Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 13, 2020 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:43AMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 542 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft early, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms late this morning. Chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 542 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak front remains nearly stationary across the area today before moving offshore overnight. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, before shifting offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 131057 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 657 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front remains nearly stationary across the area today before moving offshore overnight. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, before shifting offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A weak boundary will remain nearly stationary across the area today. With forecast details dependent on the exact location of this boundary, this leads to a challenging forecast even in the near term.

The forecast remains on track this morning with the bulk of the showers having dissipated and moved off to the east. A few stray showers will continue to be possible through the mid morning before attention turns to how much convective development occurs this afternoon and where that convection will be located.

While instability builds area-wide into the afternoon, with the potential for 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE per the NAM, a number of complicating factors exist that will likely serve to limit convective development across at least part of the region. First, the main shortwave energy aloft swings through the area this morning into early this afternoon, with the next shortwave remaining back across western New York. Second, the atmosphere dries out considerably from west to east this afternoon, with falling precipitable water values. Both of these should serve to limit convective development during the afternoon hours, with the best chance for any convection likely confined to areas east of the Hudson River.

High resolution models have little in the way of convection across the area today, although given the instability any storms that do develop have the potential to be strong to severe. With convection appearing to focus east of New York City, the flash flooding threat is reduced, as flash flood guidance is significantly higher across southern Connecticut and Long Island.

High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 80s, a few degrees above normal for mid July.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches again today due to continued long period southerly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. The front dissipates as it moves offshore tonight as the upper trough shifts into New England. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s in outlying areas north of New York City to the upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

On Tuesday, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon as additional energy swings around the base of the trough, primarily across southern Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley. Otherwise, the day will remain dry for the majority of the area, with fair weather clouds developing by afternoon. Highs will be near normal, in the mid 80s.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday as long period southerly swell continues.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Any showers come to an end Tuesday night as high pressure builds into the region. This will result in dry weather through Wednesday night before the high shifts offshore on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system.

As the high and ridge drift east late in the week into the weekend expect a return to a more wet and unstable environment. A long wave trough moving east into New England pulls north Gulf moisture into New York. Precipitable water values above 1.70 inches could fuel heavy rain Friday and possibly Saturday. Timing of the trough is still uncertain at this time and will have to be monitored for future updates.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak front will remain stationary across the region today, before before sliding east this evening. An upper level disturbance approaches today into tonight and crosses the region on Tuesday.

VFR forecast outside of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Uncertainty on where the weak front stalls this afternoon, but that will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Highest probability for TSRA appears to be east of the Hudson, potentially KLGA/KHPN/KBDR, in vicinity of weak front. West of the Hudson (KEWR/KTEB/KSWF), in wake of the front, chance for TSRA should be quite limited. Limited TSRA threat window for KGON and KISP as sea breeze will likely push the threat north by mid to late afternoon.

W/SW winds less than 7kt, early this morning. Winds will be W/WSW 8-12kt with higher gusts west of the weak front (KEWR/KTEB/KSWF) and potentially KLGA/KHPN. Meanwhile S/SW winds 8-12 kt for south coastal and eastern terminals, with a veering to WSW for evening push as front moves through. Light W flow tonight.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: S/SW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon into early evening push.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low prob for tsra between 17z and 20z. W gusts 15-20 kt possible this afternoon into early evening push.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: W gusts 15-20 kt possible this afternoon into early evening push.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: W gusts to 15 kt possible this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low prob for tsra between 17z and 20z.

KISP TAF Comments: Low prob for tsra between 17z and 21z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday through Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible for northern terminals Tuesday afternoon. W/NW wind on Tue, E/NE wind on Wed. Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR. A chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through tonight for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. While seas may briefly fall below 5 feet this morning, they are expected to increase to 5 feet again this afternoon as long period southerly swell continues.

Otherwise, winds will remain below 25 kt on all waters through Friday night. Once ocean seas fall below 5 feet on Tuesday, they will remain below SCA-criteria through the remainder of the period.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and thunderstorms today could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding. Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/DJ NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/DJ AVIATION . NV MARINE . FEB/DJ HYDROLOGY . FEB/DJ EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi46 min SW 8 G 8.9 76°F 77°F1007.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi46 min S 8.9 G 9.9 75°F 69°F1008.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi46 min S 9.9 G 12 76°F 75°F1007.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi46 min 74°F 69°F1008.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi24 min SSW 9.7 G 14 70°F 73°F1009.3 hPa70°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi79 minVar 610.00 miFair84°F68°F58%1008.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi41 minS 910.00 miFair81°F71°F72%1008.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi41 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds83°F64°F53%1007.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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665SW5SW3----W4--CalmCalmCalm----3--6
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Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:41 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.52.33.13.94.34.43.93.22.31.510.91.32.133.94.64.94.63.932.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.42.22.93.6443.62.82.11.40.90.91.322.93.74.24.54.23.52.71.91.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.