Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:42PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:51 PM EDT (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 11:41AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 202 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 609 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Scattered tstms in the evening, then chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 202 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211818
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
218 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly approach through Thursday. The front
moves across and southeast of the region Thursday night. The
front will move farther southeast of the region Friday into the
weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Weak low
pressure areas and a frontal system approach early into the
middle next week.

Near term through tonight
Have decided to go with scattered wording for showers and tstms
based on latest radar and satellite obs. Still think that
showers and tstms will pop up in near the forecast area given
current CAPE and shear along with a partly sunny sky. Looks like
the best mid level lift and shear moves through this afternoon.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect into this evening. The
biggest threat for severe weather would be with wind gusts,
however large hail, although not likely, cannot be completely
ruled out, particularly in ct where the best combination of
shear and CAPE in the hail growth zone exists.

Finally, there is an isolated flash flood risk where the heaviest
storms concentrate. This will likely be near boundaries with storm
motion otherwise east around 10-15 kt.

Temperatures and heat indices should recover after a brief
cloudy period earlier this afternoon. No changes therefore to
the heat advisory.

The precipitation is expected to wind down from west to east
late this evening as the upper support exits. There could be
some patchy fog late with a residual moist environment.

Short term Thursday
The models have backed off on thunderstorm chances for the bulk of
thu, but with the cold front still on the doorstep, at least slight
chances have been retained, particularly in the afternoon. Dewpoints
are modeled to be a bit lower with more of a westerly component to
the wind. However, the models have been a bit low in general, so as
previously mentioned a more humid forecast has been issued.

There is a moderate rip current risk for thu.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper trough moves near and eventually northeast of the region
Thursday night into start of weekend. Upper level ridging moves
across for the weekend into early next week. Solution consistent
between GFS and canadian models but ECMWF model breaks off a piece
of the trough and keeps it near region as weak upper level low for
the weekend. For next week, the ridge eventually moves east of the
region with a weak trough approaching from the west.

At the surface, the cold front will be within the region to start
Thursday night and by Friday morning should be southeast of long
island. The front will continue moving southeast of long island
going into the weekend. GFS and canadian models likewise show a more
steady front movement southeast of long island while ECMWF shows a
little slower movement and closer proximity of low pressure to the
region along the front.

For weather, a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday evening but would expect thunder chances to decrease with
the more northerly flow developing behind the front and overall
instability trending downward. Showers chances linger into Friday
morning. Then, dry conditions are forecast for the much of the
weekend. Depending on how low pressure trends along the front to the
south and a frontal system approaching from the west going into
early to middle of next week, there could be a return to rain in the
forecast. Currently, it seems this scenario is more of a low end
possibility, so limited rain to slight chance, with mainly dry
conditions anticipated.

Temperatures overall forecast to be slightly below normal.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
A trough of low pressure develops this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase late this afternoon, with MVFR or ifr possible in any
thunderstorm. Thunderstorm chances diminish later this evening
and overnight. Confidence in timing, placement and coverage
remains low.

Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt
possible at the nyc terminals during the afternoon. Winds
lighten from the SW this evening and overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi37 min SSW 13 G 15 75°F 70°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 16 83°F 70°F1012.4 hPa (-1.5)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi58 min 78°F 73°F1013.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi58 min S 9.9 G 13 82°F 77°F1011.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi42 min S 14 G 16 78°F 1013.7 hPa74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 82°F 78°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi97 minS 89.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1013.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi1.9 hrsSSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW44SW3CalmS6S5SW4SW3CalmS4S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S76S8S9
G14
1 day agoS7S5SW10
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W5--33CalmNW5NW8N5NW3CalmNW3NW4NW6N8N6N654SW7
2 days agoS8S7S7S6SW7S6S4CalmCalmS4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm564W8SW7
G12
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Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:47 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.13.43.53.22.621.51.10.911.62.43.13.63.83.73.22.621.51.111.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:33 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     -2.56 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.21.60.6-0.4-1.4-2.2-2.5-2-10.11.22.12.41.91.10.1-1-2-2.5-2.4-1.6-0.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.