Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Groton, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:44 AM EDT (04:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:46AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1137 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms late this evening, then showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of tstms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1137 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm fay will move well north of the region this morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton city, CT
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location: 41.3, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 110151 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 951 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will move northward while weakening, just west of NYC overnight, and well north into the mid Hudson Valley by Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Tropical Storm Fay circulation can be seen working north into northeastern NJ this evening. Heavy rain threat has ended for most of the region, except for warm conveyor belt streamer working northeast through SE CT over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, bands of light to moderate rain work around the circulation as it moves north overnight.

With loss of diurnal instability and weakening spiral banding, the threat for severe thunderstorms is ending as well.

In terms of winds, east to southeast winds of 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible across immediate coastal locales of LI and Coastal CT for several more hour as 35-40 kt llj around Faye still works northeast. Winds across NYC and NJ metro are expected to weaken to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph over the next couple of hours and switch to the SW.

Winds will then diminish early Saturday morning as Fay moves off to the north.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and forecast details for Tropical Storm Fay.

High surf and high risk of rip currents continues at Atlantic Ocean beaches Saturday with slowly subsiding southerly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Despite the exit of Fay, a moist airmass will remain in place and allow for destabilization during the day. At the same time, an upr trof will approach from the w. As cin erodes, tstm initiation over the cwa is likely. The 12Z NAM indicated around 3000 CAPE in the aftn and eve. The main limiting factor is whether any earlier convection works over the atmosphere sufficiently. The primary svr threats will be damaging winds and hail. Severe wording and damaging winds have been included in the fcst for wrn areas to highlight the threat.

Any activity is modeled to diminish in the overnight period as dry air sweeps in at the mid lvls.

The NBM was used for temps. Heat indices will be close to 95 for much of the area. An advy may be needed based on the 2 day criteria Sat and Sun.

A high risk of rip currents continues for Atlantic Ocean beaches on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The mean trough axis will remain fairly stationary near the region through early next week as it is reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through Great Lakes into New England. Decent agreement that by mid week this trough axis finally lifts ne of the area, with heat ridging building into the area for late week into the weekend.

This setup will have a deep S/SW flow across the region through Tuesday, with a series of weak troughs moving through the region. This will spell a very warm and humid pattern with potential for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity as shortwave energy rotates through with the surface troughs. Timing/location/coverage/intensity of threat will be determined by timing of shortwaves, which will have to be refined at shorter lead time.

General agreement with the mean trough axis lifting northeast of the region Wed, with building heights. If this plays out, deep WSW flow will advect in the building heat across the central US, with the hottest airmass of the season for late week into the weekend. With the region lying on northern periphery of this ridge and active westerlies across US/Canada border, and potentially moderate to high instability to work with, an occasional MCS or organized convective threat rolling through the area is not out of the question during this period.

The high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Tropical Storm Fay located just west of the NYC terminals will lift north of the region overnight with gradually improving conditions. Another potentially impactful afternoon is possible on Saturday with the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions with lingering showers overnight, then gradual improvement to VFR Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the improvement, which possibly could occur earlier than forecast.

MVFR or lower likely in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Best chance will be across the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals.

E/SE winds gusting up to 35 kt, mainly near the coast, will veer around to the S-SW overnight. S winds on Saturday will gust to around 20 kt in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday Night. Chance of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA in the evening. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible. Tuesday AND Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. Tropical storm conditions continue into tngt, before improving early Sat. Ocean waves of 10-12 ft with the Sound up 5-6 ft, will slowly subside overnight, but still remain 5 to 7 ft on the ocean. Seas may remain abv sca lvls on the ocean into the middle of next week despite the exit of Fay. On the protected waters, winds and waves look to remain blw sca lvls Sat thru the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY. Up to an additional 1/2 inch of rain, particularly NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT with Fay, before coming to an end overnight. Flash flood threat has ended.

Additional thunderstorms Saturday aft/eve could result in localized flash flooding. Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected through Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion, particularly during the times of high tide tonight into Saturday afternoon. Localized dune erosion is also possible, but threat for washovers is low.

In terms of coastal flooding, there is a low potential for minor coastal flood impacts with tonight's high tide from combined surge and wave set-up. Localized minor flood impacts for vulnerable coastal locales of LI, Jamaica Bay and lower NY/NJ harbor for tonight high tidal cycle.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ009>012. NY . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . NV NEAR TERM . NV SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . DW MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 4 mi56 min SE 14 G 20 73°F 67°F1008.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi56 min 73°F 65°F1009.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 41 mi56 min SSE 16 G 19 73°F 74°F1010.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi164 min SSE 19 G 23 73°F 73°F1009.4 hPa72°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 42 mi56 min SE 11 G 16 71°F 64°F1010.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi56 min SSE 14 G 19 74°F 74°F1005.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi119 min SSE 8 74°F 1011 hPa72°F
PRUR1 46 mi56 min 73°F 73°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi56 min S 6 G 13 73°F 1011.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi56 min 73°F 76°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT3 mi1.8 hrsSE 157.00 miOvercast72°F70°F94%1009.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI15 mi51 minSE 86.00 miOvercast with Haze77°F69°F77%1010.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi50 minSSE 7 mi74°F71°F91%1009.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi3.5 hrsSSE 11 G 231.50 miLight Rain73°F73°F100%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E5E4NE4NE4NE5E6NE6E6E7E12E13E13E9E13E14
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW3S3S5SW7S7S7S6S4S8S9S9S8S8S5CalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoSE5SE4S4S5S5S7S7S8S5S5S6S7S5SW7S9SW11S8S5S4S5SW4S4CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Silver Eel Pond, Fishers Island, N.Y.
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Silver Eel Pond
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.32.21.91.61.310.60.40.611.51.92.22.32.221.71.410.70.71

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:13 AM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM EDT     -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:40 PM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.11.91.40.5-0.6-1.7-2.4-2.5-1.9-0.90.21.32.12.21.81.10.1-1-2-2.4-2.1-1.4-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.