Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 21, 2019 4:17 PM EST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 354 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon and Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 354 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front pushes across the waters Friday with a period of gusty winds for the waters late Friday into Friday night. Another weather system passes to our south over the weekend, bringing another period of possible gales into Sunday. High pressure builds across the waters on Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point borough, CT
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 212058 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 358 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle over Southern New England today with mostly sunny and seasonable weather conditions. Mild and gusty Friday as a cold front swings through New England. Colder air moves in behind the front Friday night. Weak high pressure brings dry weather Saturday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain to much of our area late Saturday night and Sunday. Portions of Northwest MA may start as mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain before changing to rain. High pressure brings drier weather Sunday night through Tuesday. A cold front may bring showers Wednesday, followed by dry weather again for Thanksgiving.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/.

345 PM Update .

Visible satellite shows some high clouds from a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes spreading into Western MA this afternoon. This is the system that will produce a cold front that will swing through SNE tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, warm air advection will lead to a non-diurnal temperature trend this evening. The low-level jet increases overnight, with 850mb winds increasing to 40 kts by daybreak. Bufkit soundings suggest some momentum transfer to the surface by early to mid morning, with wind gusts of up to 25 kts. Temperatures would initially drop into the mid 30s interior to low 40s near the coast early evening. But with warm air advection and low level jet strengthening, temperatures would rise a few degrees into the low 40s in the interior to upper 40s near the coast by daybreak on Fri. Clouds will also thicken overnight, becoming mostly cloudy by staying mostly dry by Fri morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

Friday:

Most of Fri morning is expected to stay dry. Despite limited insolation from a thick cloud cover, warm air advection will allow most areas outside NW MA and interior higher elevations to warm into the mid 50s. I would not be surprised to see a few locations, especially in RI and SE MA reach the upper 50s, especially if there are peeks of sunshine. It will also be breezy, with SW winds of 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Most model guidance supports the cold front reaching our western counties by around 18z, then racing quickly towards the coast and offshore by around 22-00z. Considering both the limited moisture available and progressive nature of the front, think that most areas will see no more than a tenth of an inch of precip. Moreover, due to the lack of cold air, all the precip is expected to fall as rain. Cannot rule out a few wet flakes mixed in in the higher elevations of the East Slopes of the Berkshires but no accumulations expected. Temperatures fall quickly behind the cold front, with 30s in the interior and 40s by early evening. Most areas will fall below freezing, with mid 20s in the interior and upper 20s/low 30s in Eastern MA and RI. The exceptions are the immediate coast and the Cape, which fall into the mid 30s.

The main headline is, however, the strong NW winds, especially over the waters from Fri afternoon to late Fri night/early Sat morning. The cold air advection will help mix stronger winds to the surface. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 kts with gusts of 35-40 kts. Some interior locations, especially higher elevations of the East Slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills may reach Wind Advisory criteria. But these are expected to be scattered in nature so currently don't have the confidence for issuance. Therefore, have issued Gale Warnings for all waters during this period. As a result of the strong winds, wind chills will be in the teens in the interior and 20s in the coastal areas late Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Upper flow is initially split between northern and southern branches. But this evolves by Sunday to a single jet moving through a broad trough centered over North America. Five-wave scale starts with a trough over the Eastern USA and a ridge over the West Coast. The pattern shift west by next week with the five-wave trough over the Rockies and a West Atlantic ridge backing toward the USA East coast.

Heights at 500 mb vary during the period, dropping below normal as east storm moves through, then climbing into the 550s Dm in between. Overall expect the deep layer to reflect near normal temperatures, except colder temps Saturday night and Sunday as a coastal storm moves past.

Confidence is low-moderate Saturday night-Sunday with the coastal storm and Wednesday with timing of a midweek cold front. Higher confidence with the dry weather in between.

Daily Concerns .

Saturday .

Shortwave ridge over the region will provide plenty of subsidence and dry weather. Increasing high level moisture moves into CT and Western MA late in the day, so expect increasing high thin clouds at that time. Mixed layer reaches to about 950 mb, with layer temps supporting surface max temps in the 40s.

Saturday night-Sunday .

Weather system coming out of the Gulf will draw moisture north to New England while pulling colder air south from Canada. The combination of these factors brings wet weather to our area Saturday night and Sunday. The question is how much of the northern stream colder air is drawn over Southern New England. There is no sign of a Maritime high or other source of cold air damming, and no sign of other sauces of cold air drainage. The projected track of the storm has the center moving up along the South Coast, farther north than models showed yesterday and suggesting warmer temperatures farther inland. For now the forecast favors mainly rain, except some snow/sleet in NW Mass that changes to rain by midday Sunday.

Monday through Thanksgiving Day .

High pressure brings dry weather Monday and Tuesday. Mixed layer reaches to 925 mb, where temps will be 0-2C Monday and 3-5C Tuesday. Mixing of those temps to the surface supports max sfc temps in the 40s Monday and lower 50s Tuesday.

A cold front swings through on Wednesday. Current model timing of the cold front is faster than yesterday by 6 to 12 hours. Such run- to-run changes lowers confidence in this timing. Moisture in the column will be limited, so expect scattered showers along and just ahead of the front. Enough of a gradient and cold advection to bring west-northwest gusts to 35 mph Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

One other note: We are coming into a period of high astronomical tides Sunday and Monday. Depending on the wind direction and timing of highest surge, a worst case scenario would bring some minor coastal flooding with the Sunday high tide on either coastline (5.7 ft MLLW at Providence at 541 AM, 11.2 ft MLLW at Boston at 845 AM, and 3.9 ft MLLW at Nantucket at 946 AM). Ensemble guidance from Stevens Institute shows a potential surge of 1.0 to 1.5 ft. Tides are a little higher Monday morning, but by then we should be dealing with offshore (west) flow which should limit the threat.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

18z TAF Update:

This afternoon:

Leftover MVFR CIGS on Cape Cod and Nantucket will diminish by 20Z as N winds gradually subside. Otherwise VFR with N winds backing to W/SW this afternoon.

Tonight:

VFR conditions with increasing cloudiness overnight. Southwest winds 5-10 kts, though increasing SWly low-level jet of 35-40 kts could produce pockets of low-level wind shear/turbulence late tonight into early Friday.

Friday:

Continued lowering to ceilings, but should remain at VFR levels ahead of a cold front. Southwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through early afternoon ahead of the cold front; a brief period of MVFR and scattered showers will accompany the front before a wind shift to NW by late afternoon. NW winds 25-30 kts with gusts of 35-40 kts after 21z.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible after midnight. RA likely, chance FZRA in Western MA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, FZRA likely in Western MA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday Night/ . Moderate confidence.

Extended the small craft advisory for Nantucket Sound to 3pm because of 25 kt wind gusts. Otherwise, winds should then slacken from west to east. Small craft advisories also remain in effect for most offshore waters and Cape Cod Bay into the afternoon.

Seas will tend to slowly subside through tonight with easing winds. The bigger concern for mariners is the cold frontal passage late Friday, expected to bring a period of gale-force WNW winds across the the coastal and outer waters, with the possibility of low-end gales into Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Have therefore hoisted Gale Watches from late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.

Today: NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts early to decrease to 5-10 kts by afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft outer offshore waters, though will tend to lower as the day progresses. Good visibility.

Tonight: Winds become WSW and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts by daybreak Friday. Seas mainly 2-4 ft, though with leftover 5 footers early. Good visibility.

Friday: WSW winds continue to increase to low-end SCA levels (mainly 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts) ahead of a cold front expected to cross the waters late Friday. Wind shift to NW with 20-25 kt winds, gusts 35-40 kts, tending on the lower end of that range in the bays and harbors. Seas build to 5-9 ft, highest southern and southeastern waters. Light showers could bring visibilities down to 4-6 miles late Friday afternoon with FROPA.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain likely.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night for ANZ231>235-237-251. Gale Warning from noon to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . Chai SHORT TERM . Frank/Chai LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Chai MARINE . WTB/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi33 min WSW 7 G 8 49°F 1016.9 hPa32°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi48 min W 2.9 G 6 51°F 53°F1018.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi48 min 46°F 49°F1019.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi54 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 47°F 46°F1018.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi54 min Calm G 0 51°F 46°F1018.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi93 min E 2.9 47°F 1019 hPa33°F
PRUR1 42 mi48 min 49°F 32°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi48 min ESE 1 G 2.9 47°F 1019.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi48 min S 2.9 G 2.9 47°F 48°F1018.7 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi54 min NW 2.9 G 6 50°F 48°F1018.7 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi48 min S 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1018.9 hPa35°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8.9 51°F 47°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi22 minSW 510.00 miFair47°F33°F59%1018.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi25 minSW 410.00 miFair50°F30°F48%1019.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi84 minW 5 mi49°F33°F55%1019.4 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi22 minWSW 610.00 miFair46°F30°F56%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:57 AM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.422.32.52.321.61.20.70.40.30.61.21.82.22.42.42.11.61.20.80.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:01 AM EST     2.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM EST     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:32 PM EST     2.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 PM EST     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.21.22.32.72.41.70.6-0.8-2.1-2.9-2.9-2.2-10.41.72.52.621.1-0.2-1.7-2.8-3.1-2.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.