Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Madison Center, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The area remains in the warm sector of a large low pressure system this afternoon. The cold front associated with this low pressure passing to the north of the area will push through this evening and overnight. Given the ample heat and moisture over the area today, moderate amounts of instability will be present this afternoon.
Instability combined with 25-35kt of 0-6km shear should be ample enough to allow for the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, should any storms develop.

Most of the strongest forcing associated with this cold frontal passage will be north of the area. Despite this, CAMs are consistently showing isolated to at most scattered convection that moves into the area from the northwest this afternoon. SPC has much of the western half of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms this evening, with the primary threat being gusty winds. Any storms that do develop should weaken and dissipate by or shortly after sunset.

Additionally a heat advisory remains in effect through 10PM this evening for heat index values of 98-103 for much of the area.

The cold front will push through the area tonight allowing for a shift of the wind to the NW. This will allow for drying of the airmass and lowering of the dew points into the 60s. This cold frontal passage will allow the hot and humid conditions to end.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with the warmest locations being along the coast and for the NYC Metro.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
By Friday, the area will be behind the departing cold front to the east. High pressure over the Great Lakes regions will gradually build into the area during the day Friday and into Friday night.
This high pressure will keep the area dry with skies being mostly clear to partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s.

Lower dew points into the low 60s to upper 50s will allow for much more comfortable conditions. Lows Friday night will be able to drop into the 60s for most with upper 50s possible for the far interior NW portions of the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Near zonal upper flow Saturday gives way to a upper trough passing to the north Sunday into early Monday. At the surface high pressure will be moving offshore Saturday with a warm front moving across the region. Weak surface low pressure passing through the Great Lakes and into upstate New York and into New England Saturday night into Sunday will bring a cold front across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will see a return to warm and humid conditions with heat indices 90 to 94 across much of the region, and dew points in the lower 70s. And with high precipitable water values any scattered thunderstorms could produce briefly heavy rainfall. Timing of the cold front passage remains consistent and looks to be Sunday late afternoon/evening. Much drier air returns behind the cold front with temperatures returning to more seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday. The cold front that moved through Sunday/Sunday night will remain south of the region, and possibly return north as a warm front later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing warm and humid conditions back to the area.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front is nearing the area from the west and north today from a low pressure system over southern Ontario. This front will pass through the area this evening. High pressure builds in from the west tonight into tomorrow.

Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF period. MVFR is possible in SHRA/TSRA roughly 19Z-02Z today (mid-afternoon to early evening).
Coverage looks sparse and location is uncertain, so have kept out of the TAFs except for a TEMPO for TSRA at KSWF 20Z-00Z. Its possible these may be added in amendments later, should confidence increase.

SW winds will continue to increase into the afternoon, 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Can't rule out a stray gust up to 30 kt at the NYC metros. Following FROPA, winds become NW mid to late evening at 10- 15 kts with gusts of around 20 kts becoming occasional. Outlying terminals may drop below 10 kts overnight. Kept gusts out of TAFs tomorrow, with winds NW/NNW around 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SW winds could briefly gust up to 30 kt late this afternoon.

An isolated shower or tstm may be possible from about 19Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night-Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms. MVFR or lower cond likely.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet late this afternoon into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some occasional near shore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High pressure will build in on Friday, with conditions remaining below SCA thresholds from then through Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With strengthening SW flow today, the risk for rip current development will be moderate, and surf height will be 2-3 ft.
The moderate risk will continue into Friday, with winds from the NW- W and a remaining S swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.