Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Risingsun, OH

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 10:45 PM EST (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 933 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 40 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:201912110915;;168217 FZUS51 KCLE 110233 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 933 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-110915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Risingsun, OH
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location: 41.27, -83.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 110238 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 938 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will briefly build northeast through the Ohio valley across the area tonight. A cold front will push southeast through the Great Lakes into the area on Wednesday. High pressure will quickly return to the area, building east across the region Wednesday night, becoming centered over the east coast Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A little ripple is showing up in the radar imagery at this time over the western half of Lake Erie. This ripple is the result of a weak trough moving east across the area and will cause the lake effect snow band to shift north over the next few hours. Latest short term models suggest another band will develop along the shore later this evening into the early morning and then the whole thing will shift north of the area by morning. Looking at total snow accumulations in the band of 4 to 6 inches. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Will keep winter weather advisory in effect where it is currently. Starting to see some clearing pushing in from the west at this time and high clouds will continue to push off to the east overnight and will see a gradual reduction in cloud cover over the southern areas. Cold air advection will take place overnight and with clearing will see temperatures in the 20s for lows.

Previous Discussion .

A weakening surface trough over Lake Erie will attempt to push southward into northern OH and northwest PA late this afternoon into this evening, while pressure rises continue northeastward through the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes. A modest band of snow has formed ahead of this trough over the lake, and is expected to push onshore over the next several hours, perhaps dropping a quick 1-3 inches of snow. Confidence is low on the exact evolution of this snow and lake effect/lake enhancement through tonight across the snow belt. Hi-res guidance continues to depict the surface trough pushing southeast across the snow belt and weakening, with secondary shoreline convergence setting up northeast of Cleveland, which seems to be playing out with latest radar trends. The models depict one or two lake bands becoming dominant and pushing onshore across the snow belt, with several models favoring a band into northern Geauga/Lake and another into Erie PA.

The current evolution on radar is a bit off from the model depictions spatially and timing wise, but generally on the right track. It seems the potential for heaviest snowfall will occur over the next 4-5 hours, with lingering synoptic forcing coinciding with good moisture from 900-750mb. However, dendritic growth will be minimal with the best lift centered much lower in the cloud layer, and some fairly dry air in the lowest 3kft. Instability parameters are marginal as well, with lake induced inversion heights peaking around 8-8.5 kft. After 00Z, drier 925mb air will work south across the lake, which could limit snowfall as well. Overall, kept the forecast fairly similar to the previous, with accumulations centered a touch farther north in the 2-4 inch range through tonight. Some higher amounts up to 5 inches by tomorrow morning are possible in the higher terrain of Erie PA. For now, with lower confidence in the evolution of this snow, will not issue any headlines and will monitor closely for the next several hours to see how the bands are organizing.

Snow bands will diminish and push offshore around/after midnight as boundary layer flow begins to back more southwest, with continued drying of the cloud layer. By tomorrow morning, the flow should keep any bands offshore into western NY through at least midday. An upper vort max and accompanying surface front will quickly drop southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. This now appears to be a relative glancing blow for the local area, but enough of a cold punch to reactivate lake effect into the local area, mainly northwest PA. A brief shot of 850mb moisture will follow this wave passage, with winds veering a bit more northwest Wednesday night. Dry air looks to quickly work back across the region, so the snow potential should be limited temporally. Currently forecasting an additional 1-3 inches, with the highest amounts in eastern Erie PA. Snow will quickly diminish after midnight as high pressure build across the region.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Thursday with models showing broad high pressure centered over Pennsylvania. To our west, low pressure will be in western Iowa. This low will move northeast to the central Great Lakes and dissipate by Friday morning lifting a warm front northeast through the region as the high moves off the New England coast. Another low will move into the Dakotas. This low will move into the western lakes Friday into Saturday as another disturbance generates a coastal low in New England from the mid Atlantic coast. Moisture will return north into the region Friday with return flow out of the southeastern states with rain chances into mainly eastern Ohio and nwrn PA by Friday afternoon. Moisture deepens from the south Friday night into Saturday. Will have pops increase to likely for the eastern half of the area Friday night and Saturday. Precip may mix with a little snow late on Saturday far west but precip should be mostly rain. Highs Thursday in the mid 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. By Sunday, models show a dominant surface low over northern New England tracking northeast into Canada. To our west, high pressure will be moving east from Minnesota into Wisconsin. Between the two, a cold front will be forced south through the area during the day Sunday. Models begin to differ Sunday night with the ECMWF continuing to bring cold air in the the region while the GFS begins to warm advect. For now will side more with the ECMWF and continue the threat of mainly lake induced precip nern OH and nwrn PA. The ECMWF does eventually show this warm advection increasing into the area Monday into Tuesday ahead of low pressure moving through the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley with moisture increasing across the area out of the southeast. Will keep pops in the chance category for now and go with mostly snow showers monday and a mix Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Lake effect snow band developed along the Lake Erie shorline into Lake, Ashtabula and Erie counties. This band should persist through much of the night with the heaviest snow through 1 AM in the morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected over the rest of the area overnight. Some light snow expected at Akron-Canton and Youngstown tonight as well. Winds will be gusty to 25 knots at times in the squalls near the lake but around 10 to 12 knots elsewhere. Expecting winds to increase again tomorrow at 15 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible through Thursday with snow showers and low ceilings, especially in the northeast Snow Belt. Non- VFR possible Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. Winds increase by late morning across the east end of the lake with low end gales likely into the afternoon. So with that said we will go ahead and hoist the gale warning now from Conneaut into the NY open waters. The warning will go from 9 am through 7 pm.

Previous Discussion . Will extend the small craft advisory across the western half of Lake Erie through 4am Thursday. Winds this afternoon have remained near the 20 knot range on the western basin and are not expected to decrease significantly overnight before possibly rising a few knots on Wednesday. Would have needed on for Wednesday anyway so will just leave headline up. Also, for now, will continue with the gale watch as is and allow later shifts to get another model run in. At this time, current guidance touches gale force for a few hours from about noon through 22Z or so. For Wednesday night, winds will begin to diminish as high pressure begins to build in from the west. The high will cross the lake Wednesday evening causing winds to drop to under 10 knots by morning. The high will move to our east Thursday as low pressure approaches the western lakes driving southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots. Southerly flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday before increasing Saturday night into Sunday from the west to 15 to 25 knots as deep low pressure moves through New England and high pressure moves into the western lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ012- 014-089. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001- 002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ149. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ149-169.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . TK/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 29 mi46 min W 8.9 G 14 1025.2 hPa (+1.8)
CMPO1 29 mi76 min W 13 G 17 23°F
TWCO1 31 mi16 min W 20 G 24
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 40 mi46 min W 21 G 25 25°F 1025.5 hPa (+1.9)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 40 mi106 min WSW 22 G 25 25°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 42 mi52 min WSW 7 G 15 23°F 38°F1024.5 hPa13°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi46 min W 11 G 17 24°F 1023.4 hPa (+2.1)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 49 mi61 min WSW 5.1 24°F 1025 hPa14°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi53 minW 1110.00 miFair21°F12°F71%1026.6 hPa
Findlay, Findlay Airport, OH21 mi53 minW 910.00 miFair21°F12°F71%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS10S8S10S8S11S12S12S14S10S11S12S13S14S14SW14
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2 days agoSE6SE5CalmS7S8S3S5S6S8S10S8S13SW13S11SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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