Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nantucket, MA
December 11, 2023 1:30 AM EST (06:30 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM Sunset 4:12PM Moonrise 6:36AM Moonset 3:53PM
ANZ255 Coastal Waters Extending Out To 25 Nm South Of Marthas Vineyard And Nantucket- 101 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.storm warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt, becoming W 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night through Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
.storm warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt, becoming W 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night through Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 101 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A powerful low pres will move across the waters overnight and Mon bringing a period of storm force gusts and very rough seas. Conditions gradually improve on Tues as another high pres builds S of the waters. A cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday into Friday.
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A powerful low pres will move across the waters overnight and Mon bringing a period of storm force gusts and very rough seas. Conditions gradually improve on Tues as another high pres builds S of the waters. A cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday into Friday.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBOX 110357 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1057 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Multifaceted storm with heavy rain leading to flash flooding and potentially damaging wind gusts will impact southern New England through Monday morning. Behind the departing system, the week ahead looks dry, cooling down mid week before warming up once again towards next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Winds were starting to increase late this evening, but still have not reached really unusual levels for this time of year.
00Z upper air soundings from OKX and ALB showed shallow surface-based inversions. These inversions would need to be overcome to really get the winds from the low level jet down to the ground.
Rainfall so far has not been too bad in the grand scheme of things. However, we are just starting to get into the period where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Will need to monitor the hydrologic conditions closely overnight.
Overall forecast continues with minimal changes this evening to reflect observed trends.
7:25 PM update...
No major changes with this forecast update, as previous forecast remains on track. True warm sector air across SNE with 60-65 temps at 7 pm across RI and southeast MA! Peak wind gust last hour, 34 kt/39 mph at ACK. Strongest winds overnight occur roughly in the 08z-14z window from west to east, as strengthening low level jet traverses the region and is aided by strong pressure falls/isallobaric acceleration. Brief break in rain intensity next few hours before next band of heavy rain currently across eastern PA and NJ arrives here in SNE later this evening. As of 7 pm, all rivers and streams remain well below action stage along with FLASH not concerning. Therefore flood concerns will hold off until midnight and thereafter, especially into Monday morning. Previous discussion below.
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Rain associated with this evening's much anticipated event has begun to overspread southern New England with showers blossoming across the entirety of the region. While generally light, we have seen a few tenths of QPF over the last hour at sites across central Connecticut, such as Willimantic.
Low pressure continues to push into southern New England this evening as mid level trough tilts negative, amplifying pressure falls as well and the low level jet, which at 925mb will reach peak strength of 80-90kt early Monday morning.
Overall, anticipated hazards remain consistent with previous updates with the low level jet mixing potent gusts to the surface across southeast MA, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. Gusts will build towards 40kt by the midnight hour, growing in strength as the low closes in on southern New England by 12Z, at which time peak gusts near 55kt will be experienced across the Cape and Islands. After 12Z, the cold front that sweeps the low into the Gulf of Maine will cause an abrupt wind shift from the south to the northwest. With the jet offshore, will see winds diminish by half behind the front, to 25-35kt between 09-15Z.
While not diminishing the damaging wind threat for coastal southern New England, we wish to highlight that excessive rainfall leading to rapid small river and stream rises as well as urban, poor drainage, and flash flooding is likely overnight as rain becomes more intense after sunset this evening. This system will feed off of a stream of moisture advecting from the Gulf of Mexico, causing PWATs to rise to 1.5" plus (very high by December standards), combined with southerly, parallel to the approaching front, flow some four to five standard deviations of normal, which will amplify warm rain processes. Additionally, the freezing level is some ten to twelve thousand feet, indicating that this tropically infuses system will pack a punch across southern New England, even though it will lack significant convective elements with little to no instability present. Several pieces of guidance show the possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit, overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.
The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift, with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HRRR ensemble consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5- 7" across the aforementioned region.
While it may seem insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of 10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased potential for flash flooding. Given much of this precipitation will fall overnight and to start the morning commute, motorists are urged to heed extreme caution when encountering flooded roadways as hazards may be difficult or impossible to see. Turn around, don't drown!
Aforementioned cold frontal passage will begin to infiltrate far western southern New England around 09Z which will allow for a transition to snow across the high terrain as temperatures drop some 20F behind the front. Accumulation of snow will be difficult outside of the high terrain given very warm antecedent conditions, a very saturated ground, and borderline temps in the mid 30s, thus, again relied heavily on positive snow depth change forecasts rather than 10:1 or Kuchera snow accumulations to derive our forecast. Overall, 1-4" is forecast for areas of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden county above 800ft, with minor accumulations possible between 600-800ft. Rain will likely transition to snow across the higher terrain of Worcester County for a very brief period between 12-15Z, but will have trouble accumulating; again, for the above reasons. By 15Z, precip will begin to wrap up everywhere with clearing beginning from southwest to northeast.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
It will be a tale of two forecasts on Monday as cold front pushes offshore between 14-16Z, allowing for a much colder, drier airmass to infiltrate southern New England. Fortunately, temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon accompanied by a drying, blustery NW wind will preclude a hard freeze. Sunshine looks to become widespread by the lunch hour/early afternoon.
Will note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding wind gusts tomorrow afternoon as guidance is split into two campaigns about the strength of the low level jet. The GFS and NBM are amped up on the potential for a 40-45kt jet maintaining position over western MA tomorrow afternoon, with the NAM, ECWMF, and CMC highlighting a weaker jet around 30kt.
Thus, while it is possible that gusts of 40kt+ mix to the surface across the Berkshires on downsloping NW CAA, which would reach wind advisory criteria, confidence is too low to issue a headline at this time.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Points: - Mainly dry weather expected - Below normal temps give way to another warmup by next weekend
Upper level pattern should feature a broad trough over much of eastern US through midweek, but with lack of downstream blocking, pattern remains progressive and trough will exit to Maritimes. This will allow for a pattern change later in week as upper ridge takes hold and brings yet another warmup into next weekend. This pattern also favors dry weather overall.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z update: high confidence in trends, slightly lower on exact timing of details. Strong frontal passage 07z-13z roughly from west to east, with wind shift from SSW to west. Periods of heavy rain in IFR/LIFR along with strong low level wind shear. No change to TAFs as previous forecast remains on track. Earlier discussion below.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Light rain gradually overspreads region this afternoon as conditions lower to MVFR/IFR. Steadier and heaver rain arrives this evening and continues overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR.
Should see rapid improvement to VFR as rain ends 15-18Z Mon but with areas of MVFR ceilings lingering near the higher elevations.
Strong low level jet of 80kt passing through SE New England will result in significant LLWS, mainly near coast, starting late this afternoon and continuing through late tonight.
S winds increase through evening with peak gusts 40-60kt overnight, strongest near Cape Cod and Islands, then winds shift to W/NW overnight but still remain gusty through day on Monday.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Timing of lowering ceilings may be too fast through this evening. Higher confidence on winds and LLWS.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Dangerous storm for mariners expected to impact the waters mainly tonight into Monday. Storm Watches remain in effect for all waters except Boston Harbor where a Gale Warning is in place. Rain will continue across the waters overnight and will be heavy at times, reducing visibility. There is even a low risk (10-20%) for thunderstorms, especially across the southern coastal waters.
An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters. Seas gradually diminish through the day Monday, but will still be rough on the waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises, as well as poor drainage and urban flooding, is elevated from tonight into Monday. Most locations within interior southern New England should see 2-4 inches of rainfall. Farther SE, rainfall totals should be 2 inches or less, mainly due to the duration of rainfall. The risk for 5"+ of rain has shifted a bit southeast into central/eastern Connecticut and Central Massachusetts, and has been highlighted by a Moderate Excessive Rainfall outlook.
Rainfall of this magnitude during this time of year, where the ground may be partially frozen or debris may be clogging storm drains, only magnifies the runoff and lesses the time before rises on smaller stream and creeks.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Narragansett Bay and south coast
Latest guidance suggests the peak surge for Providence will be near the time of high tide. There is still some uncertainty with exact timing and it could end up a few hours earlier or later depending on the timing of the cold front and wind shift.
However, our confidence is high that peak surge will reach up to 3 ft at Providence and 1.5 to 2.5 ft elsewhere along the RI and MA south coast. We think the ETSS and ESTOFS surge guidance is underdone and we leaned toward PETSS 90th percentile given the strong southerly LLJ and 24 hr pressure falls of 24-26 mb, which will enhance the surge. The highest confidence for minor flooding will be along Narragansett Bay due to funneling/channeling up the Bay with southerly flow. The risk for moderate flooding is rather low so we converted the coastal flood watch to an advisory. We would need a 4+ ft surge to reach moderate flooding and this appears unlikely at this time.
The flood threat is lower outside of Narragansett Bay where surge will be less. Worst case scenario would be very minor flooding or splashover along the RI south coast west of Narragansett Bay as well as Buzzards Bay and the south coast of Cape Cod.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-013-015>018.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for MAZ020.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ001>005.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ006-007.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for RIZ002- 004>007.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ230.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251-254.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ236.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1057 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Multifaceted storm with heavy rain leading to flash flooding and potentially damaging wind gusts will impact southern New England through Monday morning. Behind the departing system, the week ahead looks dry, cooling down mid week before warming up once again towards next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Winds were starting to increase late this evening, but still have not reached really unusual levels for this time of year.
00Z upper air soundings from OKX and ALB showed shallow surface-based inversions. These inversions would need to be overcome to really get the winds from the low level jet down to the ground.
Rainfall so far has not been too bad in the grand scheme of things. However, we are just starting to get into the period where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Will need to monitor the hydrologic conditions closely overnight.
Overall forecast continues with minimal changes this evening to reflect observed trends.
7:25 PM update...
No major changes with this forecast update, as previous forecast remains on track. True warm sector air across SNE with 60-65 temps at 7 pm across RI and southeast MA! Peak wind gust last hour, 34 kt/39 mph at ACK. Strongest winds overnight occur roughly in the 08z-14z window from west to east, as strengthening low level jet traverses the region and is aided by strong pressure falls/isallobaric acceleration. Brief break in rain intensity next few hours before next band of heavy rain currently across eastern PA and NJ arrives here in SNE later this evening. As of 7 pm, all rivers and streams remain well below action stage along with FLASH not concerning. Therefore flood concerns will hold off until midnight and thereafter, especially into Monday morning. Previous discussion below.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Rain associated with this evening's much anticipated event has begun to overspread southern New England with showers blossoming across the entirety of the region. While generally light, we have seen a few tenths of QPF over the last hour at sites across central Connecticut, such as Willimantic.
Low pressure continues to push into southern New England this evening as mid level trough tilts negative, amplifying pressure falls as well and the low level jet, which at 925mb will reach peak strength of 80-90kt early Monday morning.
Overall, anticipated hazards remain consistent with previous updates with the low level jet mixing potent gusts to the surface across southeast MA, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. Gusts will build towards 40kt by the midnight hour, growing in strength as the low closes in on southern New England by 12Z, at which time peak gusts near 55kt will be experienced across the Cape and Islands. After 12Z, the cold front that sweeps the low into the Gulf of Maine will cause an abrupt wind shift from the south to the northwest. With the jet offshore, will see winds diminish by half behind the front, to 25-35kt between 09-15Z.
While not diminishing the damaging wind threat for coastal southern New England, we wish to highlight that excessive rainfall leading to rapid small river and stream rises as well as urban, poor drainage, and flash flooding is likely overnight as rain becomes more intense after sunset this evening. This system will feed off of a stream of moisture advecting from the Gulf of Mexico, causing PWATs to rise to 1.5" plus (very high by December standards), combined with southerly, parallel to the approaching front, flow some four to five standard deviations of normal, which will amplify warm rain processes. Additionally, the freezing level is some ten to twelve thousand feet, indicating that this tropically infuses system will pack a punch across southern New England, even though it will lack significant convective elements with little to no instability present. Several pieces of guidance show the possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit, overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.
The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift, with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HRRR ensemble consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5- 7" across the aforementioned region.
While it may seem insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of 10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased potential for flash flooding. Given much of this precipitation will fall overnight and to start the morning commute, motorists are urged to heed extreme caution when encountering flooded roadways as hazards may be difficult or impossible to see. Turn around, don't drown!
Aforementioned cold frontal passage will begin to infiltrate far western southern New England around 09Z which will allow for a transition to snow across the high terrain as temperatures drop some 20F behind the front. Accumulation of snow will be difficult outside of the high terrain given very warm antecedent conditions, a very saturated ground, and borderline temps in the mid 30s, thus, again relied heavily on positive snow depth change forecasts rather than 10:1 or Kuchera snow accumulations to derive our forecast. Overall, 1-4" is forecast for areas of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden county above 800ft, with minor accumulations possible between 600-800ft. Rain will likely transition to snow across the higher terrain of Worcester County for a very brief period between 12-15Z, but will have trouble accumulating; again, for the above reasons. By 15Z, precip will begin to wrap up everywhere with clearing beginning from southwest to northeast.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
It will be a tale of two forecasts on Monday as cold front pushes offshore between 14-16Z, allowing for a much colder, drier airmass to infiltrate southern New England. Fortunately, temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon accompanied by a drying, blustery NW wind will preclude a hard freeze. Sunshine looks to become widespread by the lunch hour/early afternoon.
Will note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding wind gusts tomorrow afternoon as guidance is split into two campaigns about the strength of the low level jet. The GFS and NBM are amped up on the potential for a 40-45kt jet maintaining position over western MA tomorrow afternoon, with the NAM, ECWMF, and CMC highlighting a weaker jet around 30kt.
Thus, while it is possible that gusts of 40kt+ mix to the surface across the Berkshires on downsloping NW CAA, which would reach wind advisory criteria, confidence is too low to issue a headline at this time.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Points: - Mainly dry weather expected - Below normal temps give way to another warmup by next weekend
Upper level pattern should feature a broad trough over much of eastern US through midweek, but with lack of downstream blocking, pattern remains progressive and trough will exit to Maritimes. This will allow for a pattern change later in week as upper ridge takes hold and brings yet another warmup into next weekend. This pattern also favors dry weather overall.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z update: high confidence in trends, slightly lower on exact timing of details. Strong frontal passage 07z-13z roughly from west to east, with wind shift from SSW to west. Periods of heavy rain in IFR/LIFR along with strong low level wind shear. No change to TAFs as previous forecast remains on track. Earlier discussion below.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Light rain gradually overspreads region this afternoon as conditions lower to MVFR/IFR. Steadier and heaver rain arrives this evening and continues overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR.
Should see rapid improvement to VFR as rain ends 15-18Z Mon but with areas of MVFR ceilings lingering near the higher elevations.
Strong low level jet of 80kt passing through SE New England will result in significant LLWS, mainly near coast, starting late this afternoon and continuing through late tonight.
S winds increase through evening with peak gusts 40-60kt overnight, strongest near Cape Cod and Islands, then winds shift to W/NW overnight but still remain gusty through day on Monday.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Timing of lowering ceilings may be too fast through this evening. Higher confidence on winds and LLWS.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Dangerous storm for mariners expected to impact the waters mainly tonight into Monday. Storm Watches remain in effect for all waters except Boston Harbor where a Gale Warning is in place. Rain will continue across the waters overnight and will be heavy at times, reducing visibility. There is even a low risk (10-20%) for thunderstorms, especially across the southern coastal waters.
An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters. Seas gradually diminish through the day Monday, but will still be rough on the waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises, as well as poor drainage and urban flooding, is elevated from tonight into Monday. Most locations within interior southern New England should see 2-4 inches of rainfall. Farther SE, rainfall totals should be 2 inches or less, mainly due to the duration of rainfall. The risk for 5"+ of rain has shifted a bit southeast into central/eastern Connecticut and Central Massachusetts, and has been highlighted by a Moderate Excessive Rainfall outlook.
Rainfall of this magnitude during this time of year, where the ground may be partially frozen or debris may be clogging storm drains, only magnifies the runoff and lesses the time before rises on smaller stream and creeks.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
* Coastal Flood Advisory for Narragansett Bay and south coast
Latest guidance suggests the peak surge for Providence will be near the time of high tide. There is still some uncertainty with exact timing and it could end up a few hours earlier or later depending on the timing of the cold front and wind shift.
However, our confidence is high that peak surge will reach up to 3 ft at Providence and 1.5 to 2.5 ft elsewhere along the RI and MA south coast. We think the ETSS and ESTOFS surge guidance is underdone and we leaned toward PETSS 90th percentile given the strong southerly LLJ and 24 hr pressure falls of 24-26 mb, which will enhance the surge. The highest confidence for minor flooding will be along Narragansett Bay due to funneling/channeling up the Bay with southerly flow. The risk for moderate flooding is rather low so we converted the coastal flood watch to an advisory. We would need a 4+ ft surge to reach moderate flooding and this appears unlikely at this time.
The flood threat is lower outside of Narragansett Bay where surge will be less. Worst case scenario would be very minor flooding or splashover along the RI south coast west of Narragansett Bay as well as Buzzards Bay and the south coast of Cape Cod.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-013-015>018.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for MAZ020.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ001>005.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ006-007.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for RIZ002- 004>007.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ230.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251-254.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ236.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA | 2 mi | 73 min | S 12G | 57°F | 44°F | 29.72 | ||
| 44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND | 20 mi | 51 min | S 25G | 55°F | 46°F | 29.66 | ||
| CHTM3 | 29 mi | 73 min | S 17G | 55°F | 47°F | |||
| WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA | 33 mi | 106 min | SSE 5.1 | 52°F | 29.71 | 52°F | ||
| BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA | 37 mi | 73 min | 59°F | 47°F | 29.67 | |||
| 44090 | 42 mi | 61 min | 55°F | 48°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KACK NANTUCKET MEMORIAL,MA | 1 sm | 16 min | SSE 22G28 | 4 sm | Overcast | Mist | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 29.68 |
Wind History from ACK
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, Tide feet
Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM EST -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:55 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EST 1.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:02 PM EST -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 04:18 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:14 PM EST 1.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:44 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:42 AM EST -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:55 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EST 1.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:02 PM EST -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 04:18 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:14 PM EST 1.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:44 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -1.2 |
| 2 am |
| -1.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Boston, MA,
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