Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday December 12, 2019 6:47 AM EST (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 548 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming W late. Seas 2 to 3 ft early, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 548 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through today then pushes offshore this evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through the marine zones on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 121133 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 633 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dense arctic high pressure system shifts over the Tri-State area today then continues to move east and offshore tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast on track with just minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. Otherwise, a strong 1040mb high pressure system builds over the Tri-State area this morning through the evening spurred eastward by a 120kt zonal jet streak over Maine. This system brings in much drier conditions than the previous 24 hours with an average 1000-500mb RH fall to less than 20%. As a result clear skies expected with no chance of precipitation.

Temperatures will be much colder as well approximately 10 degrees lower than the daily normals. High temperatures in the afternoon will struggle to reach the mid 30s near the city and across Long Island. Areas around the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT may not rise about freezing despite the sunny day.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday evening and overnight as locally winds become more southerly allowing for moisture in the low levels to begin to return to the region. In the upper levels of the atmosphere a trough axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley promotes a southwest to northeast upper level flow. In this flow regime deep sub-tropical air will be able to moisten the environment locally.

Expected an chance for scattered showers Friday afternoon into the evening as cloudiness increases throughout the day though isolated showers could be possible in the late morning hours as well. Temperatures return to near normal reaching the mid 40s by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The long term period starts off wet as an area of low pressure impacts the region Friday night through Saturday night. POPs will gradually increase Friday night with rain rain becoming likely.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri- State Area Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be moderate, to locally heavy at times. Rain chances gradually drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. There may be a few left over showers early Sunday morning, but overall, drier weather is expected on Sunday.

High passes over the area on Monday, with dry weather continuing. The next low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix into Tuesday. Will continue to keep PoPs limited to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as 00z forecast models continue to show different storm tracks. The exact track will have implications on precipitation type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time, however, it is possible we could see some sleet or even some freezing rain depending on the exact track of the low, and at this point, its too far out to determine that now. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure builds over the region today and then moves offshore through tonight.

VFR though most of the period with MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Friday.

NW winds will continue to gradually lighten through the morning hours. Any lingering gusts should end by 10z. A weak and variable flow should occur 18z-21z before a weak S-SE flow develops late in the afternoon into the early evening.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Winds could vary 20-30 degrees to the right of forecast this morning, but speeds under 10 kt.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds could vary 20-30 degrees to the right of forecast this morning, but speeds under 10 kt.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds could vary 20-30 degrees to the right of forecast this morning, but speeds under 10 kt.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Winds could be light and variable through the evening.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Winds could vary 20-30 degrees to the right of forecast this morning, but speeds under 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower. Rain developing, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off to scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. Wave heights diminish during the day Thursday with offshore waters 2-3 feet. South winds strengthen Friday and waves increase through the day reaching 4-5 feet by the late afternoon.

Winds and seas continue to increase Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conditions area expected on the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday. For the non-ocean waters, there is a chance we remain sub-sca as gusts do not reach 25 kt and seas do not reach 5 ft. The exact track of the low will determine whether or not sca conditions are met.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DJ/16 NEAR TERM . DJ/16 SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DS MARINE . BC/DJ/16 HYDROLOGY . BC/DJ/16 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi47 min WNW 8 G 9.9 25°F 42°F1037.8 hPa (+3.1)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi32 min Calm G 1 26°F 12°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 7 25°F 44°F1037 hPa (+3.5)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi53 min WNW 2.9 G 7 25°F 44°F1038 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi47 min 29°F 44°F1037.6 hPa (+3.7)
44069 47 mi47 min NNW 9.7 G 16 28°F 39°F13°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi52 minWNW 310.00 miFair21°F10°F63%1036.9 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi54 minWNW 610.00 miFair28°F9°F44%1037.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi54 minNW 310.00 miFair18°F12°F81%1038.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW8NW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:12 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:30 AM EST     5.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:01 PM EST     4.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.92.71.60.70.20.41.22.53.84.95.55.54.73.520.8-0.1-0.30.21.22.53.74.64.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:07 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     5.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.41.40.50.20.41.22.43.64.55.154.33.11.80.6-0.1-0.30.21.22.43.54.24.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.