Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 3, 2020 1:23 PM EDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:29PMMoonset 5:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1252 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1252 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will stall within the area and weaken today into tonight. Impacts from tropical storm isaias are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. As isaias rides quickly northeast of the area on Wednesday a cold front will push off to the east, followed by building high pressure later next week. Please refer to national hurricane center forecasts for further details on isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Island, NY
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location: 41.21, -72.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 031653 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1253 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level trough axis over the Great Lakes region moves little through mid week. A surface front pushes just east of the Long Island then stalls over the area today. The southwest flow steers Isaias north along the East Coast through the near term.

Impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. As Isaias rides quickly northeast of the area on Wednesday a cold front will push off to the east, followed by building high pressure later next week and into the start of next weekend. A weak disturbance may pass by the north for late next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. With higher confidence of tropical storm force winds to impact inland areas that previously had watches in effect, upgraded those areas to warnings. The entire forecast area is now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

As the surface low pressure system exits the northeast drier air briefly settles in behind the slow moving trailing surface front. Dew points fall into the mid 60s during the day owing to a combination of the change of airmass and ample diurnal mixing. Clearer skies will help ambient temperatures reach the upper 80s and low 90s through out the area by the afternoon.

Late Monday afternoon into the evening sees a potential predecessor rainfall event. The deep trough over the Great Lakes region pulls tropical moisture north from Isaias with additional lift coming from a shortwave trough embedded within the flow regime. Likely rainfall will be akin to warm frontal showers with amounts ranging between 0.15 to 0.25 inches overnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Isaias will likely impact the area starting Tuesday. There is a tropical storm warning in effect for the entire forecast area.

The upper level trough will steer Isaias north along the east coast early morning Tuesday. The system is expected to reach the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

The timing of the heaviest rainfall is late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening across the entire CWA. The axis of heaviest rainfall will likely be focused on the eastern counties. Particularly for Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and the NYC metro. Issues with runoff related flash flooding will be likely throughout urban environments. The current thinking is a wide swath for the potential of a 2 to 4 inch rainfall across the area with locally higher amounts of around 5 inches possible, with the eventually storm track ultimately deciding where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up.

The highest wind threat with regard to Isaias should correspond to the eastern semicircle of the storm which places central and eastern Long Island, along with eastern CT along the axis of strongest winds. The timing for this looks to be during late in the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. One positive note is the storm is expected to accelerate to the north and northeast into Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may limit the duration of impactful winds to some extent for coastal sections. The preliminary guidance is suggesting the strongest winds may get up to 45 mph sustained along the immediate coast near the center of circulation, with perhaps gusts to around 60 mph or thereabouts across southern coastal sections of New York City, Long Island, and potentially coastal Connecticut into Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. By Wednesday morning the center of circulation will be pushing into New England and the winds across eastern sections should shut off quickly.

As a cold front pushes east of the area on Wednesday a broad area of high pressure will begin to gradually settle in from the west. The high will settle over the region by Friday into Saturday. During this time frame the weather is expected to remain predominantly dry, with mainly a slight chance of a few late showers / storms. The humidity will become noticeably lower into Thursday as the drier air mass takes hold. The humidity will then begin to creep up closer to Saturday as heights build slightly and the drier air mass undergoes some modification.

A high rip current risk remains for the ocean beaches Tuesday through Tuesday night.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak cold front will remain near the region into this evening. Tropical Storm Isaias begins to approach from the southeast coast tonight and will move over the Middle Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.

W-SW winds around 10 kt to start will become SW 10-13 kt into the afternoon. A few gusts 15- 20 kt cannot be ruled out in the afternoon. Wind speeds will weaken this evening as the direction gradually becomes SE overnight.

VFR expected through this evening. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms early evening, but coverage and timing too low/uncertain to include in the TAFs. Showers become likely late tonight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR to IFR conditions developing.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gust up to 20 kt possible this afternoon. Wind direction may go S a few hours quicker than forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gust up to 20 kt possible this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gust up to 20 kt possible this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gust 15-20 kt possible this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gust 15-20 kt possible this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gust up to 20 kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR to IFR conditions. Impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias likely late morning into the evening. Conditions improving Tuesday night. Wednesday. VFR with any lingering showers ending. Thursday and Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Conditions on the ocean remain below SCA conditions for most of Monday with winds 13-15kts and gusts 17-20kts. Conditions worsen Tuesday morning with south winds increasing to 20kts and waves 4-5 ft.

Tropical storm conditions will become increasingly likely from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across all of the coastal waters based on the latest forecast track of Isaias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all forecast waters. Winds of 45-50kts will be possible with gusts up to 64kts. Conditions will then improve quickly Wednesday morning from west to east. Wave heights will briefly build to around of just over 15 ft out on the ocean waters late Tuesday afternoon, then range from 10-15 ft Tuesday evening, then subside fairly quickly into Wednesday morning.

Small craft conditions will then ensue on the ocean during the day on Wednesday due to elevated seas. As early as Wednesday night even the ocean waters should settle down to below SCA conditions for Wednesday night into Thursday with some 3-4 ft seas lingering out on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. There is the potential for more widespread heavy rainfall, especially Tuesday into at least into the first half of Tuesday night as Isaias approaches the region. Additionally, the track of Isaias will need to be monitored to narrow down potential impacts for minor to moderate river flooding. Confidence in any moderate river flooding remains low due to rainfall forecast uncertainty.

A flash flood watch remains for Tuesday through Tuesday night for NYC, Northeast NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley where guidance is lower with rain amounts for flash flood criteria. This is also closer to the heavier rain axis forecast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A coastal flood watch has been issued for Lower NY Harbor and the south shore back bays of western Long Island for the evening high tide cycle on Thursday.

A strong SE flow ahead Tropical Cyclone Isaias will potentially result in a surge of 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft across the watch area and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. This would result in widespread inundation of 1 to 2 ft with localized values up to 3 ft in the watch area. There is still uncertainty in the guidance at this time with preference toward the higher end of the PETSS and NYHOPS guidance. Should these values continue to increase as the event nears watches may need to be expanded and eventually elevated to a warning.

This is appears to be once cycle event with westerly flow developing on the backside of the system late Tuesday evening.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ005>012. Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ005>008. NY . Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for NYZ067>075-176-178. Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ067>070. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for NYZ074-075-080-178-179. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Tropical Storm Watch for NJZ002. Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JE/DJ NEAR TERM . DJ/JP SHORT TERM . DJ LONG TERM . JE AVIATION . CB/DS MARINE . JE/JM HYDROLOGY . JE/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi53 min WSW 9.9 G 15 86°F 76°F1015.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 12 mi53 min 81°F 72°F1016.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi33 min SW 12 G 16 76°F 76°F5 ft1016.8 hPa69°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi53 min WSW 20 G 24 85°F 76°F1015.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 43 mi53 min SSW 16 G 18 79°F 67°F1015.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi53 min SW 13 G 15 79°F 78°F1015.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 47 mi98 min WSW 9.9 88°F 1015 hPa66°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 47 mi53 min WSW 8.9 G 15 88°F 1015.7 hPa
PRUR1 48 mi53 min 87°F 62°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi27 minW 1010.00 miFair87°F63°F45%1015.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY11 mi29 minWSW 7 G 19 mi86°F66°F51%1016.4 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi30 minWSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair87°F62°F43%1016 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI24 mi27 minWSW 16 G 2110.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9SW10S8SW8SW7S5SW5SW7SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE6S7S8SE10SE10SE12
2 days agoS4S5S7S8S7S4--CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmCalmN5N7N66SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Little Gull Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Little Gull Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:42 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 03:45 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.50.80.20.10.30.81.31.722.22.11.81.40.90.40.30.511.62.12.52.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:05 AM EDT     -4.13 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:21 AM EDT     3.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     -3.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:30 PM EDT     3.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-2.2-3.5-4.1-3.7-2.5-0.912.63.23.12.10.5-1.1-2.5-3.4-3.4-2.5-1.10.62.33.13.12.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.