Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Haven, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1.) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in affect until 4 PM today for western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties. Forecast snow totals in these areas are between 2 and 4 inches. Other ares in the Lower Hudson Valley, western CT and northeast NJ will likely see between 1 and 2 inches. Elsewhere less than half an inch is expected.

2.) A coastal low will likely bring more light snow accumulation to the area on Sunday. The highest confidence in snow continues to be for the eastern half of the area, with more uncertainty for western locations. Latest forecast has 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island with an inch or lower for other locations.

3.) Cold weather is expected Monday through Friday with the coldest period Monday night through Tuesday night, with sub freezing highs Tuesday. No record cold expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Low pressure is moving through the Great Lakes and warm advection is underway in our area. The first batch of snow is currently just west of the area and should move into the Lower Hudson Valley shortly. This seems to be associated with the aforementioned warm advection and an upper level shortwave.
Later today, another area of precipitation approaches from the west. This looks to be associated more with a cold front. This front does not appear to be too strong, but there is enough moisture and lift to bring an additional couple of tenths of liquid to the area.

Anything that falls today north and west of NYC will likely fall as all snow. Other areas could see brief snow before a changeover to a mix or all plain rain. With temperatures already running warmer than forecast, there is low confidence in any snow accumulation for NYC, western LI and coastal CT.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A shortwave embedded in the larger upper level trough over the eastern US will lift towards the area on Sunday. This will aid in surface low pressure development near the southeast US coast.
Track variability continues to lessen with the latest 00z guidance. Confidence is increasing in a light snowfall accumulation for eastern LI and CT, but uncertainty remains farther west. AI guidance and some deterministic guidance seems to be trying to meet in the middle the last few runs. Last few runs of the AIGFS and EC-AIFS have trended just slightly farther southeast with the low center and lower with QPF. Latest deterministic GFS and NAM have trended slightly closer to the coast.

Confidence is high enough at this time to forecast 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island and an inch or lower elsewhere. However, there is some concern now with surface temperatures and how well snow will actually be able to accumulate in some of those eastern areas. This trend will have to be monitored, but for now have kept forecast at likely snow with chance/slight chance rain. It could be a situation where snow has a hard time sticking at first with light intensity.
Lift in the DGZ looks to be stronger Sunday afternoon which would help increase snowfall intensity.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with, temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as Canadian cold air moves into the region behind a cold frontal passage Monday night. Temperatures during this period will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Despite the anomalously cold air no records are expected to be set. And with windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, wind chill values will remain higher than cold weather advisory criteria. For Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees below normal. Another shot of cold air moves in for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures both days remaining right around or below the freezing mark. There will be minimal chances of light snow and/or light rain Thursday into Friday as weak low pressure systems pass near the region.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A frontal system will move across the terminals today. Low pressure passes south and east of the region on Sunday.

VFR initially at all the TAF sites with snow moving into KSWF soon after 15Z with IFR to LIFR. Conditions will likely remain VFR until 17z-21z when a period of a snow mixed with rain and MVFR conditions move through NYC terminals and then Long Island and southern CT terminals 18-22z. Snow may be more prominent at KBDR and IFR will be possible. NW of NYC, expect a slightly longer period of IFR 15z til 19z where there is a better chance of all snow. Behind the frontal boundary, expected a return to VFR conditions from late afternoon through much of tonight. Low pressure will then develop and pass well southeast of the area terminals. There remains some uncertainty to the exact track of this low. For now, expect some MVFR cigs with a chance of snow after 12z Sunday.

SSW winds mainly under 10 kt early this morning will increase a bit after day break and remain around 10-13 kt into the afternoon. Winds veer to the SW this evening as speeds gradually diminish overnight.

Snow Accumulations:

SWF: 2-4 inches HPN/EWR/TEB: Around an inch or less JFK/LGA/BDR: Little to no accumulation

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for potential -SN or -RASN as well as for flight categories through this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow, mainly late morning into the evening with highest chance east of NYC metro terminals.

Monday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W to SW winds 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters due to elevated seas. Late tonight the Advisory comes down for the western ocean zone but it has been extended for the central and eastern ocean zones through Sunday.

There will only be a brief lull Sunday night before seas and winds start to increase on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected much of next week for the ocean waters and Monday and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.