Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
New London, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:24PM Friday July 10, 2020 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 303 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. SE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 303 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm fay will move northward along the mid atlantic coast and make landfall near new york city tonight. Fay will track north into the hudson valley Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New London, CT
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location: 41.26, -72.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 101834 CCA AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will move northward along the Mid Atlantic coast today before making landfall near New York City tonight and continuing north into the Hudson Valley by Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Tropical Storm Fay continues to track slowly towards the area this aftn. Fay will make landfall tonight in the New York City area and continue north into the Hudson Valley by early Saturday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and forecast details for Tropical Storm Fay.

No changes to winds have been made since the 15Z update. Next wind update will be with the 21Z Hurricane Center advy.

Rain will continue to impact the area this aftn and eve, with bands rotating in from the ocean. With precipitable water values increasing to 2-2.5 inches and tall skinny CAPE, flash flooding will be possible into this evening as the heaviest rain moves across the area. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, and WPC continues to include the entire forecast area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

In addition to the flash flood potential, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with a slight risk along the immediate coastline. Increasing low level shear as Fay approaches will lead to the potential for damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes in any thunderstorms that are able to develop. The greatest threat may be in the 00-03Z time period invof the sfc low as it passes thru the area.

In terms of winds, east to southeast flow will increase across the area through this eve. Gusts up to around 50 mph possible. The strongest gusts are expected across NYC, wrn Long Island, and wrn coastal Connecticut. Winds will then diminish overnight as Fay moves off to the north.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches thru tngt.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Despite the exit of Fay, a moist airmass will remain in place and allow for destabilization during the day. At the same time, an upr trof will approach from the w. As cin erodes, tstm initiation over the cwa is likely. The 12Z NAM indicated around 3000 CAPE in the aftn and eve. The main limiting factor is whether any earlier convection works over the atmosphere sufficiently. The primary svr threats will be damaging winds and hail. Severe wording and damaging winds have been included in the fcst for wrn areas to highlight the threat.

Any activity is modeled to diminish in the overnight period as dry air sweeps in at the mid lvls.

The NBM was used for temps. Heat indices will be close to 95 for much of the area. An advy may be needed based on the 2 day criteria Sat and Sun.

A high risk of rip currents continues for Atlantic Ocean beaches on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The mean trough axis will remain fairly stationary near the region through early next week as it is reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through Great Lakes into New England. Decent agreement that by mid week this trough axis finally lifts ne of the area, with heat ridging building into the area for late week into the weekend.

This setup will have a deep S/SW flow across the region through Tuesday, with a series of weak troughs moving through the region. This will spell a very warm and humid pattern with potential for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity as shortwave energy rotates through with the surface troughs. Timing/location/coverage/intensity of threat will be determined by timing of shortwaves, which will have to be refined at shorter lead time.

General agreement with the mean trough axis lifting northeast of the region Wed, with building heights. If this plays out, deep WSW flow will advect in the building heat across the central US, with the hottest airmass of the season for late week into the weekend. With the region lying on northern periphery of this ridge and active westerlies across US/Canada border, and potentially moderate to high instability to work with, an occasional MCS or organized convective threat rolling through the area is not out of the question during this period.

The high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. ***TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING***

High impact event as Tropical Storm Fay tracks across or near the region. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track information.

Tropical storm conditions expected for the NYC metros after about 20Z-21Z, with IFR in heavy rain and E winds 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt. These winds could be more squally in nature as opposed to steady-state. Conds spread N to the remaining terminals into this evening, with shifting winds as the center of the tropical storm passes nearby.

Conds improving and winds diminishing overnight.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

KLGA TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

KEWR TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

KTEB TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

KHPN TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

KISP TAF Comments: Strongest winds likely to be squally in nature with the heavier rain bands. AMD likely to address changes in storm track and intensity.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday. MVFR or lower cond likely in SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible. Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE. Tropical storm conditions are expected into tngt, before improving early Sat. Waves were increased for all waters for the rest of today and tngt. The ocean is expected to come up to 10-12 ft with the Sound up 5-6 ft attm. Seas may remain abv sca lvls on the ocean into the middle of next week despite the exit of Fay. On the protected waters, winds and waves look to remain blw sca lvls Sat thru the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts associated with Tropical Storm Fay will range from 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms or heavier rain bands. Flash flooding is possible, with smaller streams and rivers and urban, low lying poor drainage areas most vulnerable.

Additional thunderstorms Saturday afternoon could result in localized heavy rainfall and associated minor flooding of low lying areas. Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected through Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion, particularly during the times of high tide this afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Localized dune erosion is possible, but threat for washovers is low.

In terms of coastal flooding, there is a low potential for minor coastal flood impacts from combined surge and wave set-up. This will ultimately be dependent on track and intensity of the approaching low. Generally around 2ft of surge is needed to reach minor flood thresholds, which is currently not shown in any extratropical guidance, but a potential SE jet of 20-30kt and long period se swells could result in some localized minor flood impacts for vulnerable coastal locales of LI, Jamaica Bay and lower NY/NJ harbor for the Fri Night high tidal cycle.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ009>012. NY . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi55 min ESE 6 G 12 75°F 67°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi55 min 72°F 66°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi183 min E 16 G 19 74°F1014.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 42 mi55 min E 8 G 13 76°F 74°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi55 min SSE 9.9 G 13 77°F 72°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi55 min ESE 9.9 G 15 76°F 66°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi118 min SE 4.1 80°F 1016 hPa74°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi55 min S 5.1 G 8.9 80°F
PRUR1 49 mi55 min 77°F 72°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT6 mi47 minE 1310.00 miA Few Clouds75°F72°F90%1013.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi49 minE 8 mi74°F71°F91%1013.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI18 mi50 minE 910.00 miOvercast80°F71°F74%1014.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi48 minE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S8S8S5CalmCalmE3CalmSE3E5E4NE4NE4NE5E6NE6E6E7E12E13E13E9E13
1 day agoSW11S8S5S4S5SW4S4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW3S3S5SW7S7S7S6S4S8
2 days agoSE8SE8E9E7E8E8E8E11E5SE5SE4S4S5S5S7S7S8S5S5S6S7S5SW7S9

Tide / Current Tables for Little Gull Island, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EDT     2.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     -2.79 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     2.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:16 PM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.21.70.8-0.4-1.6-2.5-2.8-2.3-1.3-0.11.12.12.42.11.40.4-0.8-1.9-2.5-2.3-1.6-0.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.