Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:51PM Sunday September 20, 2020 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1035 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1035 Pm Edt Sat Sep 19 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain across the northeast and the mid atlantic states through the weekend, and gradually weaken early next week. Ocean waters will continue to build through early next week as tropical cyclone teddy approaches the canadian maritimes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 200559 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure remains positioned over the entire Northeast through this weekend. Ridge axis over the eastern Great Lakes shifts into New England Monday as a high pressure system settles into region early this week. Ridge deamplifies late in the week as a trough approaches New York.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. High pressure remains anchored over much of the Northeast, Mid- Atlantic, and Great Lakes region with N/NE winds providing dry and cool air into the region. Winds speeds have come down over a larger portion of the area under light to calm winds; more so than previously anticipated. Models however are insistent for the most part that the winds will attempt to come up a touch after 6-7z. This remains to be seen as overall the wind speeds have been over forecasted, say over the past 12 hours or thereabouts. As the pressure gradient continues to relax over the area expect many areas to see winds down around 5 to 8 mph, with interior sections, especially the more shelter areas completely decoupling. Overall temperatures were lowered by a degree or so across the area for this update. Did not want to get over aggressive with dropping temps too much more in case the winds stir up a bit later in the overnight.

Therefore given the clear skies, dry conditions, and diminishing winds, low temperatures tonight will drop well below average as radiational cooling will be favorable, especially in interior areas where the wind can become calm for a period of time. As a result, portions of the northern Lower Hudson Valley may see patchy or areas of frost tonight and into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories have been issued for Orange and Putnam Counties in NY. Coastal locations will remain warmer given more moisture, proximity to a still warm ocean, and more persistent winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Dry and clear conditions persist with high pressure over the area. Winds may pick up again during the morning with a mid- level shortwave approaching the region from the northwest. This shortwave may provide for a few clouds but with limited moisture, not much else will come with it.

Temperatures will continue to be about 10 degrees below average with anomalously low 1000-500mb thickness values for mid-September.

Clear skies and relatively weak winds with dry conditions will allow for another night of favorable radiational cooling on Sunday night which may once again result in some areas of frost for the Lower Hudson Valley and interior areas.

There will be a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Sunday as seas continue to build combined with the long period swell.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A 1032mb high pressure system over New England will continue the dry northeasterly flow locally for Monday. This coupled with the subsidence from an approaching upper level ridge axis will keep skies clear through the first half of the week. Though some de-amplification of the ridge occurs as Teddy the offshore tropical system nears Maine, locally this will only result in northeast winds becoming northwesterly late Tuesday. Coastal effects as a result of the storm's proximity will have to be monitored closely. Elevated seas and surf could continue into early Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the ocean beaches through Monday and may need to be extended into Tuesday.

Dry conditions continue into mid week. The aforementioned high pressure system shifts into the Appalachians with persistent northwest winds expected into Thursday. The northwest upper level flow may advect in a few cirrus clouds overhead but other than that no rain in the forecast. The first hint of slight rain chances occurs with the next long wave trough late Thursday into Friday. It will be difficult for precipitation in this environment with models showing precipitable water values between 0.70 and 1.10 inches. It is possible and falling moisture would evaporate in the dry mid level air. Timing of frontal passage varies model to model but general consensus is late Friday into Saturday.

High surf, beach erosion, and beach flooding are likely Monday into Tuesday. Refer to Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for additional details. There will be a high rip current risk through at least Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure continues to gradually build in from the northwest.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain in a N-NE flow.

Wind speeds will be mainly between 6-10 kt into daybreak, and under 5 kts at KSWF. Gusts are expected to re-develop in the morning at most terminals, around 13-14z. Gusts may be occasional at times. Any gusts should subside later in the afternoon towards 20-21z. Sustained winds will be near 10 kt for tonight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Any wind gusts late morning and afternoon may be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 6Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late tonight and Monday. VFR. NE winds decrease to mainly 5-10 kt at night, and become closer to 10-15 kt g20 kt during the daytime. Tuesday. VFR. NW winds with gusts to 20 kt. Wednesday and Thursday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. With Teddy looming off shore winds and seas remain elevated into early this week. Monday northeast winds 16-18 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue into the evening coming down below 20 kt Tuesday. Seas remain above SCA criteria at 8 to 10 feet through Tuesday and only begin to fall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. By mid day Wednesday waves relax to 3-4 feet then fall to around 2 feet through the forecast period. Winds shift out of the northwest Wednesday and remain around 10-15 kt. Late Thursday into Friday winds shift southwesterly briefly ahead of the next frontal system with west to northwest winds likely to start next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER. Northerly wind gusts of up to 20 mph, combined with low relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent will allow for the enhanced spread of any fire. A special weather statement remains in effect through the first half of this evening.

Winds on Sunday will be north to northeast with gusts up to 20 mph, and afternoon relative humidity 27 percent to 32 percent.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrological concerns are anticipated through the entire forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes expected for the ocean beachfront Sunday into Monday . Numerous tidal cycles of minor coastal flooding expected for the south shore bays of W LI, Lower NY/NJ harbor, SW CT, and S Westchester through Sunday, and possibly through early next week.

Astronomical tides continue to run high associated with a recent new moon, with a persistent NNE flow through Monday and tidal piling allowing for 1/2 to 1 1/2 ft of surge.

Primary concern is the combination of elevated water levels and incoming energetic swells from Teddy building to our shores tonight into Monday. This is expected to develop high surf of 8-12 ft Sunday into Monday, which combined with elevated water levels during the times of high tide will likely result in significant and widespread erosion and damage to dune structures. In addition, scattered overwashes are likely, resulting in minor to moderate flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective dunes. This is depicted in the NOAA/USGS Coastal Change Forecast Viewer, which is showing potential for an erosion and overwash event close to what was seen the October 10th 2019 Nor'easter and possibly during Hurricane Jose swell event.

In terms of the coastal flood threat, the widespread minor coastal flooding can be expected across the South Shore Bays of Nassau and Queens as well as lower NY/NJ Harbor and SW CT as well as S Westchester. Isolated minor coastal flooding is expected for shorelines of Northern Long Island for Sunday morning high tides. Brief and localized minor flooding likely for the night time high tides tonight and Sun Night.

A similar coastal flood threat is likely to at least continue into the Monday and Tuesday daytime high tidal cycles as Hurricane Teddy makes it closest approach, with potential for moderate coastal flood impacts along vulnerable Great South Bay and areas as energetic swells from Teddy restrict tidal drainage.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ009. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ071. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-081-178- 179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ074-075-178-179. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/MW NEAR TERM . JE/MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JE/JM MARINE . DJ/MW FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi34 min NNE 12 G 15 50°F 1029 hPa34°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi62 min NNE 4.1 G 8.9 49°F 67°F1029.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi56 min 56°F 68°F1029 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi56 min E 2.9 G 7 49°F 67°F1029.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi34 min NE 18 G 21 60°F 68°F1028.7 hPa41°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi62 min N 4.1 G 6 49°F 69°F1029.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi49 minN 410.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1029.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi48 minN 810.00 miFair44°F34°F68%1029.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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N7NE7N8N7CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN7N6----N8--NE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SW4SW8SW9SW8--5SW5S4SW3--Calm--Calm--NW4N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:23 PM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.24.44.13.22.11.10.3-00.31.32.53.74.554.94.131.80.7-0-0.20.41.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:01 AM EDT     -3.86 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     3.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:29 PM EDT     -4.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:35 PM EDT     3.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.6-0-1.9-3.3-3.9-3.4-2-0.21.63.13.83.42.20.6-1.2-2.9-4-3.9-2.9-1.30.52.23.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.