Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Shasta, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 032242 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 242 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

DISCUSSION
A rather pleasant afternoon is underway for most of the forecast area with a shortwave ridge passing through the region today. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday with some high clouds streaming overhead providing filtered sunshine. Along the coast, however, low clouds linger from this morning and are expected to increase as a frontal system moves into the region this evening and overnight. This incoming front will be the last widespread weather producer for some time. Once the upper level trough departs late Thursday, high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific this weekend and remains in place well into next week. This will shunt the storm track to the north and our area will largely miss out on active weather.

The front coming through tonight into Wednesday will be pretty standard for this time of year, and while there may be a few inconveniences, it will largely be beneficial. Snow levels start off around 6000-7000 ft this afternoon, lowering to around 4000-5000 ft tonight as the front is pushing through. This will bring a quick round of snow to the Cascades, heaviest north of Highway 140 where 6- 10 inches are in the forecast starting around sunrise and continuing through the afternoon. We do maintain a Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward for early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening (details at WSWMFR). Widespread beneficial rainfall is expected as well with 0.75"-1.00" along the coast/coastal mountains with 0.25"-0.50" for West Side Valleys.
Amounts will be a bit less east of the Cascades (as is typical) with generally 0.10'-0.25" expected. Winds will get quite breezy as well with this front, especially behind the front Wednesday afternoon when daytime heating will allow for full mixing. We don't anticipate any wind headlines with this front since widespread gusts of 20-30 mph are mainly what's expected, but there could be a few areas that potentially see gusts 35 to 40 mph. This would be most likely in the higher terrain east of the Cascades (Summer Lake/Warners).

The other item for Wednesday will be thunderstorm potential. We're getting into that time of year when thunderstorm chances increase behind frontal passages. Given the trough will be overhead during peak heating, there will be a widespread chances (10-30%) for some weak thunderstorms from the Cascades westward. Gusty winds are expected with any of the heavier showers/thunderstorms as well as the potential for graupel. The back side of the trough swings through late Wednesday evening, resulting in diminishing showers, though onshore flow keeps them going along the coast, to around the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and over to the Cascades right through Wednesday night. Back side energy could still bring some chance of showers on Thursday across NW sections, with dry weather taking hold elsewhere.

Guidance remains steadfast for this weekend and into early next week, showing a strong upper ridge developing over the Pacific (around 140W) with the core of a strong upper jet directed to our north. The strength of this ridge and the timing of any disturbances sliding over the top of it remain the sources of uncertainty. Many outcomes keep the bulk of precipitation to our north, while others bring the possibility of light rainfall to NW sections, especially coast and Cascades. NBM PoP guidance shows slight chance to chance PoPs over NW sections of the CWA, with dry and milder conditions to the south and east. Either way, this doesn't look like a period of stormy weather coming up, but rather glancing blows from systems coming over the top. Spring has sprung, and it will certainly feel like it this weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid 60s, and some areas across northern California possibly reaching the 70 degree mark. CPC forecasts continue to favor near to above normal temps and drier than normal for Week 2 (through mid- March).
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