Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:36PM Monday April 19, 2021 5:09 PM EDT (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 325 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the waters today as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. The high moves offshore tonight into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Tuesday night, moving across the waters late Wednesday. High pressure follows for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 192047 CCA AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 447 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. An upper level trough passes through the area this afternoon and this evening. Shortwave ridging builds in for Tuesday, giving way to a low pressure system. Deepening low pressure passes just west or through the area on Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind the system, then another low may impact the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Ongoing light precipitation, which has been relegated to mostly north and west of NYC and southwestern CT, should begin to diminish in activity through this evening. GOES-16 6.19um channel depicts the mid level shortwave trough approaching the area currently. This feature will slide offshore this evening, with weak ridging and subsidence building in from the west into the overnight. With light winds and some good radiational cooling, some locally patchy fog is not out of the question overnight, especially across Long Island and coastal CT. Have left fog out of the grids, however, as it's not expected to be widespread and confidence is low. NARRE_TL and SREF all have low probs, 20-30% of <3mi, in the aforementioned areas. Low temps will be in the upper 40s across the area, with NBM temperatures used with local adjustments.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The upper ridge axis settles to the east of the area on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Deep southwesterly flow results, as a deeper trough takes shape over the Great Lakes. The day should remain mostly cloud free. West/southwest winds and a deep mixed layer will keep the region dry, gusty and warm during the day. Winds will be gusty--15-20mph by the afternoon. NBM deterministic max temperatures were again below the interquartile range for most locations, so adjusted up to near the 50th-75th percentile, which gives highs in the low 70s for the urban areas, and in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. This approach has worked well this spring for this kind of regime when the deterministic NBM temps are on the low end of the ensemble envelope. By Tuesday night, the upper trough and attendant cold front begin to push east through central PA. Cloud cover will be on the increase as the frontal system approaches, with precipitation chances increasing somewhat toward daybreak.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Two lows to look at in the extended. The first develops along a strong cold front near the Oh Valley on Tue. This low deepens as it passes thru the area on Wed. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM all take the low on basically same track thru the Hudson Valley. This track puts the area in the warm sector with chances for some convection invof the low passage. Ern areas will be much more stable in the llvls than wrn areas, which will have the best chance for tstms. Areas most at risk for tstms are NJ, all of NY outside of LI, and Fairfield county in CT. The main threat for svr is damaging winds with 40-50kt of wind already available in the low to mid lvls.

Strong caa Wed ngt. Low temps in the 30s for all areas, with perhaps a few 20s across the nwrn interior.

The cold airmass produces highs about 5-10 degrees blw normal for Thu. With h85 winds progged blw 50kt attm, did not go advy strength in the grids attm. However, winds can often overperform this time of year with deep mixing so it is something to watch.

Fair wx Fri into Sat, then low pres develops over the sern conus and tracks offshore for the 2nd half of the weekend. This would be a rainstorm. This far out, there is still some uncertainty wrt the track and intensity. Nonetheless, NBM likely pops were used for the fcst due to the current model consensus.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Weak low pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight with weak high pressure briefly building in Tuesday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Rain showers will be isolated to scattered late this afternoon into early this evening, mainly before 00Z. Brief MVFR will be possible. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Kept MVFR and any thunder out of TAFs due to low confidence. VFR otherwise expected tonight into Tuesday. There will be also a chance for some low clouds and patchy fog for eastern terminals late tonight into early Tuesday morning but did not put in TAFs at this time again with low confidence.

Winds will be S-SE near 10 kt into early this evening for most terminals. The winds become more variable in direction thereafter for tonight as they lower to near 5 kts. Winds will be increasing Tuesday to 10-15 kt with gusts up to near 20 kt developing late morning into early afternoon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments possible for any refinements to showers and MVFR timing.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night. Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late at night. Possible rain showers north and west of NYC terminals for late night. SW gusts near 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts subside at night. LLWS possible late with SW winds of 40 kt at 2kft. Wednesday. MVFR or lower possible. LLWS likely with SW winds of 45- 50 kt at 2kft. Showers with a chance of thunder. S gusts 20-25kt, becoming W to NW going into the evening. Thursday. VFR. WNW gusts 25-30kt. Friday. VFR. WNW gusts 20-25kt. Saturday. MVFR possible with a chance of rain. S-SW gusts near 15 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place. With southwesterly flow increasing by Tuesday afternoon, and a prefrontal trough approaching by late Tuesday night, occasional gusts of 20-25 kt are possible, especially over the ocean waters.

An sca will likely be needed on Wed as low pres passes n of the waters. As the low pulls away, increasing wly winds will approach gale force Wed ngt and Thu. Lingering sca conditions possible on Fri, especially on the ocean with elevated seas. All areas briefly blw sca lvls on Sat before a coastal low impacts the area Sat ngt and Sun.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMC/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . JM MARINE . JMC/DBR HYDROLOGY . JMC/DBR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi69 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 48°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi44 min S 15 G 16 53°F 1008.8 hPa36°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi57 min 60°F 1009.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi51 min 53°F 48°F1009.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi51 min S 7 G 8 59°F 50°F1010.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi39 min S 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 48°F1010.3 hPa47°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi51 min W 1.9 G 6 60°F 49°F1008.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi74 minSSW 1010.00 miFair64°F36°F34%1009.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi73 minS 1310.00 miFair57°F40°F53%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
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Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.53.13.43.53.42.92.31.81.40.90.70.91.422.42.72.82.72.321.71.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Mon -- 01:50 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:53 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.71.91.50.8-0-0.9-1.7-2.3-2.2-1.6-0.70.31.11.71.71.30.6-0.1-1-1.6-1.9-1.5-0.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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