Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hooper, UT
December 7, 2023 7:58 PM MST (02:58 UTC)
Sunrise 7:38AM Sunset 5:00PM Moonrise 2:07AM Moonset 2:01PM
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 072243 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 343 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
A quick hitting winter storm will impact mainly northern and central Utah through early Saturday. The weather pattern will stay progressive, with additional weak disturbances expected to impact Utah into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...Quasi-zonal flow remains across the region this afternoon. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates the beginning of a deepening trough is now over the northwestern United States. This will become the main feature over the next 24 hours or so. An associated jet max is nearing the Oregon Coast.
Currently, occasional showers are developing near the Idaho/Utah border. Expect a cold front associated with the deepening trough to reach northwestern Utah later this evening, crossing the Wasatch Front near 08Z or so. Current guidance indicates a band of moderate to heavy snow associated with this front will cross the Wasatch Front between 08Z and 12Z. This quick burst of snow may bring slushy accumulations to valley floors and potentially a quick coating of snow to bench routes, but the duration and timing suggest most of this snow should be mitigated prior to the bulk of the Friday morning commute (for valley routes). Thus, did not issue a winter weather advisory for the Wasatch Front, however if timing shifts and/or a longer period of higher intensity snow is expected, this may require later shifts to issue a winter weather advisory. Snow showers may continue, potentially heavy at times across the Wasatch Front into Friday afternoon...though any accumulations on road surfaces will likely be limited to intensity given warm antecedent conditions and daytime hours. Lake effect snow will be discussed a bit later.
The equation changes for the Wasatch Back. With colder antecedent conditions and a longer duration of precipitation, expect higher accumulations for the Park City area in particular as well as the Ogden Valley. Heber and other somewhat lower elevation valleys may see substantially less than Park City (around 2 inches). Issued a winter weather advisory due to accumulating snow impacting portions of the Wasatch Back, especially Park City, during both the Friday morning and Friday evening commutes.
For the Wasatch Mountains, particularly areas that favor westerly and northwesterly flow, expect periods of heavy snow to begin after around 2-3 AM and continue through at least mid-morning.
Periods of snow will likely continue into the evening, especially for the Wasatch from Ogden southward to Little Cottonwood Canyon.
A general 8 to 18 inches is expected for the Wasatch with locally up to 2 feet for the Upper Cottonwoods. Given the high snowfall rates and expected travel impacts, issued a winter storm warning for the Wasatch Mountains. With less snow expected for the remainder of the northern and central mountains, issued a winter weather advisory for occasional travel impacts.
The other question is the potential for lake effect snow Friday evening into Saturday morning. The relatively warm lake combined with 700mb temperatures near -12C or so would support lake effect snow potential, however, this will be fighting low level dry air advection. Current probabilities from the University of Utah Lake Effect Guidance peaks at ~40% near midnight Friday night and then decreases below 20% largely after 4 AM. CAMs suggest initial development would be southeast of the GSL into the Cottonwood Canyons, quickly veering toward the west side of the Salt Lake Valley and then finally into the Tooele Valley before ending. This transition would keep any particular place from receiving much additional snow, but it's something to monitor as any shift in the predominant wind direction would have a big impact in location.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...The extended period begins with some cold air that will be in the area for Saturday morning. The 700 mb temperatures at the time will range from -12C and -14C resulting in overnight lows for Saturday morning to be in the upper teens to near 20F for the Wasatch Front. With this cold air in place and some leftover moisture from this upcoming storm, there is a 10%- 20% chance of some lake effect snow showers for Saturday morning. There is not expected to be much relief during the day Saturday as the cold air will be exiting, but not before impacting the high temperatures. Highs will be between 5F and 10F below normal. This means highs will be in the low 30s across much of the Wasatch Front and near 50F for Lower Washington County and Zion NP.
Heading into Sunday, an AR will be moving onshore in the Pac NW area and some of that moisture is expected to get in to southern Idaho. This may reach far northern Utah, near the border, where a low chance (around 20%) of precipitation is possible. After this, we will continue to see unsettled northwesterly flow leading to a couple of shortwaves moving through Utah during the early portions of next week. Both systems will increase the moisture aloft a little bit, however with weak synoptic lift, the greatest chance of seeing precipitation would have to be orographically enhanced.
The second shortwave in particular looks to have the best chance of producing precipitation. The current forecast has between a 20% and 25% chance of mountain snow showers occurring for the northern mountains and the Uinta mountains.
Focusing on the second shortwave, ensemble guidance is continuing to hone in on it closing off and becoming a cutoff low. Currently about 65% of ensemble members support this solution whereas the other 35% support a weaker shortwave that just moves through Utah with limited impacts. The cutoff low solution could become more interesting as we get closer. This will be something to watch as we head into the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...Cloud coverage will continue to increase over the evening and into the night with the approaching storm system.
The normal southerly wind shift will occur ~03Z with light winds before back to the north as the storm moves in by 06-07Z. Precip could start as rain very briefly before switching to snow showers that will degrade CIG/VIS conditions to MVFR. Conditions rebound back to VFR by sunrise with vicinity showers likely creating mountain obscuration. Strengthened northerly winds gusting near 20 knots at times for the remainder of the morning.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Cloud coverage will continue to increase over the evening and into the night, primarily over the northern half of the state with the approaching storm system. Precip starting as rain very briefly before switching to snow showers that will degrade CIG/VIS conditions to MVFR/IFR for PVU northward terminals. Conditions rebound back to VFR by sunrise with vicinity showers likely creating mountain obscuration. Strengthened northerly winds gusting near 20 knots at times for the remainder of the morning. Southern UT sites stay cloudy yet dry with northerly winds for the period.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ108.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ110-111.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ112- 113-117.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 343 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
A quick hitting winter storm will impact mainly northern and central Utah through early Saturday. The weather pattern will stay progressive, with additional weak disturbances expected to impact Utah into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...Quasi-zonal flow remains across the region this afternoon. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates the beginning of a deepening trough is now over the northwestern United States. This will become the main feature over the next 24 hours or so. An associated jet max is nearing the Oregon Coast.
Currently, occasional showers are developing near the Idaho/Utah border. Expect a cold front associated with the deepening trough to reach northwestern Utah later this evening, crossing the Wasatch Front near 08Z or so. Current guidance indicates a band of moderate to heavy snow associated with this front will cross the Wasatch Front between 08Z and 12Z. This quick burst of snow may bring slushy accumulations to valley floors and potentially a quick coating of snow to bench routes, but the duration and timing suggest most of this snow should be mitigated prior to the bulk of the Friday morning commute (for valley routes). Thus, did not issue a winter weather advisory for the Wasatch Front, however if timing shifts and/or a longer period of higher intensity snow is expected, this may require later shifts to issue a winter weather advisory. Snow showers may continue, potentially heavy at times across the Wasatch Front into Friday afternoon...though any accumulations on road surfaces will likely be limited to intensity given warm antecedent conditions and daytime hours. Lake effect snow will be discussed a bit later.
The equation changes for the Wasatch Back. With colder antecedent conditions and a longer duration of precipitation, expect higher accumulations for the Park City area in particular as well as the Ogden Valley. Heber and other somewhat lower elevation valleys may see substantially less than Park City (around 2 inches). Issued a winter weather advisory due to accumulating snow impacting portions of the Wasatch Back, especially Park City, during both the Friday morning and Friday evening commutes.
For the Wasatch Mountains, particularly areas that favor westerly and northwesterly flow, expect periods of heavy snow to begin after around 2-3 AM and continue through at least mid-morning.
Periods of snow will likely continue into the evening, especially for the Wasatch from Ogden southward to Little Cottonwood Canyon.
A general 8 to 18 inches is expected for the Wasatch with locally up to 2 feet for the Upper Cottonwoods. Given the high snowfall rates and expected travel impacts, issued a winter storm warning for the Wasatch Mountains. With less snow expected for the remainder of the northern and central mountains, issued a winter weather advisory for occasional travel impacts.
The other question is the potential for lake effect snow Friday evening into Saturday morning. The relatively warm lake combined with 700mb temperatures near -12C or so would support lake effect snow potential, however, this will be fighting low level dry air advection. Current probabilities from the University of Utah Lake Effect Guidance peaks at ~40% near midnight Friday night and then decreases below 20% largely after 4 AM. CAMs suggest initial development would be southeast of the GSL into the Cottonwood Canyons, quickly veering toward the west side of the Salt Lake Valley and then finally into the Tooele Valley before ending. This transition would keep any particular place from receiving much additional snow, but it's something to monitor as any shift in the predominant wind direction would have a big impact in location.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...The extended period begins with some cold air that will be in the area for Saturday morning. The 700 mb temperatures at the time will range from -12C and -14C resulting in overnight lows for Saturday morning to be in the upper teens to near 20F for the Wasatch Front. With this cold air in place and some leftover moisture from this upcoming storm, there is a 10%- 20% chance of some lake effect snow showers for Saturday morning. There is not expected to be much relief during the day Saturday as the cold air will be exiting, but not before impacting the high temperatures. Highs will be between 5F and 10F below normal. This means highs will be in the low 30s across much of the Wasatch Front and near 50F for Lower Washington County and Zion NP.
Heading into Sunday, an AR will be moving onshore in the Pac NW area and some of that moisture is expected to get in to southern Idaho. This may reach far northern Utah, near the border, where a low chance (around 20%) of precipitation is possible. After this, we will continue to see unsettled northwesterly flow leading to a couple of shortwaves moving through Utah during the early portions of next week. Both systems will increase the moisture aloft a little bit, however with weak synoptic lift, the greatest chance of seeing precipitation would have to be orographically enhanced.
The second shortwave in particular looks to have the best chance of producing precipitation. The current forecast has between a 20% and 25% chance of mountain snow showers occurring for the northern mountains and the Uinta mountains.
Focusing on the second shortwave, ensemble guidance is continuing to hone in on it closing off and becoming a cutoff low. Currently about 65% of ensemble members support this solution whereas the other 35% support a weaker shortwave that just moves through Utah with limited impacts. The cutoff low solution could become more interesting as we get closer. This will be something to watch as we head into the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...Cloud coverage will continue to increase over the evening and into the night with the approaching storm system.
The normal southerly wind shift will occur ~03Z with light winds before back to the north as the storm moves in by 06-07Z. Precip could start as rain very briefly before switching to snow showers that will degrade CIG/VIS conditions to MVFR. Conditions rebound back to VFR by sunrise with vicinity showers likely creating mountain obscuration. Strengthened northerly winds gusting near 20 knots at times for the remainder of the morning.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Cloud coverage will continue to increase over the evening and into the night, primarily over the northern half of the state with the approaching storm system. Precip starting as rain very briefly before switching to snow showers that will degrade CIG/VIS conditions to MVFR/IFR for PVU northward terminals. Conditions rebound back to VFR by sunrise with vicinity showers likely creating mountain obscuration. Strengthened northerly winds gusting near 20 knots at times for the remainder of the morning. Southern UT sites stay cloudy yet dry with northerly winds for the period.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ108.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ110-111.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ112- 113-117.
WY...None.
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