Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:21PM Friday July 19, 2019 5:57 AM EDT (09:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 309 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 309 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through the waters today bringing a return to hot conditions. High pressure remains dominant over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front then passes through the waters Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure slowly building from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190756
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
356 am edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front moves through today bringing a return to hot
conditions. High pressure then remains dominant over the
southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front approaches
and moves across the region Sunday night through through Monday.

High pressure returns Tuesday and remains through Thursday.

Near term through tonight
The lingering remnants of t.C. Barry and an attendant surface
low will quickly pass to the east this morning, with any
lingering showers coming to an end. The inversion that held
overnight due to colder surface air associated with high
pressure to the north will rapidly erode as a warm front moves
through, allowing stratus to clear and bringing a return to
west- southwest flow and well above normal temperatures to the
area. Today will mark the start of a heat wave for the region
that is expected to peak this weekend. The interior areas of
northeastern new jersey, nyc, into the lower hudson valley will
likely record temperatures solidly in the 90s, to near 95.

Elsewhere, both deterministic and hi resolution data have
trended more towards onshore flow, particularly for long island
and portions of coastal connecticut, though unusually high dew
points remain, and will lead to higher heat indices despite the
cooler temperatures relative to areas to the west. Heat
headlines look good at the moment, though it's possible that
coastal southeastern connecticut and the twin forks of long
island may fall just short of heat advisory levels.

Outside of heat headlines, potential for thunderstorms will be a
concern. Early this morning, an MCS is moving through the great
lakes region, and is expected to continue eastward. This
convectively induced vorticity maximum will reach our area by
evening. Several runs now of hi resolution data, as well as
some 00z deterministic models now indicate that convective
coverage will increase upstream, with outflow boundaries
initiating new activity, developing into clusters as they move
into our area. Similar to the past few days, high precipitable
water should lead to precip loading, with any downdrafts then
enhanced in the dry subcloud layer. Strong to perhaps severe
winds and heavy rainfall will be possible. These storms should
then gradually diminish with eastward extent with the loss of
diurnal heating and as they move into the marine layer.

Overnight lows will continue to be well above normal, with some
record high minimum values possible.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
today.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
The forecast area will remain between a building bermuda high
and an upper trough centered around the hudson bay to the north,
with strengthening westerlies between the two systems. With
little onshore component and at least some downslope flow,
temperature values will feel oppressive when combined with
ongoing high dew points and humidity. The heat wave is expected
to peak this weekend, with several temperature records possibly
in jeopardy.

An excessive heat warning remains in effect, as heat indices
will largely be in excess of 105 for the entire area, with the
exception of the twin forks of long island, which may have more
of an onshore component. Utilized a blend for forecast
temperatures with higher resolution data, as temperature
differences may be large across small areas, most notably across
long island where the south shore with an ocean breeze may be
around 10 degrees cooler than the north shore. Anomalously high
dew points will remain, and low temperatures will remain
oppressive. Of note, Sunday may now be the hottest of the two
days for many locations.

Apart from heat, weak height falls begin late Sunday as the
ridge shifts slightly east ahead of the approaching upper
trough. Although there will be no strong feature to initiate
thunderstorms, the weak height falls combined with a thermal
trough and sea breezes may be sufficient enough to trigger
convective activity. Expect gusty winds and heavy rainfall with
any storms that can develop.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Saturday.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
A cold front will approach the region Sunday night into Monday,
pushing across the region during the second half of Monday and
Monday night. This will mark the end of the high heat and humidity
which will have been in place through the weekend. Expect
precipitation (showers and thunderstorms) chances to increase Sunday
night and Monday, with the best chances Monday afternoon. The front
seems to stall offshore on Monday night into Tuesday, which should
result in some additional lingering showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will gradually build into the area from the west, with dry
weather expected for the middle of the week.

Max temperatures in the long term will climb into the 80s Monday
through Thursday. Much lower humidity levels will finally be felt on
Tuesday as dew points finally fall back into the 50s and lower
60s.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front will dissipate south of the region into this morning. A
bermuda high will be in place today through tonight.

MVFR ifr stratus over the terminals will eventually scatter out this
morning, 11-13z. MainlyVFR conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. Only exception would be brief MVFR ifr
in any showers or thunderstorms, which there will be a chance of
near kswf this evening.

Winds initially around 5kt generally out of the n-ne. The winds
become s-sw 5-10 kt late this morning into the early this afternoon
and then further increase to around 15kt with gusts up to 20 kt for
some terminals, mainly near nyc. Winds decrease in the evening with
gusts diminishing.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi47 min N 11 G 13 66°F 1010.4 hPa63°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi57 min N 4.1 G 6 66°F 69°F1011.9 hPa (-0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi63 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 71°F1011.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi57 min 65°F 68°F1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
44069 47 mi57 min NNW 3.9 G 7.8 70°F 81°F68°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi37 min N 9.7 G 14 67°F 73°F1012.3 hPa67°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi62 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1012.9 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi64 minN 410.00 miOvercast70°F66°F87%1012.3 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F64°F87%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmNE7NE5
G10
NE7E6NE3NE5NE6NE6N5NE4CalmN4N55N6N4Calm
1 day agoSW4SW4SW533S66SW5SW7S5
G11
W3SW464CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5S6
G12
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SW85SW84S5S6SW7SW6SW3SW4W6SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:59 AM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:25 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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55.454.12.81.60.60.10.31.12.23.44.454.94.23.22.11.20.60.61.32.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:21 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.94.53.62.51.40.50.10.41.12.13.24.14.64.53.82.91.910.50.61.32.23.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.