Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niantic, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
For this update, temperatures vary significantly across the area with readings around 60 in the NYC metro, and the upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. Dew points have also come up into the 30s and even 40 in spots along the coast. As winds drop off and take on a more northerly flow they will drop. Still have a frost advisory for eastern LI and much of coastal CT, but these areas are bit warmer than expected at this time. However, there should still be good period of radiational cooling so no changes planned at this time.

A weak pressure gradient gets established through tonight with high pressure settling to the south down towards the Lower Mid Atlantic coast. BUFKIT soundings indicate a dry column throughout. Light to calm winds should result in a good degree of radiational cooling in the locations that aren't as urban.
Used a MAV/MET blend for temperatures. With dew points slightly higher than the previous night and with a much better radiational cooling set up look for widespread middle and upper 30s outside of the metro. Some of the interior valley locations could very well get to freezing. Frost advisories will continue for tonight and early Fri AM for zones that have begun their growing season. In these locations there should be a good amount of middle 30s with calm winds allowing for frost formation.

With the high getting offshore on Friday the return flow begins to get established quickly. Towards the early afternoon coastal locations will notice a ramp up with a wind out of the south. Into lower Queens / Brooklyn / So. Nassau especially by late in the afternoon some winds could gust up to 30 mph as a coastal near sfc Ambrose type jet attempts to get going. There will also be a distinct west to east temperature line of demarcation during the afternoon with cooler 50s for eastern coastal sections, with the western Hudson Valley and NE NJ flirting with or getting to 70. Some mid and upper level clouds will push in during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Friday night will feature more in the way of clouds along with more of an advective set up. Temperatures will be much milder / warmer than the past few nights. Clouds and a southerly wind, with more of a breeze closer to the immediate coast will result in near steady or slowly rising temperatures. Locations further inland where a wind off the colder ocean will be absent are going to likely rise with regard to temperatures. Some middle and upper 50s are likely across western areas, and further east closer to 50 or in the lower 50s.
Dew point readings for western portions of the area are likely to get into the lower 50s by Saturday morning.

On Saturday the region will be in a strong synoptic SW flow regime.
Thicknesses (1000-500mb) will get towards 564 dm. The big question is how much of a westerly dominant component will there be to the winds. Just a slight 20 degree variance will make all the difference in the world for the more eastern and immediate coastal sections.
For now due to model agreement have gone a bit above guidance. NBM tends to not be very useful this time of year with the cold ocean and with this type of wind set up. Looking for temperatures to warm everywhere quickly during the morning. By the early afternoon temperatures will be well into the 70s and some lower 80s west. May be a bit too cool for eastern most locations, but this can be fine tuned over the next 24 hours and new guidance comes in. In any event Saturday will be by far the warmest day in terms of widespread warmth. Middle 80s for max temps looks like a good bet across western and southwestern portions of the area. It is not completely out of the question that record max temperatures could be approaching for some of the climate stations. However, there is a bit of uncertainty regarding mid level cloud cover which could impact the temperature verification by a few degrees. In any event it will be quite warm. At this point Saturday looks primarily dry as the frontal system off to the west appears to undergo some weakening and runs into strong mid and upper level ridging with showers likely not progressing far enough to the east to reach the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Anomalously strong ridging across the southeastern US will become a bit suppressed Saturday night. A closed low will also swing across southeast Canada. This will allow a cold front to sag south of the area Saturday night. There is little to no lift with the front as it comes through, but will leave in a slight chance PoP for the first half of the night. High pressure then builds over New England through Sunday night. The main weather change behind the front will be a significant drop in temperatures and dew points for Sunday compared to Saturday. Temperatures however will still run above normal, but only be in the lower to middle 60s compared to the 70s and 80s that are forecast on Saturday.

Ridging aloft and at the surface Sunday night will push offshore on Monday. This will allow a warm front to lift to the north through Monday night, which will be quickly followed by a cold front passage on Tuesday. The retreating high pressure on Monday will set up a SE flow which will keep temperatures cooler and largely in the upper 50s to low 60s. Probabilities for showers are initially low Monday night, but increase once the warm front lifts across the area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The shower chances coincide with a bit better forcing as a middle and upper level trough moves across the region. The actual cold front will follow Tuesday afternoon and evening. The cold front should pass through dry as heights aloft start rising and any larger scale support moves well NE of the area. Temperatures on Tuesday push back above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most spots except portions of NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley where low 70s are possible.

Ridging returns aloft and at the surface for Wednesday. The pattern remains progressive with potential of another frontal system moving across the area at some point Thursday or Thursday night. Modeling differs on the amplitude of the next shortwave and associated lift and moisture return. The model consensus is currently only depicting a 20 percent chance for showers late Thursday, which seems reasonable at this time range. Temperature should remain above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A ridge of high pressure builds across the area tonight and then offshore on Friday. A warm front approaches from the SW Friday evening.

VFR through the TAF period.

With high pressure building over the region, winds have become light and variable at most of the area terminals. Expect these light winds through the early morning hours. SSW winds ramp up Friday morning, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gust to around 25 kt. Some of the coastal terminals right along the water, KJFK, KBDR, and KGON may see less gustiness. Most of the wind gusts end around 00z-02z Saturday. Also, a strong low level jet moves over the region around 00z Saturday. Will include a period of SW LLWS with wind speeds 45-50kt at 2kft.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional at KJFK Friday afternoon, but with sustained winds around 20kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers aft 18Z. SW winds gusting to around 30kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20kt possible.

Monday: VFR early, then sub VFR late day and at night with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure nearby and a light pressure gradient sub advisory conditions prevail into Friday morning. However, as the high gets offshore the winds increase out of the south into Friday afternoon.
Thus, small craft conditions are expected to develop, mainly for the western near shore waters and also a portion of the western ocean waters as an Ambrose jet attempts to get going with gusts up to 25 kt, potentially up to 30 kt at the shoreline for the southwestern most nearshore waters. There will likely be a period during Friday night where winds across the waters will be closer to 20 kt and more marginal in terms of small craft criteria due to colder waters.
During Friday evening seas get closer to 5 ft with small craft seas expected to last out on the ocean through the day Saturday. Small craft winds around 25 kt at times are expected for all waters during Saturday.

S swells will likely continue Saturday night leading to SCA seas on the ocean. The swells subside Sunday morning, but some lingering 5 ft seas are possible, especially east of Moriches Inlet. Conditions will otherwise remain below SCA levels Saturday night through Tuesday with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
For Friday, it is likely that there will be no headlines or products with marginal fire spread conditions. Conditions will be marginal for the late morning and early afternoon on Friday.
Just as the winds pick up RH levels will attempt to rise some for most of the area with a southerly wind during the afternoon and evening. Any window for potential fire spread appears to be short.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ010>012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331- 332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.