Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:22PM Monday December 9, 2019 1:30 PM EST (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 1 ft. Snow likely in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift to the north of all area waters by tonight. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 091813 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach tonight into Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. It appears that warm front has moved across much of the region. The warm front is expected to move north of the entire region late this afternoon with all locations getting a more southerly wind by mid to late afternoon.

Rain will continue developing and spreading into the area this afternoon. Two areas of rain, one moving across Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut and a larger area starting to move into Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Many areas have 1-4 sm visibility. Patchy fog is in the forecast as well.

Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon.

Temps on the mild side today, with highs in the 50s most places, upper 50s across eastern Long Island, mid to upper 40s in western Orange.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Warm front should continue to lift north tonight, with a round of moderate-heavy rain likely for much of Long Island and SE CT.

Winds are a tricky forecast. Could see gusts 40-45 mph across the forks and the SE CT coast this evening, but an inversion may work to prevent stronger winds aloft from reaching the sfc except in heavier precip. Will handle via shorter fused products rather than issue wind advy.

Upper dynamics shift north of the area tonight. The warm front should also lift north as the parent low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast around or just after midnight. Deep moisture and stronger forcing for ascent shift to the north and east after midnight with the rain tapering off from southwest to northeast. PoP drops off significantly overnight, but cannot completely rule out some lingering light showers. Showers pick up in coverage again Tue afternoon as a cold front enters the area.

Rainfall amounts through tonight look to range from about 1-1.5 inches, locally closer to 2 inches in SE CT.

Temperatures will continue on the mild side, with temps remaining steady or only falling a couple of degrees tonight, then another mild day expected on Tue, with highs from the 50s to lower 60s, before quickly falling back into the 40s north/west..

Fog potential appears low at this time. However, it bears watching with dewpoints in the lower/mid 50s moving over SSTs in the upper 40s ad lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Main impacts/forecast challenges this time frame will be post frontal precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the next system over the weekend. Much depends on placement of upper jet, and eventual evolution of the upper level trough during the mid week period.

Did not make too many changes to the long term period, Based on 00Z models. A lingering upper trough and placement of upper jet should result in a continuation of post frontal precip Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A transition from rain to snow will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as colder air advects in NW to SE. With lingering QPF of a quarter to a third of an inch around the time of transition, 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible across the area. Reasonable worst case scenario of around 6 inches is possible in spots away from the immediate coast. There is still plenty of time for change, so stay tuned.

Drier weather returns Wednesday afternoon through Friday as high pressure builds over the area. Expect Thursday to be cold with temperatures around or just above freezing.

WAA precip may arrive late Friday or Friday night from the south, but model differences in upstream trough remain, so confidence in exact forecast details such as timing and coverage of precip remains low. At this time, would generally expect wet weather Saturday (mainly rain), and possibly into Sunday although dry air advecting in from the west should result in lower rain chances Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to above normal late week and next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front over the Midwest will slowly approach the area through 18Z Tuesday.

Mainly IFR or lower through the TAF period. The next batch of rain approaching from the southwest impacts the area into the evening. Conditions transition into spotty drizzle or light rain overnight into Tuesday, with another band of rain possible closer to the frontal boundary after 15Z.

There could be significant variations in visibility, especially through tonight. Fog and drizzle could result 1/2SM or less overnight, but it was too uncertain to include in the TAFs based on the strength of the expected winds.

Winds will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt through at least 02Z. Strongest winds along the coast and ern areas. Winds veering to the southwest and slightly lighter on Tuesday.

LLWS at all terminals through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Rest of Tuesday. Winds shift to the northwest behind the cold front. Rain transitions to snow from northwest to southeast. Wednesday. IFR or lower possible in snow, especially in the morning. Winds generally below 10 kt with direction variable at times. Thursday. VFR Friday. VFR becoming IFR overnight with rain or a wintry mix developing. LLWS possible late. Saturday. IFR with rain. LLWS possible.

MARINE. SCA in effect for all waters. Main push of stronger winds to the east today, and gusts in S-SW flow getting close but not quite to 35 kt except on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Gale warning starts on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Rest of ocean, gale warning starts tonight. Gales remain on ocean until Tuesday morning and SCA remains on non-ocean waters until Tuesday morning. Gales subside Tuesday with SCA remaining on the ocean. Tuesday expected to be below SCA on non-ocean waters.

The front passes through the area Tuesday night with marginal SCA gusts possible Wednesday into Thursday morning in a W-NW flow. Seas however will remain above 5 ft through this period, so SCAs can be expected on the ocean.

Winds diminish and seas subside quite a bit Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

There is the potential for another storm system to impact the waters at the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. A long duration precipitation event is expected today through Wednesday. The precipitation today through Tuesday will be in the form of plain rain. The precipitation transitions to frozen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent precipitation of 1 to 2 inches is forecast. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding may occur on this afternoon and tonight when the heaviest rain falls.

Next significant rain of at least a half an inch is expected by the weekend. Too early to ascertain hydrologic impacts.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353- 355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ353-355. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . BC/Goodman NEAR TERM . Goodman/JM SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . MARINE . BC/Goodman/JM HYDROLOGY . BC/Goodman EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi16 min S 19 G 21 53°F 990.5 hPa51°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi49 min S 11 G 13 49°F 47°F1016.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi49 min 55°F 45°F1017.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi43 min S 11 G 13 49°F 41°F1014.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi49 min SSW 8 G 13

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi36 minS 14 G 241.25 miRain55°F55°F100%1015.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi95 minS 192.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy53°F52°F96%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4S3S5S4S4S4S55S4S34SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S14S17
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1 day agoNW9NW104
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NW5NW6NW5NW5NW8CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5S5S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:58 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:07 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:49 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.40.20.411.72.53.23.53.532.31.50.70.20.10.30.91.62.22.72.82.52

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM EST     2.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:17 PM EST     -3.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:40 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:24 PM EST     2.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-2.1-1.201.32.32.62.21.40.3-1.2-2.4-3.1-2.9-2.1-0.90.51.72.42.41.80.9-0.4-1.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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