Monday, March30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:15PM Monday March 30, 2020 9:16 AM EDT (13:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 533 Am Edt Mon Mar 30 2020
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late this morning. Chance of showers early this afternoon, then showers likely late.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 533 Am Edt Mon Mar 30 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure southeast of Montauk point tracks east while gradually strengthening through Tuesday. Meanwhile another low well to the northwest will weaken into a trough as it approaches through tonight, and merge with the offshore low. Yet another low will pass well to the south during mid week, followed by high pressure for late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 301155 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 755 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure is southeast of Long Island this morning. Meanwhile a low over upstate NY weakens and brings a trough through on Monday. A backdoor cold front approaches on Tuesday morning, and yet another low will pass well south and east during mid week, followed by high pressure for late week. A cold front will approach next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Cloud cover grids adjusted this morning to account for more widespread coverage that previously forecast. All else looks to be on track.

Previous discussion .

A surface low is located southeast of Long Island this morning along a stationary front. Northeast flow is dominating with low clouds over much of the region, as the low pulls away form the coast. Northeast winds have stayed up as a result keeping fog development to a minimum through early morning.

An upper level vortex and associated surface low passes north of the area and weakens somewhat by this afternoon. This upper low will move northeast as energy rotates around its southern periphery and redevelops off the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday. At the surface, a trough accompanies the upper system and approaches the local area by Monday afternoon. An additional surface low develops along this trough, and moves offshore by Tuesday morning. Clouds will hang in for much of Monday as a result along with increasing shower chances by afternoon. The question is whether or not lift from the upper low and cold pool instability are sufficient enough Monday afternoon for any convection to impact the area. The latest runs of the high resolution CAMs are supportive of convection developing northwest of the area along the surface trough by early afternoon and approaching northwest zones by late afternoon. Model soundings in the interior indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some shear, so this will have to be watched. For now kept thunder out of the forecast, and shower chances will remain until Tuesday morning as the aforementioned surface low pulls away. Precipitation amounts of a few tenths are likely with any showers that do develop. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s under the cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/. As the upper low redevelops off the coast, a weak backdoor cold front moves through the area by Tuesday morning, keeping clouds and light showers in the forecast through the early afternoon. Shower chances should decrease by late Tuesday as weak high pressure begins to build in by Wednesday.

Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A coastal storm will eject off the southeast U.S. coast and track well south and east of the region by Thursday. Dry conditions are therefore expected through then.

As the storm intensifies and expands well east of the region Thursday night, the western edge of the precipitation field will move westward toward our area. Some vorticity maxima may move through aloft, as well as spokes of surface troughs rotating around the low which will aid in the possibility for showers, but right now, looks to only be a slight chance for extreme eastern areas late Thursday night into Friday.

Thereafter, a cold front approaches for the weekend, but as of right now, due to uncertainty and light precipitation, only looks to be slight chance from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

High temperatures will be slightly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then slight above normal through the rest of the long term.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure east to southeast of Montauk Point tracks slowly eastward through the forecast period while deepening. Meanwhile another low approaches from the eastern Great Lakes through tonight and gradually weakens, becoming a trough associated with the eastern low.

The forecast is low confidence with uncertainty mainly with the winds.

MVFR, locally IFR this morning east of the NYC terminals, will become VFR early this afternoon. Conditions lower back to MVFR this evening. Scattered showers are possible much of the day with the best chance late this afternoon into early this evening with a rumble of thunder possible.

Low confidence in the wind forecast, as the gradient will remain rather weak. A prolonged period of light and variable winds is likely before winds shift to the north and northeast as the eastern low deepens. Timing of the increasing winds also is low confidence and uncertain.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http://weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

KHPN TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

KISP TAF Comments: High uncertainty with the timing of flight category improvements and the wind speeds and directions.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday. Chance of MVFR in showers. Wednesday-Friday. VFR. NW G15-20kt Thursday and Friday.

MARINE. With a low pressure system moving southeast of the forecast waters early this morning the pressure gradient will be weakening with diminishing winds. Ocean seas will subside somewhat through this morning, however, with an E to SE swell of 5 to 6 ft remaining ocean seas are expected to remain at SCA levels through this evening across the waters west of Fire Island Inlet, and through at least Tuesday to the east, possibly into Wednesday morning.

In addition, a few gusts up to 25 kt are possible late Mon night into Tue morning E of Moriches Inlet as low pressure off to the east strengthens somewhat.

A SCA remains until 03Z Tuesday west of Fire Island Inlet, and the advisory has been extended through Tuesday to the east. The non ocean waters remain below SCA through the period.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.

SYNOPSIS . DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . MET MARINE . MET HYDROLOGY . DBR EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi21 min N 14 G 17 42°F 1012.8 hPa37°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi46 min N 4.1 G 12 42°F 45°F1014.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi46 min 42°F 44°F1015 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi46 min N 2.9 G 9.9 42°F 44°F1015.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 41°F 44°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi21 minN 710.00 miOvercast41°F37°F87%1015.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi20 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast41°F39°F93%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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N106NW5W4NW5N6N7N5N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:12 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:44 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.533.23.12.72.11.40.80.40.30.611.62.12.52.52.31.91.40.90.50.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:45 AM EDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM EDT     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:19 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.31.70.8-0.2-1.2-2.1-2.6-2.4-1.6-0.50.61.521.91.20.4-0.5-1.4-2-2.1-1.5-0.50.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.