Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Haven, CT

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Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:21PM Saturday July 20, 2019 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 8:58AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 403 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 403 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Region will reside between high pressure over the western atlantic and a cold front dropping south across eastern canada. The cold front will move across the region late Sunday afternoon into the evening. A wave of low pressure moves along the front Monday and Monday night as it slowly pushes through the local area. High pressure then returns for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Haven, CT
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location: 41.24, -72.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 202107 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
507 pm edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
Region will reside between high pressure over the western atlantic
and a cold front dropping south across eastern canada. The cold
front will move across the region late Sunday afternoon into
the evening. A wave of low pressure moves along the front
Monday and Monday night as it slowly pushes through the local
area. High pressure then returns for the remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High heat and humidity will remain the focus into this evening
with much of the region reporting heat indices 100 to 105.

Daytime heating has allowed for some mixing of slightly drier
air into the low levels. There had been values in excess of 100
with dew points in the upper 70s.

Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies
with broad upper ridging across the southern half of the country
merging with the subtropical high over the western atlantic.

Anomalously warm heights aloft, deep westerly flow, and high
boundary layer moisture (high humidity) will result in dangerous
heat indices through early this evening. Even overnight, the
urban corridor and coastal sections will see heat indices in the
mid 80s to around 90. While there will be some relief overnight,
it will remain a hazard for living premises that are not
ventilated well or do not have ac.

An isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out across the interior.

However, strong capping and lack of forcing makes this
unlikely.

Lows will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s by daybreak. This
almost 15 degrees above normal.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at atlantic ocean
beaches through this evening.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Upper low descending south and east from hudson bay will send
height falls across eastern canada as well as cold front across
the great lakes toward the region. Even so, a deep-layered
westerly flow will result in another day of high heat and
humidity with heat indices once again in the 105-110 range.

There are a few wildcards in play that could limit the heat
somewhat. This includes a more westerly flow with the potential
for some drier air aloft mixing down to the surface. It may be
just enough to keep values lower than Saturday. Additionally,
instability clouds ahead of the approaching cold front and
convective debris form upstream may filter into the region in
the afternoon.

Preference at this time was to go on the warmer side of the
guidance. Even if some drier air is realized in the low levels,
this may in fact allow the airmass to heat up further. Much of
the area will see highs in the lower to mid 90s, with readings
near 100 in the urban corridor of NE nj.

Cold front and pre-frontal trough will move into the area late
afternoon early evening. While the airmass ahead of it is
clearly hot and unstable, it may be too warm aloft with capping
and not enough forcing to break it. Wind shear is also weak and
not favorable for organized convection. Thus, there are only low
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Cold front moves through in the evening with any showers
pushing to the south. Drier and cooler air will gradually
filter in overnight into Monday morning.

For Sunday at the atlantic ocean beaches, there will be a low
rip current risk.

Long term Monday through Saturday
The period starts with a frontal boundary near the local area. An
upper level trough digging through the great lakes and ohio valley
mon Mon night will spawn a sfc low on this boundary in the ohio
valley Sun night and tracking it eastward Mon and through the local
area Mon night. The location of the front and amount of cloud cover
Monday morning will be key in determining the potential for severe
weather as well as high temps. The oppressive heat will be a thing
of the past by Monday, with highs mostly back in the 80s, although
the humidity will remain. SPC has much of the tri state in a
marginal risk, but this may even be too high. Shear looks to be
high, but instability could be mainly south of the area limiting the
potential for severe weather. Have maintained chc tstms in the
forecast for the entire area, but this too could be overdone and am
not including any enhanced wording at this time.

Will need to monitor the track of the low, with indications of
1 2 to an inch of rainfall falling on the north side of the low
from the combination of frontogenesis and an approaching
entrance region of an upper jet enhancing lift. Storm total
rainfall amounts may range from 3 4 of an inch to 2 inches.

Highest amounts are currently N and W of nyc, but a slight shift
to the SE would bring the highest amounts right over the most
flood prone areas (ne nj and nyc).

The front sags back to the south on Tue with pcpn ending. The
upper trough will linger through the middle of the week and
could trigger an isold shower Wed aftn as a shortwave moves
through although it will be battling subsidence from
strengthening ridging. Heights will rise through the remainder
of the forecast period, with dry weather and gradually
increasing high temps.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Terminals will be situated between a frontal boundary across
the great lakes and high pressure over the western atlantic. This
will generally keep the areaVFR and under a sw-w flow this weekend.

W to SW winds 10-15kt with gusts 16-19kt this aftn, bcmg
lighter and veering more westerly after dark.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday through Tuesday Chance of showers and tstms starting
late Sunday afternoon and continuing through the rest of the
forecast period, with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Wednesday through Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected into Sunday with a prevailing
w-sw flow. Gusts on the ocean waters will approach 20 kt nearshore,
mainly during the afternoon hours. A cold front moves through
late Sunday afternoon into early evening with the potential for
scattered convection. A northerly flow of 5 to 10 kt develops
in wake of the front.

Seas Mon night Tue appeared to be too high based on the scenario so
have knocked them down around a foot. Thus, have sub-advsy conds
through the remainder of the period with a relatively weak flow.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through the
weekend. However, some brief heavy rain will be possible with
any thunderstorms.

Generally between 1-2 inches of average basin rainfall is expected
mon into tue, with the highest amounts N and W of nyc, however this
will depend on the exact track of a wave of low pressure riding
along a frontal boundary. At this time, think urban and small stream
flooding would be most likely, however if the axis of heaviest
rainfall shifts slightly se, the threat for flash flooding will
increase.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for nyz067>075-
078>081-176>179.

Nj... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for njz002-004-
006-103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Feb dw
near term... Dw
short term... Dw
long term... 24
aviation... Jc
marine... 24 dw
hydrology... 24 dw
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi48 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 1007.2 hPa
44069 39 mi60 min SW 14 G 18 83°F 83°F77°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 42 mi75 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 86°F 1 ft74°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 43 mi35 min WSW 8 G 8.9 80°F 1006.2 hPa73°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 43 mi42 min SW 7 G 11 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT3 mi37 minSSW 410.00 miFair92°F77°F62%1007.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi38 minWSW 710.00 miFair94°F75°F54%1007.5 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi37 minSW 710.00 miFair94°F75°F54%1007 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT21 mi39 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds91°F77°F64%1009.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi35 minVar 510.00 miFair93°F77°F59%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmS4SW4SW5SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW4W3SW7S6S7SW9
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1 day agoNE5NE6NE6NE3CalmN3N4NW3N4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmS5W5S5SW8SW6S7S7S7S8S5
2 days agoW6N5SW5SW3S3SE3CalmCalmS6CalmSW4S4CalmE3CalmE3SE5SE4E5E8NE7NE8NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for New Haven Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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New Haven Harbor entrance
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Sat -- 01:49 AM EDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.46.36.664.83.31.90.80.30.71.73.24.65.76.36.15.23.92.51.50.80.91.83.1

Tide / Current Tables for Money Island, Connecticut
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Money Island
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Sat -- 01:46 AM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.95.75.95.44.22.91.60.60.30.71.734.25.25.75.54.63.42.21.20.70.91.82.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.