Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:20PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:02 AM EST (15:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 5:06AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 954 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog late this morning and early afternoon. Rain late this morning and early afternoon, then rain with isolated tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 954 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift to the north of all area waters by tonight. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Island, NY
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location: 41.21, -72.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 091218 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 718 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. An approaching warm front will lift to the north tonight. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. Otherwise, light rain continues to overspread the region from the south.

A few spots in Orange County have temperatures right around freezing, so some spotty freezing light rain or freezing drizzle will be possible. An SPS has been issued for Orange county.

Warm advection moderate rain will continue developing and spreading north through the morning hours and continue this afternoon, with the heaviest expected this afternoon across NYC and NE NJ and also across SE CT.

Temps on the mild side today, with highs in the 50s most places, perhaps close to 60 across eastern Long Island with the warm front approaching, upper 40s in western Orange.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Warm front should lift north tonight, with a round of moderate- heavy rain likely for much of Long Island and SE CT. Enough elevated instability present to warrant mention of thunder for the forks of Long Island this evening with warm fropa.

Winds are a tricky forecast. Could see gusts 40-45 mph across the forks and the SE CT coast this evening, but an inversion may work to prevent stronger winds aloft from reaching the sfc except in heavier precip. Will handle via shorter fused products rather than issue wind advy.

Upper dynamics shift north of the area Monday night. The warm front should also lift north as the parent low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast around or just after midnight. Deep moisture and stronger forcing for ascent shift to the north and east after midnight with the rain tapering off from southwest to northeast. PoP drops off significantly overnight, but cannot completely rule out some lingering light showers. Showers pick up in coverage again Tue afternoon as a cold front enters the area.

Rainfall amounts through Monday night look to range from about 1-1.5 inches, locally closer to 2 inches in SE CT.

Temperatures will continue on the mild side, with temps remaining steady or only falling a couple of degrees tonight, then another mild day expected on Tue, with highs from the 50s to lower 60s, before quickly falling back into the 40s north/west..

Fog potential appears low at this time. However, it bears watching with dewpoints in the lower/mid 50s moving over SSTs in the upper 40s ad lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Main impacts/forecast challenges this time frame will be post frontal precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the next system over the weekend. Much depends on placement of upper jet, and eventual evolution of the upper level trough during the mid week period.

Did not make too many changes to the long term period, Based on 00Z models. A lingering upper trough and placement of upper jet should result in a continuation of post frontal precip Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A transition from rain to snow will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as colder air advects in NW to SE. With lingering QPF of a quarter to a third of an inch around the time of transition, 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible across the area. Reasonable worst case scenario of around 6 inches is possible in spots away from the immediate coast. There is still plenty of time for change, so stay tuned.

Drier weather returns Wednesday afternoon through Friday as high pressure builds over the area. Expect Thursday to be cold with temperatures around or just above freezing.

WAA precip may arrive late Friday or Friday night from the south, but model differences in upstream trough remain, so confidence in exact forecast details such as timing and coverage of precip remains low. At this time, would generally expect wet weather Saturday (mainly rain), and possibly into Sunday although dry air advecting in from the west should result in lower rain chances Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to above normal late week and next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A warm front will lift north across the area late this morning into this afternoon.

It will be mainly IFR today with improvement to MVFR later tonight. However, with the passage of the warm front, ceilings may improve this afternoon to MVFR, or vary between IFR and MVFR.

Light E/SE winds this morning become S, ramping up late morning into the afternoon at 15-20 kt with gusts 25 to 35 kt along the coast. Isolated G40 kt possible at KISP, KBDR, KGON. Considerably lighter winds are forecast for the terminals to the north and west. Winds will gradually veer through tonight.

LLWS at all terminals through tonight.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Chance MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours. An isolated gust up to 40 kt is possible late this morning into early this afternoon.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Chance MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours. An isolated gust up to 40 kt is possible late this morning into early this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Chance MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours. An isolated gust up to 30 kt is possible late this morning into early this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Chance MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours. An isolated gust up to 30 kt is possible late this morning into early this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Chance MVFR this afternoon. Timing of wind shift and onset of gusts could vary 1-2 hours. An isolated gust 40 kt plus is possible late this morning into this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday. MVFR or lower conds in showers. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds shift to the NW with gusts 25-30kt with a cold frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening. Tuesday Night into Wednesday. MVFR or lower with rain in the evening, likely becoming IFR or lower transitioning to snow late Tuesday Night, continuing into Wednesday morning push. W-NW G20-25kt possible. Potential for light snow accumulations. Snow ends Wednesday afternoon with conditions improving to VFR. Thursday into Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Will be delaying gale warning for the ocean waters W of Fire Island til tonight, with the main push of stronger winds to the east today, and gusts in S-SW flow getting close but not quite to 35 kt except on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet this afternoon.

Winds should pick up with warm fropa, and gale warning remains in effect for all the ocean waters during this time, and SCA conds on the remaining waters.

The front passes through the area Tuesday night with marginal SCA gusts possible Wednesday into Thursday morning in a W-NW flow. Seas however will remain above 5 ft through this period, so SCAs can be expected on the ocean.

Winds diminish and seas subside quite a bit Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

There is the potential for another storm system to impact the waters at the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. A long duration precipitation event is expected from late tonight into Wednesday. The precipitation late tonight into Tuesday will be in the form of plain rain. The precipitation transitions to frozen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent precipitation of 1 to 2 inches is forecast. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding may occur on Monday afternoon and Monday night when the heaviest rain falls.

Next significant rain of at least a half an inch is expected by the weekend. Too early to ascertain hydrologic impacts.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353- 355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350.



SYNOPSIS . BC/Goodman NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . DW MARINE . BC/Goodman HYDROLOGY . BC/Goodman EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 7 mi33 min S 12 G 13 51°F 1005 hPa50°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi45 min S 7 G 8.9 49°F 49°F1021.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 12 mi57 min 53°F 45°F1021.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi57 min S 7 G 8 47°F 43°F1022.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 43 mi57 min SSE 9.9 G 13 52°F 39°F1021.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi45 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 41°F1019.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 47 mi78 min SSW 6 50°F 1023 hPa50°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 47 mi45 min S 4.1 G 7 51°F 1022.4 hPa
PRUR1 48 mi57 min 49°F 49°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi67 minSSE 123.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%1020.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY11 mi69 minS 7 mi52°F50°F93%1021.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi70 minS 75.00 miFog/Mist53°F48°F86%1021.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI24 mi67 minS 128.00 miLight Rain52°F50°F93%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE45SW7SW9SW10SW11SW7SW6SW9SW12SW9S8S11S10S11SW9SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Little Gull Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Little Gull Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:40 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.511.522.32.52.421.510.50.10.10.50.91.41.71.921.71.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:05 AM EST     2.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:41 PM EST     -3.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:01 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:38 PM EST     2.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.8-2.6-1.7-0.50.92.32.82.51.70.3-1.3-2.5-3.3-3.5-2.7-1.5-01.52.52.62.21-0.5-1.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.