Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:39PM Sunday September 27, 2020 11:27 AM EDT (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:09PMMoonset 2:11AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 556 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Today..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early. Slight chance of showers this morning. Chance of showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 556 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak area of low pressure off the mid atlantic drifts northward today. High pressure over the atlantic establishes the flow for the beginning of the week. A broad slow moving frontal system will then impact the area for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 271445 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1045 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning will track slowly northward today, washing out as it nears the area this evening. A slow moving frontal system will then approach from the Ohio Valley to start the week, moving into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Waves of low pressure ride along the front before it pushes east by Thursday. A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then follow at the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Minor adjustments were made with this update to account for latest observations and trends, mainly hourly temperatures and cloud cover.

A weak area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will work northward toward the area today. Aloft, a shortwave ridge passes to the east by this evening. While not much lift and instability, guidance is all in pretty good agreement for widely scattered showers working in from the southeast across eastern Long Island and gradually working westward toward the NYC metro/Lower Hudson Valley late in the day. This will be another day of hit and miss activity with little if any rainfall.

Low clouds will be slow to lift and dissipate today with the onshore E/SE flow and a weakening subsidence inversion. Eastern Long Island and southeast CT will likely stay mostly cloudy throughout the day with locations to the west becoming partly sunny as the afternoon progresses.

It will be another warm, humid day with highs into the 70s with a few spots around the NYC metro and north and west touching the 80-degree mark.

A moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches will continue today due to a continued E-SE swell and E-SE winds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Scattered showers will expand across the area early this evening as weak low pressure washes out near NYC. For the second half of the night patchy fog and drizzle can be expected with a second area of showers emerging from the southwest as a shortwave trough approaches from the Mid Atlantic. The latter of which is being steered by a deepening upper trough over the Mississippi Valley. The associated frontal system will then work slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley on Monday, approaching the area on Tuesday. Showers will remain widely scattered Monday into Monday night with a deep-layered southerly flow and weak lift. There will also be a continuation of low clouds and patchy fog this evening and again Monday night.

There is reasonably good agreement amongst the global models with a piece of energy separating from the main parent upper vortex over the Great Lakes Monday night, digging it southward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast on Tuesday. This will likely slow the progression of the cold front as it approaches the area on Tuesday. This is a complicated interaction and the amount of separation with the main upper trough will determine the progression of the boundary and where it may eventually stall.

The threat of showers will increase form west to east on Tuesday as a deep-layered southerly (warm advection) set up bands of showers out ahead of the front. There may even be enough instability for embedded thunderstorms. Anomalously high precipitable water values near 2 inches will also be present. These values exceed the 90th percentile with the all-time high for Tuesday being 2 inches. Thus, any convection will be capable of heavy rains, especially as we get late in the day as the better lift associated with the upper trough and front approaches.

Warm, humid conditions will continue during this time with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 60s. These values are well above normal by about 5 to 10 degrees for highs and more than 10 degrees for lows.

A moderate to possibly high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Monday due to a building southerly swell and strengthening onshore winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The cold front pushes east into the area but then looks to stall somewhere in the vicinity Wednesday. This will allow for disturbances to ride along the front from southwest to northeast allowing for periods of moderate to heavy rain into Thursday. The key will be where the front stalls and where the southern branch vortex tracks.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak low passes offshore today, but on the larger scale the region remains on the western side of a weak high pressure area based in the Western Atlantic.

E to ESE winds of 10 kts or less are expected through the TAF period.

MVFR this morning with VFR expected at the NYC arpts by 18Z. Conditions elsewhere are expected to stay mainly MVFR. All areas are expected to drop to IFR tonight from a combination of low ceilings and patchy fog.

A few sprinkles or shwrs possible today, especially ern terminals.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Low ceilings possible again tonight. Timing may require amendments.

The John F. Kennedy International and La Guardia afternoon haze forecast for today is MODERATE (YELLOW).

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Chance of showers, mainly during the day. Tuesday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts around 20 kt. Wednesday. IFR/MVFR with showers likely. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening. Thursday. Chance of MVFR. Chance of showers. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. The combination of weak low pressure tracking northward along the Mid Atlantic coast today and a building southerly swell will allow seas on the ocean to average around 3-4 ft today into Monday.

Winds on the ocean approach SCA criteria ahead of a cold front on Tuesday night and seas rise above SCA criteria by Wednesday. SCA conditions on the ocean waters are forecast from Tuesday night through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. A frontal boundary may stall close to the area midweek, increasing the chance for a significant rainfall event.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . JC/DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . DJ MARINE . DW/MW HYDROLOGY . DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi58 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 67°F1017.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi48 min ESE 5.1 G 6 67°F 1018.6 hPa67°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi58 min SSE 5.1 G 7 69°F 68°F1017 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi58 min ESE 5.1 G 7 70°F 69°F1016.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi58 min 69°F 66°F1017.3 hPa
44069 47 mi73 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 67°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi38 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 67°F 67°F5 ft1017.3 hPa66°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi35 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast73°F69°F87%1016.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi35 minS 510.00 miOvercast71°F64°F81%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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SE6S5SE3SE3--Calm--SE3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4--CalmS5SW5SW6SW8SW7S4S5CalmCalmS3------CalmCalm--CalmCalm--
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmNW3W4----6
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Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:52 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.80.40.51.22.13.24.24.84.84.33.52.41.30.60.61.123.14.255.34.94.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sachem Head, Connecticut
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Sachem Head
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:42 AM EDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     5.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.10.50.51.12.13.34.55.25.34.942.91.70.80.61.123.24.45.45.85.54.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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