Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:36PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 12:31 AM EDT (04:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:05PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the western atlantic as a slow moving frontal system approaches into Tuesday. The front will move across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday with low pressure riding along the boundary. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night. Weak low pressure develops along the frontal boundary Friday and heads northeast followed by high pressure on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 290301 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1101 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic as a slow moving frontal system approaches into Tuesday. The front will move across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday with low pressure riding along the boundary. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night. Weak low pressure develops along the frontal boundary Friday and heads northeast. High pressure builds back in for the weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Forecast remains on track with just some minor changes made to reflect current conditions. Increased the patchy fog coverage and made Eastern New London Connecticut as well as eastern parts of the Twin Forks of Long Island have areas of fog in the forecast. NARRE shows dense fog potential but keeps this mainly east of Montauk NY.

The subsidence left behind by the shortwave will dry out the middle levels. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will eventually become overcast overnight from south to north as low clouds reform. This is due to saturated low levels from southerly flow between the offshore high and slow moving cold front to our west. There is no significant lift for much of the night with dry conditions expected.

Patchy fog is expected overnight, but mixing above the surface may inhibit the fog from becoming widespread or dense. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The cold front will only make slow progress towards the area on Tuesday. The longwave trough axis is still going to lie well to our west as well, with a moist southerly flow out ahead of the trough. Other than some weak impulses within the flow and warm advection, there is no appreciable lift during much of the day. During the late afternoon, PVA aloft increases ahead of a strong vort max rounding the base of the upper trough. This is when higher PoPs in the likely category are supported across the NW interior. Otherwise, while there may be some showers around at times, no widespread activity is expected through early evening. Some locations may remain dry for much of the daylight hours. Will have to watch for fog to linger across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut given the moist southerly flow. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s, several degrees above normal.

Precipitable waters are progged to be near 2 inches Tuesday night ahead of the front. Large scale lift ahead of the strong vort max increases significantly through the night. Widespread showers, moderate to heavy at times will move across the area from west to east Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A wave of low pressure will also develop along the front Tuesday evening and lift north across the region through early Wednesday morning. This will help enhance some of the rainfall. Interestingly, the 12z model guidance is in good agreement that the heaviest rain will lie across the Lower Hudson Valley and Interior of SW Connecticut. However, models tend to struggle on rainfall placement and this could change in future runs as the event evolves. The overall environment supports a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. The timing of the heaviest showers is likely to be around midnight through early Wednesday morning, with the showers largely ending by midday. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat as conditions have been dry and flash flood guidance is quite high.

No thunder has been included in the forecast due to lack of instability noted in forecast soundings.

There may also be some gusty winds near the coast Wednesday morning immediately ahead of the front and then as the front passes. Winds will shift from southerly to west-southwest by afternoon as the low lifts up through New England and then southeast Canada. Improving conditions in the afternoon should lead to some sun and temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 with drier air working into the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The biggest change with this section of the forecast is that the models have come more in line with a second low no longer impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday. A dry slot will move through our area into New England as surface low pressure over southeastern Canada continues moving north and the cold front continues moving east of the area. Thus, have significantly lowered POPs and rainfall amounts during this time frame.

Another weak shortwave trough aloft, along with a cold front at the surface, will round the base of the upper level longwave trough (which remains in place or gets reinforced through the beginning of next week) Friday morning into Friday night. A weak area of low pressure may develop off the northern mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning and move just south of Long Island into Friday night as it tracks northeast along the frontal boundary. It looks as though light to briefly moderate rain is possible with this system, but nothing heavy at this time.

High pressure builds in for the weekend before another frontal boundary may impact the region next Monday. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty with this system and the potential for an area of low pressure to move up the East Coast.

As for temperatures, with an upper level trough over the area, and 850 hPa temperatures starting out at around 7 C on Thursday drop to between 4 to 7 C into the weekend and the beginning of next week, expect near normal temperatures on Thursday transitioning to seasonably cool by Friday and should continue into Monday.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front approaches the region from the west through Tuesday and eventually moves within the region Tuesday night.

Mainly VFR tonight with increasing MVFR to IFR stratus developing overnight into daybreak Tuesday. KGON expected to have IFR much of the overnight period with KISP and KBDR as well as KHPN expected to have IFR stratus after 07Z Tuesday. Fog is also expected to develop late tonight but will be mostly patchy with visibilities down to around 2 to 3 miles.

By early Tuesday in a 10-14Z timeframe, IFR potential will be across all terminals. Expecting all ceilings to be low end MVFR to high end IFR (ceilings of around 700 to 1200 ft). With the exception of NYC terminals and KSWF, expecting just minor improvement to MVFR. For NYC terminals and KSWF have a brief improvement late morning into afternoon with VFR.

However, rain shower chances will be increasing late morning into the afternoon, which could easily drop the category back down to MVFR at times. Rain showers become more steady and relatively heavier towards Tuesday night with widespread MVFR to localized IFR expected.

Winds will generally be S at around 5-10 kt tonight and then near 10-15 kt for the remainder of the TAF period.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty . Amendments will be likely as timing of categorical changes could vary by a few hours compared to TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. MVFR to localized IFR with rain showers. Heavy rain possible at times. LLWS late with S-SW winds 40-50 kt at 2kft. S winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, highest east of NYC terminals. Wednesday. MVFR/IFR with rain showers. Heavy rain possible early. LLWS early with S-SW winds 40-50 kt at 2kft. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, highest east of NYC terminals and highest in the morning. Thursday. Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Friday. MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Saturday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Ocean seas will remain 3 to 4 ft through Tuesday morning. Increasing southerly flow out ahead of a cold front will build seas to around 5 ft in the afternoon and then 6 to 8 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds on the waters should stay 20 kt or less through Tuesday and then increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front and wave of low pressure moves across the waters. Have issued an SCA on the ocean beginning 2 pm Tuesday and it runs through 6 pm Wednesday. While winds may gust to around 25 kt on LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor, have held off on issuing an SCA here for now.

5 to 8 ft waves on the ocean waters will slowly diminish Wednesday night and 5+ ft waves could linger into Thursday night, especially for the central and easter ocean zones. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through Saturday night.

Winds will generally remain below 25 kt through Saturday night as well. There is the possibility of touching 25 kt during the day Thursday for the eastern ocean zone. However, as of now, it only looks to be occasional.

HYDROLOGY. A slow moving frontal boundary and a wave of low pressure will bring significant rainfall late Tuesday into early Wednesday Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Due to dry antecedent conditions, the relatively long duration of the event, and high flash flood guidance, no significant flooding is anticipated. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat.

Light to moderate rainfall is possible Friday into Friday night, but nothing heavy is expected at this time. Therefore, flooding is not anticipated through Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/DS NEAR TERM . JM/JP/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JM MARINE . JP/DS HYDROLOGY . JP/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 7 67°F 68°F1013.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi44 min 66°F 67°F1014.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi44 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 69°F1014.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi22 min S 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 67°F1014.8 hPa66°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi44 min S 5.1 G 7 69°F 71°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi77 minS 57.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1014.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi36 minS 72.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----S7--S8------SE6S8S4
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1 day agoCalm--CalmCalm--Calm----------S5S4--S5S6--S8SE4SE3--SE5SE5SE5
2 days agoCalmCalm--CalmCalm------CalmSE4SE5SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:47 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:58 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:12 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.60.90.40.20.51.11.92.73.33.43.22.71.91.20.60.40.51.11.82.63.23.53.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     2.67 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:42 PM EDT     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     2.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.4-3-2.9-2.2-10.61.92.52.62.21.1-0.4-1.9-2.8-2.9-2.4-1.40.11.52.42.72.41.50.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.