Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday January 23, 2020 2:59 PM EST (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun and Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the waters today, then a weak cold front crosses the waters tonight followed by high pres building to the north Fri. Low pres will move ne from the mid atlc region Sat, tracking across southern new eng Sat night then into maine on Sun. The low pres will move into the maritimes Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point borough, CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 231932 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 232 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. One area of high pressure moves offshore tonight. A second high moves from Eastern Canada to the Maritimes for Friday. This will bring dry weather through Friday night. A storm is expected to impact the region Saturday into Saturday night with mostly rain and gusty coastal winds, but some snow is possible over the higher elevations in northern MA. Mainly dry and seasonable conditions return Sunday lasting into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

High pressure along the USA East Coast will shift offshore tonight. Winds will become light and variable as a weak cold front moves south through Northern New England. The high will maintain sufficient subsidence to maintain fair dry weather tonight.

Min sfc temps were partly based on model guidance, and partly on expected dew points. The general range was from the mid teens inland to around 30 on the Cape and Islands.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

The weak cold front moves south of Southern New England Friday morning. Surface winds turn out of the northeast by afternoon. Meanwhile, northern stream high pressure moves over the Maritimes. This high pressure and its subsidence will maintain dry weather through Friday and Friday night.

Northeast surface flow off the Gulf of Maine has the potential to bring low clouds ashore, especially across Eastern and Central MA and into RI. There is potential for the low clouds to reach CT and Western MA, but with less confidence. The forecast draws upon the NAM Nest and other short-range models to show low clouds, and is adjusted to show 4-6 mile vsbys in fog rather than vsbys down to zero as shown in the guidance.

Temperatures in the shallow mixed layer show potential for max values in the 40s. Temperatures Friday night dip to the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Coastal storm this weekend initially bringing a cold rain for much of southern New England. Best opportunity for snowfall is across the highest elevations of the interior where things begin as a wintry mix before transitioning to rain.

* Scattered snow showers across the region late on Sunday into early Monday, then dry through mid week.

* Slightly cooler temperatures after the weekend.

Details .

Saturday and Sunday .

Again with the trend, unfortunate for snow lovers, toward the north and west with the track of this weekend's storm system. Signs point more and more to a cold rain for the majority of southern New England on Saturday. Confidence is very high that a soaking storm system arrives over the weekend, while chances of snow outside of the highest elevations are decreasing. A 500 mb trough and surface low will dig into the mid Atlantic on Saturday. A secondary low along the frontal boundary strengthens as it crosses over southern New England (or even potentially northern New England if some of the newest guidance has anything to say about it). Further up at 700 mb where yesterday the low center looked to cross directly over southern New England it now has trended northward, crossing northern New England. As a result, the bulk of the cold air we would need to see more snow is too far north. At the moment the most likely solution on the front end of the event looks to be a cold rain for most, with a rain/snow mix in interior lower elevations, and snow in the highest elevations of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Things will then change to rain as the low pulls in warmer low level air and this will continue into the overnight hours. By early overnight hours the dry slot moves into the region and erodes the heaviest rain from the west through the overnight hours so by sunrise most of the precip will have fallen. There is potential for a significant rainfall (QPF values from 1 PM Sat to 7 am Sunday approach 1.25 or 1.5 inches in spots). A few inches of snow in the highest elevations of the Berkshires is possible but totals continue to be lowered.

Sunday the low lifts into the Gulf of Maine and colder air will wrap back around the low, but the bulk of the moisture is gone by then so most will stay dry. Some scattered light snow showers are possible; best chance will be the orographically favored western MA/CT. No real accumulation is expected except up to an inch in the Berkshires perhaps. Winds with this system will be gusty, picking up on Saturday afternoon/evening with gusts 25 to 30 mph possible, closer to 40 mph along the southeast coast. Gale headlines may be necessary over the waters where gusts will be even greater.

Monday through Wednesday .

Drying out Monday and into midweek. The low is slow it exit thanks in part to an area of high pressure off the coast of eastern Canada. However, it eventually moves off and is replaced by high pressure with drier air moving in. We're looking at partly sunny skies for the first half of the work week with cooler temperatures, but still warmer than normal. Monday is the warmest in the low 40s before highs cool a few degrees Tues/Wed.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. SW wind 10 kt or less today becoming light N after midnight.

Friday . VFR to start. Winds turn out of the northeast 10 kt by afternoon. This may draw an area of MVFR cigs into Eastern MA during mid to late afternoon.

Friday night .

MVFR cigs and possible 4-5 mile vsbys in fog. Dry weather.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA, chance SN, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

SW flow becomes light and variable. Winds turn out of the north late tonight behind a cold front. Northeast flow on Friday and Friday night. Seas remain below 5 feet, but may approach 5 feet on the outer waters late Friday night.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/BW NEAR TERM . WTB/BW SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . WTB/BW MARINE . WTB/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi50 min WSW 12 G 14 39°F 1024.8 hPa27°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi60 min 41°F 40°F1027.3 hPa (-2.4)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi60 min 40°F 38°F1028.1 hPa (-2.2)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi66 min 43°F 37°F1027.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi60 min 40°F 34°F1027.3 hPa (-2.3)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi75 min SSW 5.1 46°F 1027 hPa23°F
PRUR1 42 mi60 min 41°F 31°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi60 min 44°F 1027.9 hPa (-2.1)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi60 min 41°F 39°F1027.3 hPa (-2.1)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi60 min 47°F 37°F1027.2 hPa (-2.3)
PVDR1 47 mi60 min 47°F 1027.4 hPa (-2.3)13°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi60 min 39°F 37°F1027 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi64 minSW 1210.00 miFair40°F24°F53%1027.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi67 minSW 810.00 miFair44°F21°F40%1027.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi66 minNW 5 mi42°F28°F58%1028.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi64 minW 810.00 miFair41°F28°F60%1028.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW7W6NW5W3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmN5N3CalmCalmSW5SW8SW9SW12
1 day agoN4NW9N5NW3NW4CalmN3N5NW7N4CalmN3NW6CalmN3N3N4N4N3N4NW4S8S6SW6
2 days agoN12N13NW12NW7NW8NW9NW6NW6NW7NW7NW7NW7NW5NW5N7N9N4N6N11N11N7N7N7N6

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:45 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:34 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.100.311.62.22.62.72.521.50.90.3-0.2-0.20.20.71.21.71.91.81.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     2.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     -3.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST     2.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.8-2.4-1.5-0.11.42.52.92.61.80.4-1.2-2.6-3.4-3.3-2.5-1.20.41.82.62.72.31.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.