Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 5:25 PM   Moonset 3:42 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 404 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Wed night and Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Fri night through Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres over the south coastal waters will drift south through Wed with a persistent sw flow setting up over the waters. A cold front moves into new eng Thu, then a second cold front approaches from the north Fri, moving across the waters Fri night. High pres builds over new eng and the waters Sat.

FXUS61 KOKX 201959 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 359 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be in control through Wednesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night and eventually slows down south of Long Island Friday before dissipating. High pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday night into early Saturday. Another low pressure system approaches the area next weekend. A stronger frontal system approaches for early next week

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Deep-layered ridging will be over the region tonight. Mainly clear this evening, then perhaps some cirrus overnight. Models also showing some coastal stratus and/or fog late tonight. Given very light winds from the surface up through the bottom of a low level inversion aloft and low dewpoint depressions, thinking there will patchy/areas of fog for coastal areas. As always, not very high confidence in the areal coverage and density of the fog, but something to keep an eye on tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The ridge aloft flattens Tuesday through Wednesday, but surface high pressure will remain in control. After any early stratus/fog, it should be a mostly sunny day for Tuesday, and mostly sunny for Wednesday as well. Showers well ahead of a pre-frontal trough approach late Wednesday, but will go with a dry forecast through the afternoon.

Regarding high temperatures, deterministic NBM continues to run closer to the 10th and 25th percentiles. Blended the deterministic with the 50th percentile for both days based on forecast temperatures at the top of the mixed layer. Might need to lean even closer to the 50th percentile for Wednesday with a better chance of mixing through 850mb away from the coast given wind direction and weaker subsidence from aloft as ridging flattens. Highs will be above normal both days with Wednesday being the warmer day. No records anticipated, but highs on Wednesday around 90 for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Dewpoints will be low enough to keep heat indices right around the ambient temperature.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The key points pertain to Thursday and Thursday night.

First, another day with well above normal temperatures is anticipated for Thursday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast and across much of Long Island to upper 70s to upper 80s across parts of the north shore of Long Island, NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT.
Some interior spots could have heat indices reach around 90.

Second, there is a low change, marginal, threat for severe thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening with potential for downbursts and perhaps some hail.

High pressure will eventually give way to an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front will be weakening as it moves farther north of the Great Lakes. This will lead thereby to a weakening of the cold front.

High temperatures forecast on Thursday are more in the low 70s to mid 80s range, with a lot of locations forecast to be slightly cooler due to increased clouds. However, some locations on Long Island are actually having high temperatures forecast slightly warmer than the previous day due to a more westerly component to the winds.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front with surface CAPE forecast to be up to near 2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 30 to 35 kt. With these factors, severe threat level is more on the marginal side with the coverage expected to be mostly isolated to scattered of the showers and thunderstorms themselves. This combination is forecast to be across some locations north and west of NYC. No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.

Mainly dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with the eventual return of weak high pressure. High temperatures Friday are forecast still to be above normal but cooler, with a range mainly from the lower 70s to lower 80s for much of the area.

Rain showers return to the forecast for the weekend but probabilities are low initially with more of a chance Saturday night through Sunday night. This will be as another low pressure system makes its approach and gets close enough to the local region to give higher chances of rain. Another frontal system approaches for early next week, keeping the chances for showers in the forecast.

Temperatures more of a decline with more easterly component to the wind weekend into early next week. Highs get more in the 70s for much of the area with more 60s along the coast.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through tonight.

VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is the potential for MVFR cigs to move back in tonight, but confidence on how far west it will overspread is low at this time. Will continue with low end VFR (BKN035) and SCT020 to show the MVFR potential tonight. KGON is the only terminal with enough confidence to prevail MVFR conditions tonight. Low clouds should burn off Tuesday morning.

S winds around 10 kts, will shift SE-S this evening and into tonight. Winds become light and variable for outlying terminals. Sea breeze develops once again Tuesday afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with how far west MVFR cigs will go tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. Chc S-SW gusts around 20kt both afternoons.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Chc SW gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chc NW gusts around 20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
One thing that might need to be monitored for tonight is the possibility of dense fog late tonight into Tuesday morning with light winds and elevated low level RH. Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through the end of next week. However, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are likely to see a coastal jet produce gusts up to 20-25 kt, especially on Wednesday, and seas of 3 to 4 ft in the NY Bight along with seas possibly touching 5 ft.

For the marine long term forecast from Wednesday night through Saturday night, conditions are forecast to remain mainly below SCA thresholds on all forecast marine zones. Only exception would be Wednesday night with some SCA level wind gusts on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Noank
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM EDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     -2.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Boston, MA,