Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Risingsun, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) A potent system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms to the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The potential for all severe hazards exist.

2) An active weather pattern will present multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms throughout the week.

3) Above average temperatures are expected to persist.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Although this week will be fairly active weather wise, models are beginning to suggest that there is an elevated risk for strong to severe weather specifically on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Looking at the overall set up, there will be a deepening trough over the western US that begins to pivot as a relatively weak cold front begins to sag south across the Great Lakes region. On the leading edge of the aforementioned trough, ample WAA will persist with deep layer moisture streaming over the region. By the late afternoon hours on Tuesday, a strong LLJ of 40-50 knots will nudge across the CWA which will provide additional support along the boundary which should ultimately become the focus of convection.
Modeled hodographs and soundings suggest that initial storms could be isolated and have supercell features before merging into a more linear line. Given this, all hazards are possible with a non-zero chance of tornadoes. Will have to continue to monitor the evolution of this system once it gets within the hi-res guidance time frame to pinpoint more specifically timing and hazard concerns.

Confidence in severe weather on Tuesday into the overnight hours is medium at best as of this forecast update. The uncertainty in this event comes from the fact that there will be showers Monday night into Tuesday morning and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in how the lingering showers/cloud cover may impact the threat later in the day. Current models suggest ample destabilization occurring with MLCAPE increasing to 1000 to 2000 J/kg by the afternoon, but if clouds linger the cap may be much more difficult to overcome. As of now, SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 3 Marginal Risk with a small sliver near the Toledo Metro in a Slight Risk. In addition, WPC has highlighted portions of NW OH in a Marginal Day 3 ERO.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Dry conditions are expected to persist today before a very active weather pattern brings the potential for showers and storms almost everyday going forward. Multiple shortwave troughs embedded in a larger deepening trough will impact the area, providing support for multiple surface lows and associated boundaries. These system should remain progressive in nature, moving quickly across the region.
Aside from the above notes about severe weather potential late Tuesday, there will be additional periods of storm potential, especially in the afternoon and evenings when destabilization is most likely. Given the persist WAA and general south-southwesterly flow, PWAT values look to remain in the 1-1.5" range which will likely allow for efficient rainfall within the heaviest showers.
Heavy rain may pose a localized flooding concern given the heavy rains over the last couple weeks, but not expecting any widespread concern given the progressive nature of the systems.

In addition to the severe potential, there will also be multiple days where gusty winds will be possible given strong LLJs that push north in the area. Gusts should be limited overnight unless decoupling occurs. In the current forecast, the strongest synoptic winds are expected Monday into Monday night with gusty winds possible during the afternoon for the remainder of the week. Moral of the story, the weather will be very active in the coming week, but don't expect everyday to be a complete wash out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Spring looks to stick around into the near future as above average temperatures are expected to persist through this forecast period and beyond. Current forecasted high temperatures through this week will remain in the 70s with overnight lows cooling into the 60s.
Looking past this week, CPC has highlighted the entire area in the 8- 14 day temperature outlook for temperatures to likely be above normal.

As reference, the average high for this time of year is in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
The main aviation weather concerns for this TAF update will be the gusty southwest winds and non-convective low level wind shear overnight. Overall VFR ceilings are expected to continue for this TAF period. There may be some MVFR ceilings that move in early Monday morning between 12z and 18z for TOL, FDY, and MFD. Winds will remain from the south to southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts between 25 and 30 knots over the next 24 hours.
We have mentioned the potential for some low level wind shear due to a strong low level jet overnight between 02z and 09z at all TAF sites. There also could be some scattered light rain showers or sprinkles late tonight but do not think it will cause any impacts to flight categories.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

MARINE
South to southwest winds increase to 20-25 knots overnight as a trough passes north of the lake and a 40-50 knot low level jet moves overhead. Have issued a short duration Small Craft Advisory for the west end of the lake Midnight - 10AM and eastern half of Lake Erie Midnight - 4PM. Moisture will increase across the region on Monday and there is a low probability of patchy fog developing over the colder waters on the east half. At this time expecting enough wind/mixing to avoid low visibilities but will need to monitor for Monday. We remain in a breezy southwest flow pattern through mid- week as several systems track out of the Plains across the Upper Great Lakes. Chances of thunderstorms are also in the forecast through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149.