Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Risingsun, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:59 PM EST (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:21PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 1003 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 47 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:202011282115;;528110 FZUS51 KCLE 281503 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1003 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142-143-282115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Risingsun, OH
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location: 41.27, -83.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 290306 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1006 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build to the Mid Atlantic Coast overnight into Sunday. Low pressure developing near the Gulf Coast will track north to Pennsylvania on Monday and linger over the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Colder air will arrive on the back side of this system bringing a change over to snow and gusty winds through mid-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. No big changes with the evening update, as clear skies and quiet conditions continue overnight. The forecast remains on track, with perhaps a slight adjustment to low temperatures away from the lake.

Original discussion . Quiet conditions continue through Sunday with high pressure expanding northeast up the Ohio Valley. Skies will be clear tonight but the gradient on the north side of the high will maintain some mixing with southerly winds. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 20s inland to the mid 30s near the lakeshore. Sunday will feature increasing high clouds through the afternoon, becoming overcast Sunday night. This will occur as the upper level closed low over northern Texas moves northeast towards the Tennessee Valley and gets absorbed by a trough digging south out of Canada. Moisture will stream north into the area ahead of this feature with precipitation spreading north into the forecast area after midnight. This will tend to fall mainly in the form of rain but can not rule out a little bit of wet snow mixing in late in Northwest Ohio. Despite some evaporational cooling at the onset, temperatures only expected to dip to the mid 30s so not expecting any accumulation through the near term.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Focus for the short term will be the extent and magnitude of measurable snow across the area associated with an organized and complex winter storm with a transition to lake effect. The model trend with this forecast is for a slightly more south and east track for Monday and Monday night. This will favor a colder/more snowy solution with a lower potential for heavy rain. Leading into the event the soil temperatures are above normal, and Lake Erie water temperatures remain in the mid 40s. Both will play a factor in the snow accumulation of this event.

The synoptic pattern involves the phasing of two potent upper level lows, the subtropical jet with the northern polar jet which will support a deep and anomalously strong cut off low. At the surface the low will rapidly lift northeast as it deepens and cross just to our east during the day. Wrap around warm/moist air will favor mainly rain for much of the eastern half of the forecast area (I-71 corridor) on Monday, with the western half transitioning earlier to a rain/snow and eventually all snow. Temperatures will be dropping during the day, with eastern areas remaining above freezing all day. By the late afternoon snowfall rates will intensify which should overcome the warmer ground temperatures and allow for some snow to accumulate. Areas along/east of I-71 there will be little chance for accumulation based on the current forecast track.

The snowfall rates will peak during the most rapid deepening of the low which is likely to occur Monday night. Conditions are expected to deteriorate more rapidly in a swath/band near the deepening of the DGZ. Models are favoring the area from Erie County OH southward to the central highlands (Richland County). Moderate snowfall accumulations are possible, especially where upslope enhances the snow efficiency. This will spread eastward as the low lifts northeast, transitioning the rain/snow mix to all snow. Unclear how much a factor the warmer lake temperatures may have on limiting snow amounts on towns on the immediate lakeshore.

For Tuesday believe models are overdoing the potential "warming" during the day which have temps well above freezing. Will go with a colder forecast which will favor mainly snow. Wind forecast favors a northerly direction which will provide some lake enhancement to this synoptic event. Could see some areas of enhancement/higher snow rates as a result. By Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning snowfall will be ongoing, but the mid level moisture will start to erode from the west. Not clear how fast this will end snow in the western half, but it will at the very least reduce additional snowfall accumulations in the I-75 corridor and areas south.

The event will gradually make a transition over the lake effect early Wednesday which still has many uncertainties. Model consensus has a W flow becoming SW later in the day. Details are critical for amounts. Have high pops in the primary snowbelt for this reason. With the lake's above normal temperatures, there is the potential for some intense lake effect snowfall, but question is how much will move inland into our area. Apart from the lake effect snow, attention will be on the wind chills in the teens for much of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. There will be a brief break in our weather starting Thursday as high pressure tries to build back over the area. However, attention then swings to another northern stream low over western British Columbia. This feature will be our next weather maker as it too gets phased with the southern jet. Warm sub- tropical moisture will lift into the region, and again some colder 500mb temps (2 standard deviations below normal) will sink south. However, for now the event appears to be more of a rain maker for the local area. More details to come on this feature now that the balloon soundings are able to sample it.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. VFR through the period as high pressure builds east across the region. Clear skies expected for most of the period with high clouds approaching by the end of the period. Southwest winds up to 10-14 kts through the period.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely in rain Monday, then transitioning to snow from west to east Monday night and Tuesday. Lake effect snow with non VFR continues into Wednesday for CLE/ERI.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM for Pennsylvania waters of Lake Erie. Winds will continue to back back to southwesterly as high pressure builds up the Ohio Valley. Latest reports indicate choppy conditions continue but waves will come down through the evening.

On Monday low pressure originating from the Gulf Coast will deepen as it tracks north to Pennsylvania, continuing north to near Lake Ontario on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed as early as Monday as this low approaches on the west half of the Lake, expanding to the remainder of the lake later Tuesday. Westerly winds are expected to increase to 30 knots by Tuesday but currently have them forecast to remain below Gales. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through Thursday when winds and waves finally relax.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC/Greenawalt SHORT TERM . Jamison LONG TERM . Jamison AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Jamison


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMPO1 29 mi90 min SW 8.9 G 14
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 29 mi60 min 40°F 1018.5 hPa (-0.0)25°F
TWCO1 31 mi40 min SW 16 G 19 38°F 30°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 40 mi60 min SW 16 G 19 42°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 42 mi60 min 40°F 44°F1018.4 hPa (-0.0)26°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi60 min SW 8.9 G 13 39°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 49 mi75 min SW 2.9 37°F 1019 hPa29°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi67 minSW 810.00 miFair37°F28°F70%1020.5 hPa
Findlay, Findlay Airport, OH21 mi67 minSW 710.00 miFair36°F27°F70%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12W8W4W4CalmSW4W3SW4SW3SW5SW4SW7SW8SW8SW10SW13SW12SW9S7SW6SW5SW6SW7SW8
1 day agoSW3SW4SW5SW8SW8W9W6W10W7SW6W9W5W7W7SW9SW10SW11SW8SW7SW6SW7SW6W6W14
2 days agoS7SW5SW8W10W9SW8W14
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W12W10W11W8SW10--SW7SW7SW6SW6SW6SW5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.