of shortwave troughs progressing through the mean flow which are showing increasing potential of skirting along the northern half of Utah.
The first of these waves is progged to swing through the area through the day on Monday, helping to kick off another round of showers across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. In addition to the showers, a surface cold front is also anticipated to drop into northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming, however, there is some uncertainty with how far south it progresses. At this point, the resulting airmass will have a limited lifespan over the area, so not expecting much in the way of cooling. The shortwave lifts out of the area through Monday night, however, lingering moisture and weak instability may still allow for afternoon cloud buildups to develop into light showers in the northern Utah mountains on Tuesday afternoon.
A second wave looks to progress to the north of the area in the wake of the aforementioned on Wednesday, however, there is considerable uncertainty in how far south this wave will track. In fact, only about 30% of ensemble members progress this feature far enough south to generate appreciable precipitation. However, these 30% of ensemble members supporting a deeper trough would also favor much cooler temperatures than forecast. For example, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile in NBM temperature forecasts is about 16 degrees (ranging from 62 to 78)! Will certainly need to monitor trends in this trailing wave.
A progressive pattern remains in place heading into the late week as zonal flow remains steadfast over the northern half of the forecast area and another trough develops in the PacNW region. Ensembles hold off on the trough moving into the region until the weekend, which would also delay the associated precipitation and cooler air. Still seeing plenty of uncertainty in the models at this time, with a nearly 50/50 split between above average mid-level heights vs below average.
AVIATION
KSLC...Lowering cloud bases and increasing shower activity will be the name of the game today as a storm system arrives in Utah. Expecting vicinity showers through a majority of the day, with the most likely period to see showers impacting the terminal from 20-01Z. During this time, there is a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms moving over KSLC. CIGs will remain around 4-5kft AGL through the day, lowering to around 3kft AGL with passing showers.
Expect variable winds through the morning with light northerlies prevailing after 15Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...An active weather day with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across Utah and southwest Wyoming during the day today. VFR conditions will prevail outside of showers with CIGs generally in the 4-5kft AGL range. Within showers, expect MVFR CIGs . At higher elevation terminals (e.g. KEVW/ KBCE) expect periods of rain-snow mix to bring MVFR to IFR due to VIS restrictions.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ113-117- 125.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 435 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue into the weekend, resulting in valley rain and mountain snow along with a cooling trend.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...Cooler, wet weather will continue across the area today and through the bulk of the short term forecast period as a series of weather disturbances continue to cross the area. This will bring mountain snow and valley rain along with scattered thunderstorms to much of the forecast area.
A weak disturbance is currently rippling through northern Utah. This has resulted in the line of showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking east across the Wasatch Mountains at this time. Slightly farther upstream, the next storm system is carving into the Pacific Northwest states and into the western Great Basin. An associated upper jet is rounding the base of the mean trough, punching into the desert southwest. Upper diffluence along the left exit region of this jet and ahead of the approaching trough has already resulted n some precipitation across southwest Utah, and this will only increase from western to eastern Utah through the morning hours and into the afternoon, when scattered to widespread showers are expected. A closed circulation is then progged to develop over Utah tonight, with bands of showers expected to rotate counter-clockwise through the area. Precipitation will increasingly favor western and northern Utah heading deeper into the night with moisture wrapping around the low in association with a TROWAL feature. By tomorrow afternoon, the low center will be east of Utah, with a north to northwest flow settling over Utah. This will cause precipitation to become increasingly confined to the spine of Utah and eastern valleys through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.
The ECMWF-based Extreme Forecast Index is still indicating a signal for anomalously high QPF today and, to a slightly lesser extent, tomorrow. However, while showers may be fairly widespread, the heaviest precipitation rates will be associated with the stronger showers, which can be hit and miss at times. In addition, latest HRRR ensemble means of SBCAPE values remain under 250J/kg today, with isolated spots of up to 500J/kg. As a result, have trended with a bit lower (though still substantial) QPF for today. However, with cooler air spreading into the area, snow levels will be lower today and tomorrow, generally in the 7500-8500ft range. This will result in better snow accumulations. While snow amounts have trended down a bit this shift, significant accumulations are still expected above around 8000-8500ft, and have maintained going Winter Weather Advisories. Impacts will remain limited below this elevation range.
However, will have to monitor how the additional rain in the lower elevations impact streamflows, which are already a bit high due to snowmelt.
Otherwise, afternoon max surface temperatures will be significantly (~10F) cooler today, falling below climatological normals, with similarly cool temperatures continuing tomorrow.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...With the main portion of the late week/ early weekend storm system well east of the area, Sunday will feature generally warmer and drier conditions. That said, lingering moisture in the lower levels will combine with a trailing shortwave disturbance on Sunday which will help to bring another day of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Utah mountains and southwest Wyoming. Not expecting much in the way of rain/ snow accumulations, however, high elevation terrain seeing multiple showers could see upwards of 1 inch of snowfall (above ~7,500-8,000ft). Temperature-wise, we should see warming of about 5 degrees across the board as warmer air moves in overhead.
Moving into the first half of the week, ensemble guidance continues to point toward a broad trough remaining in place over the PacNW region, which will keep an active storm track just to the north of us. Within this broad trough, expecting a couple rounds of shortwave troughs progressing through the mean flow which are showing increasing potential of skirting along the northern half of Utah.
The first of these waves is progged to swing through the area through the day on Monday, helping to kick off another round of showers across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. In addition to the showers, a surface cold front is also anticipated to drop into northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming, however, there is some uncertainty with how far south it progresses. At this point, the resulting airmass will have a limited lifespan over the area, so not expecting much in the way of cooling. The shortwave lifts out of the area through Monday night, however, lingering moisture and weak instability may still allow for afternoon cloud buildups to develop into light showers in the northern Utah mountains on Tuesday afternoon.
A second wave looks to progress to the north of the area in the wake of the aforementioned on Wednesday, however, there is considerable uncertainty in how far south this wave will track. In fact, only about 30% of ensemble members progress this feature far enough south to generate appreciable precipitation. However, these 30% of ensemble members supporting a deeper trough would also favor much cooler temperatures than forecast. For example, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile in NBM temperature forecasts is about 16 degrees (ranging from 62 to 78)! Will certainly need to monitor trends in this trailing wave.
A progressive pattern remains in place heading into the late week as zonal flow remains steadfast over the northern half of the forecast area and another trough develops in the PacNW region. Ensembles hold off on the trough moving into the region until the weekend, which would also delay the associated precipitation and cooler air. Still seeing plenty of uncertainty in the models at this time, with a nearly 50/50 split between above average mid-level heights vs below average.
AVIATION
KSLC...Lowering cloud bases and increasing shower activity will be the name of the game today as a storm system arrives in Utah. Expecting vicinity showers through a majority of the day, with the most likely period to see showers impacting the terminal from 20-01Z. During this time, there is a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms moving over KSLC. CIGs will remain around 4-5kft AGL through the day, lowering to around 3kft AGL with passing showers.
Expect variable winds through the morning with light northerlies prevailing after 15Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...An active weather day with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across Utah and southwest Wyoming during the day today. VFR conditions will prevail outside of showers with CIGs generally in the 4-5kft AGL range. Within showers, expect MVFR CIGs . At higher elevation terminals (e.g. KEVW/ KBCE) expect periods of rain-snow mix to bring MVFR to IFR due to VIS restrictions.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ111-112.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ113-117- 125.
WY...None.
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