Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday April 2, 2020 11:10 PM EDT (03:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 736 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of light rain early this evening, then chance of light rain late this evening. Light rain likely after midnight.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 736 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will meander well east and south of long island through Friday night. High pressure will build across the area this weekend before a weak cold front crosses the waters Sunday night. High pressure then briefly returns on Monday, followed by an approaching frontal system for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 030031 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 831 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Deep low pressure well east of Long Island meanders through Friday night, and then tracks out into the Atlantic. High pressure will build across on Saturday before a weak cold front crosses the area Sunday night. High pressure then briefly returns on Monday, followed by an approaching frontal system for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Cloud cover continues to increase across the area this evening as the low well east of the region continues to slowly retrograde back to the west. Radar returns across the area are so far not producing much in the way of precipitation as the subcloud layer remains dry. Expect this to change as the evening wears on, although did delay the increase in PoPs by another hour or two based on the latest trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Low pressure has occluded and will continue to weaken well east of Long Island. The low does get cut off from the westerlies, thus will retrograde to some degree and it loops back closer to the area tonight and into Friday morning. Have nudged back the likely POPs by a couple of hours based on the latest high res guidance and satellite depiction. The eastern half of the area does not go to likely POPs until around midnight. Have chosen to hold out likely POPs for the city through the night, and only get POPs up to about 50 from about 8z through daybreak. Winds were bumped up a touch from previous packages tonight with consistent 25 to 30 mph gusts more likely now, with an occasional higher gust or two. Lows will be mainly in the lower and middle 40s region wide with a lack of spread due to more in the way of cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As the low pulls away on Friday, the low will continue to circulate clouds and patches of showers through the area, with the better chance for southern and eastern parts of the region during Friday morning and into the early afternoon. Chance POPs were carried for far western and northwestern interior sections due to farther proximity to the low. By Friday afternoon the low will begin to make a turn to eject east. The best chance of showers comes with a couple of embedded spokes of energy that transverse the area from northeast to southwest, which is not something we typically see. By Friday afternoon the peak wind gusts again should get to about 25 to 30 mph, although with an occluding and weakening low expect the gusts to not be as frequent as earlier, especially into Friday night.

By Friday evening the precip chances begin to lower quickly from west to east as the low finally ejects east and out to sea. Breaks in the clouds should develop across western sections, with even a few patches of clearing possible later at night. The clouds however should hold across eastern sections, especially east of NYC. Total rainfall from the system should be generally less than a quarter of an inch, with perhaps far Eastern LI and Eastern CT getting to around a quarter of an inch due to their proximity to some of the more sturdy rain bands from the low.

For the start of the weekend partly sunny skies should attempt to develop on Saturday, although some high RH at around 5 kft may limit the amount of sunshine. A disturbance shown by some of the global guidance may then try to slide down the front side of an approaching ridge into late Saturday and Saturday evening. Kept showers out of the forecast for now after collaboration with neighboring offices, but cannot completely rule out showers moving down out of the northwest during late Saturday and Saturday night. The limiting factor for showers would be dry air in the lower levels. Temperatures should average close to normal for Friday into Saturday and Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure drifts offshore on Sunday as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. This will result in a gradual increase in clouds north and west of the city, but with the front weakening as it reaches the local area, rain chances continue to look fairly limited. The best chance for a few showers will be late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut, with a few additional showers overnight across eastern Connecticut and Long Island as the front pushes east of the area. High pressure then briefly builds back across the area on Monday before quickly shifting offshore by evening.

Unsettled weather then returns for the middle of the week as a disorganized low pressure system traversing the middle of the country tries to lift a warm front towards the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Models then differ in the strength and position of high pressure over eastern Canada and the role it plays in potentially slowing an approaching low over southern Canada towards the end of the long term. Given the high degree of uncertainty, maintained a slight chance to chance of showers throughout the Tuesday-Thursday period, but suspect at least some portion of this period will end up remaining dry. These features should be better resolved over the coming days.

Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through much of the long term, with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC north and west and in the mid 50s across Long Island and coastal Connecticut. Overnight lows will generally fall into the low to mid 40s in typically cooler outlying locations and remain in the mid to upper 40s in the New York City metro area.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low pres will drift swd over the Atlc thru Fri.

VFR thru most of tngt, then cigs are expected to lower to MVFR late, and continue thru the rest of the TAF period.

Gusty NW winds will veer to the N on Fri. Strongest gusts will be mainly tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday night. MVFR cigs, possibly improving to VFR at times. Chance evening showers. Saturday. MVFR cigs in the morning, then VFR. Saturday night. VFR, then MVFR cigs late. Sunday. Periods of MVFR. Monday and Tuesday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Gale Warnings will be up for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet through at least Friday evening. Otherwise, SCA's remain in effect through Friday and Friday evening, with occasional gusts approaching minimum gale force at times.

Thereafter winds and seas will diminish, with seas coming down at a much slower pace. Seas will remain elevated for the ocean waters, thus small craft conditions will continue on the ocean, primarily due to high seas through the weekend. Ocean seas will remain elevated through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night before finally subsiding below 5 ft Monday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the remainder of the period, with seas on the ocean remaining between 2-4 ft and wind gusts between 15-20 kt.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides may approach minor coastal flooding benchmarks around the high tide Friday morning for portions of the western Sound, and flood prone locations in the western back bays of Long Island. Persistent gusty northerly winds, building seas/swell/and rising astronomical tide levels will result in perhaps more widespread minor coastal flooding late Friday/Friday evening, and Saturday. Local moderate coastal flooding is possible Saturday morning.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ330-340-345-355. Gale Warning until midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ350-353.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi53 min N 5.1 G 14 46°F 46°F1001.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi196 min NNW 32 G 38 46°F 997.5 hPa35°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi53 min N 11 G 16 42°F 46°F1000.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi53 min N 11 G 17 47°F 45°F1002.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi53 min 43°F 45°F1000.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi1.9 hrsN 14 G 2510.00 miLight Rain43°F37°F81%1001.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi78 minNW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast48°F37°F68%1002.3 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi4.3 hrsNNW 19 G 3010.00 miLight Rain and Breezy53°F30°F43%1001.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5NE5N3N6N8NE7NE7
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2 days ago6NE6NE8NE5NE6NE5NE6NE7NE65NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.3233.94.64.94.73.92.91.91.10.60.61.1233.94.44.64.23.42.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Sachem Head, Connecticut
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Sachem Head
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.223.14.14.95.45.24.53.42.31.40.70.6123.14.14.85.14.73.92.81.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.