Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:59PM Saturday January 25, 2020 10:08 AM EST (15:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 648 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain late this morning. Chance of rain early this afternoon, then rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 648 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the southwest today and passes through the waters this evening. The low will then deepen as it lifts northeast into the canadian maritimes on Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 251450 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 950 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches from the southwest today and passes through the area this evening. The low will then deepen as it lifts northeast into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast has been updated to speed up the timing of rainfall spreading across portions of the forecast area, particularly across Long Island where lift and shallow moisture are resulting in light rain and drizzle.

An SPS has been issued over NW Orange County to address the potential of spotty freezing rain as temps here are still averaging around freezing. Temps should warm up above freezing here in the next couple of hours.

A well advertised southern branch low will impact the area today with mainly rain, which will be heaviest this afternoon into early this evening. The associated upper low lifts northeast from the Ohio Valley this morning and into the eastern Great Lakes by this evening. Upper jet energy ahead of the system will aid a secondary low to form across the Mid Atlantic states this morning, which then passes across the area this evening.

While not all that deep of a low, there are plenty of dynamics with the system (coupling jet structure, upper divergence) along with anomalously high precipitable water (just over an inch). Rainfall at times could be heavy with the potential for 0.75 to 1.25 inches. Much of this will occur in a 6 hour window. Low streamflow and dry antecedent conditions will limit any flooding to the minor nuisance variety.

East winds will gusts 15-25 mph inland and 20 to 30 mph at the coast during the morning and afternoon hours.

Highs will top out in the lower to mid 40s across the interior and near 50 across Long Island and the NYC metro.

The rain quickly shuts off early evening across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and the NYC metro, and by around 10 pm across far eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Winds will shift around to the west with the ending of the rain.

Cold advection on the backside of the low will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing north and west of NYC by daybreak, and the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The upper low over the Northeast on Sunday will lift up into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Monday. Cyclonic flow will result in a fair amount of clouds north and west of NYC with the potential for even a few rain and/or snow showers across Orange County on Sunday. Highs and low will remain above normal by about 5 degrees along with a westerly flow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper low moves out into the North Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday, with ridging to follow for the second half of the week. The forecast remains dry through Friday with temperatures trending towards normal.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. MVFR to IFR conditions as low pressure to the southwest approaches. This will bring in rain, mainly after 14Z, but the steadier, heavier rain will likely hold off until after late this morning in to the early afternoon. Any MVFR conditions will continue toward IFR, especially as this heavier rain moves through, with the potential for LIFR conditions. This moderate to heavy rainfall is expected between 17-22z with the rain coming to an end likely after 03z. The potential for freezing rain is decreasing for KSWF, so have taken it out of the forecast, but there still remains a low chance of a very brief period at the onset of the precipitation.

Winds are generally in the 10 to 15 kt range. Winds continue to increase through this morning, with sustained winds of up to 20 kt and gusts to around 25 kt by late this morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be increasing aloft as well, with SE wind shear of 50 kt at 2000 ft around the same time. Winds diminish late this afternoon.

NE winds shift to the E early this morning, then to the SE and quickly shift toward the W tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain or snow showers possible across the interior. Monday-Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. Winds increase this morning in response to a strengthening pressure gradient between a departing high and incoming low. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt are expected across all waters, with gusts just over 30 kt possible across the ocean waters. There is the potential that the ocean waters could see low end gale gusts, but this would be infrequent.

Waves on the ocean are already reporting 5 to 6 ft (buoy 44025 and 44065). Waves will continue to increase to 6 to 9 ft on the ocean waters by this afternoon, and then very slowly diminish. They should still remain above 5 ft through Sunday, therefore, the SCA was extended through the day Sunday. There is the possibility that waves remain elevated even into Sunday night and even into Monday. However, not enough confidence to extend the SCA that far out.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 are expected today, which may result in some minor nuisance flooding during the afternoon and early evening hours.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sunday through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire at 15z across the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens. Tides fell just short of minor flooding benchmarks.

Will leave up the coastal flood advisories and statements along LI Sound as moderate easterly winds continue.

Based on observations, will probably not need statements to address the flooding threat with tonight's high tide cycle, but will still consider statements based on this afternoon's obs and model guidance.

A westerly flow on Sunday will result in lower total water levels for the shorelines so no coastal flooding is expected on Sunday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ178- 179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . JC/DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . Fig/JP MARINE . JP HYDROLOGY . DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi57 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 38°F1020.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi51 min ENE 8 G 12 39°F 38°F1019.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi51 min ENE 7 G 12
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 32 mi44 min ENE 19 G 25 42°F 1018.3 hPa38°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi57 min 43°F 39°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi76 minENE 710.00 miOvercast42°F36°F79%1021.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi4.9 hrsNE 810.00 miOvercast37°F33°F87%1023 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi76 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast37°F32°F82%1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHVN

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N54S6E6E5E8E5CalmCalmNE4NE5NE5NE5NE5NE6N5NE5NE4NE10NE8NE7NE7NE9
1 day agoSW5S8SW6SW7SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N5N8N8
2 days agoN4NW6W7S9SW6SW8W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Sachem Head, Connecticut
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Sachem Head
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:05 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:17 AM EST     5.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:43 PM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.92.81.50.4-00.31.22.645.15.75.64.73.420.7-0.2-0.20.41.62.94.25

Tide / Current Tables for Branford Harbor, Connecticut
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Branford Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:02 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM EST     6.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:46 PM EST     5.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.44.431.60.4-00.31.42.84.35.66.36.15.23.82.20.7-0.2-0.30.51.73.24.55.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.