Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 9, 2020 8:11 AM EDT (12:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 544 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 544 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will remain over the area today. Low pressure will then approach from the south tonight into Friday night, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through Saturday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 091156 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 756 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain over the area today. Low pressure will then approach from the south tonight into Friday night, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through Saturday into early next week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast on track this morning. Some early morning fog/low stratus should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. Did issue an SPS for some patchy dense fog which ends at 12z.

We are generally looking at another warm and humid day today as the flow becomes more S-SE by afternoon. A mid level ridge, should help reduce the amount of any convection today, however still can not rule out a few isolated storms, so will continue to mention the slight chance of a storm well north and west of NYC. Any storms that do develop should end quickly this evening with the loss of any daytime heating.

With respect to heat and headlines today, have decide to keep the Advisory going for Urban NE NJ, where the best chance of 95 degree heat index values will be reached, but have decided to drop the advisory for NYC. While a few heat indices may reach 95, it wont be widespread, and we wont hit the two day criteria of 95 or greater.

Temperatures today are expected to reach the 80s and lower 90s. With dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat index values will be in the 90s just about everywhere (with the exception of the south fork of Long Island and coastal New London county).

A moderate risk of rip current development will continue for the ocean beaches via long period S swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. An upper level ridge axis will move east, allowing a coastal low pressure system to approach from the south. This low is expected to become better organized and The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this system becoming tropical or a sub-tropical cyclone to 80 percent.

While all the forecast models bring the low up the coast, the models really start to differ as the low approaches the local region. The The 00z GFS remains furthest west with the low track, taking the low over NJ into the Lower Hudson valley, while the ECMWF, takes the low south of Long Island, then passing just east of Montauk. The NAM, is in the middle with the low passing over Long Island and up into Connecticut.

Either way, with the low approaching, rain chances increase early Friday morning as it taps into subtropical moisture as it moves up the coast. Rain chance will become likely for much of the day and continue into Friday night.

A low confidence forecast continues for where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, since this will be dependent on where the low actually tracks. Either way, expect a wet period from Friday into Friday night, with rainfall amounts 1 and 2 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible. PWATs values will range between 2 and 2.5 inches, so expect the rain to be heavy at times.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

The low should move out of the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with POPs gradually lowering late Friday night.

With continued onshore flow, tonight lows will remain mild, in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures down a bit on Friday, with highs only in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

High rip current risk is expected for Friday especially in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass through early next week. High pressure builds back across the area for the middle of the week.

Temperatures during the long term period will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak high pressure will remain in control today. The effects of low pressure to the south will begin to be felt along the coast late tonight.

Low stratus with IFR conds has briefly intruded from the SW into the NYC metros, and continues most elsewhere, with LIFR at KSWF. These lower cigs should scatter by about 14Z, with VFR for the rest of today. Light SSW winds winds back SE 5-10 kt by afternoon, the back E and diminish most of tonight before increasing toward daybreak Fri.

MVFR cond should arrive after midnight tonight, with IFR possible at some of the coastal terminals, most likely KGON.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http://weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Unscheduled AMD possible if lower cigs last longer than fcst this AM. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Unscheduled AMD possible if lower cigs last longer than fcst this AM. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Unscheduled AMD possible if lower cigs last longer than fcst this AM.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.

KISP TAF Comments: Unscheduled AMD possible if lower cigs last longer than fcst this AM.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. MVFR or lower conds. Rain possibly heavy at times with chance TSRA. E winds 15G20kt, backing SE in the evening, then backing S and diminishing overnight. Saturday. MVFR or lower cond likely in SHRA/TSRA, especially in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible.

MARINE. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak through Thursday night. Conditions on the forecast waters will remain below SCA thresholds.

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for Friday as low pressure approaches from the south. Winds and seas are expected to increase with gusts to 25 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. Expect the seas to remain elevated through Saturday, then subside slightly on Sunday. Conditions will remain above SCA conditions into early next week.

HYDROLOGY. Urban and poor drainage flood threat exists with any thunderstorm activity today. Main reason being a lack of steering flow so thunderstorms will be slow moving. Convective coverage will be more isolated today.

There is increasing potential for a moderate to heavy rainfall event Friday into Saturday as a coastal system moves up the Mid- Atlantic coast. Exact timing and track are still uncertain, but this system has the potential to produce at least 1 to 2 inches of rain with higher amounts possible with heavier bands.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . BC NEAR TERM . BC SHORT TERM . BC LONG TERM . Fig AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . BC/Fig HYDROLOGY . BC/Fig EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi53 min Calm G 1 73°F 73°F1015.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi53 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 71°F1015.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi53 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 69°F1016 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi53 min 73°F 68°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi78 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F97%1015.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi36 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist75°F73°F94%1016.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi78 minN 09.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHVN

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S8S5S7S6S3SW5SW9N5CalmE4CalmS4CalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoE7E10SE11
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2 days agoN6CalmN7S5S8S8E14SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Sachem Head, Connecticut
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Sachem Head
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Thu -- 02:32 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.95.65.64.93.82.51.40.50.30.71.734.25.15.45.14.33.22.11.10.70.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Branford Harbor, Connecticut
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Branford Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     6.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:05 PM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.25.46.16.25.54.22.81.50.50.30.81.93.34.65.665.74.73.52.21.20.711.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.