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FXUS66 KMFR 102345 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 202 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated AVIATION discussion

SHORT TERM
Sunday 12/10 to Tuesday 12/12...Precipitation is spreading east across the region this afternoon per recent radar imagery. So far today, we've seen 0.5-0.9 inches of rain reported along the Coos County coast, with closer to 0.1-0.25" reported across Douglas, north Jackson, and north-central Klamath counties. The frontal band will continue to move southeast across the area this evening and most areas in southwest OR will see light to moderate rain by the end of today, with heavier amounts along the coast, in north Douglas County, and over the south OR Cascades. The band is expected to break apart before it makes it's way too far into CA, however, and those of you in SE Siskiyou and Modoc counties will likely continue to see dry, if cloudy, weather today.

Snow levels today are high, generally above 8,000 feet, and temperatures have risen above freezing below that, so while the highest peaks in the area might see a dusting of snow over today, most of this precipitation will fall as rain. Rain will turn intermittent/showery by early tonight, with off-and-on light rain lasting through Monday morning, lingering longest over the western mountains. Remaining cloudiness will keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight and Monday morning, especially areas west of the Cascades (west Jackson and Douglas, Josephine, Coos, & Curry counties) where we're expecting to stay well above freezing. After a cloudy and showery morning, the remainder of Monday will be dry for the majority of the region as ridging builds in from the northwest, with skies starting to clear through the day. Expect afternoon high temperatures to be near today's, if not a couple degrees warmer.

As the upper ridge starts to build more fully into the area late Monday into early Tuesday, winds will turn offshore, with breezy east winds over ridgetops and more variable, light winds in the valleys. Skies will continue to clear overnight into Tuesday, which will improve radiational cooling and result in low temperatures back in the mid-30s in Josephine/Jackson/east Douglas counties, 20s east of the Cascades, and lower 40s along the coast. Good cooling and stable conditions will also result in fog and low stratus clouds in sheltered valleys, including in the Umpqua, Illinois, and Rogue valleys, among others. With the low sun angle, fog and stratus that do develop will have a hard time dissipating fully until the afternoon, but elsewhere mostly clear skies and slightly above seasonable temperatures are expected Tuesday. -CSP


LONG TERM
Wednesday morning through Sunday night...A high pressure ridge will remain over the area on Wednesday while a front moves into the ridge from the northwest. Model and ensembles differ in the exact placement of this front and how much precipitation may spread into the coast and inland into western portions of the area.
Overall, models and ensembles favor the front staying northwest of the area with be the best chance for precipitation along the coast Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. The National Blend of Models indicates a 50-75% chance of rain along the coast and into the coastal mountains but lesser chances into the Umpqua Valley (30- 50%), central/eastern Josephine County (15-25%) and south-central Cascades (15-25%). Precipitation is expected to be light, generally 0.05 to 0.25 inches along the coast/coast range with very light precipitation (if at all) for areas inland of the coast range (with amounts ranging from a Trace to less than 0.10 inches).

Models are showing the front lifting back to the north as a warm front Thursday night with the ridge rebuilding over the area.

Late Friday into the weekend, models and ensembles continue to show a large, closed low developing well off the California coast. Some members bring this low toward the coast next weekend, but others maintain the upper ridge keeping the low offshore longer and resulting in a dry weekend. Since it's still well out there, we've gone with the NBM in the extended, which brings slight rain chances (15-20%) back to the coast as early as Saturday, with a better probability of rain on Sunday (40-50% chance) at the coast. Inland of the coast, the chance for precipitation also increases by Sunday (20-40% from the Cascades west and 10-30% east of the Cascades).
Confidence is low on the precipitation forecast for the weekend though since models and ensembles show a variety of solutions with over half keeping the precipitation offshore or just beginning to move into the coastal areas on Sunday. -CC

AVIATION
11/00Z TAFs...Showery activity continues over the Oregon coast north of Gold Beach, with MVFR ceilings persisting and visibilities bouncing between VFR and MVFR levels. IFR ceilings are expected to settle over the coast late this evening or early Monday morning. Light showers will continue through Monday morning.

Showers are also falling inland over Coos and Douglas counties, with a slight chance of showers still possible over Curry, Josephine, and Jackson counties this evening. IFR ceilings are also expected in west side valleys later this evening into Monday morning. The highest chances for low elevation fog are in the Rogue Valley, especially around Grant's Pass and Medford.

Showers are generally getting stopped by the Cascades, although radar shows some activity getting east of the mountains. Isolated snow showers are possible, but VFR or high MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Please be aware that ceilings and visibilities may be locally lower under showery activity, and that terrain may be obscured. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Sunday December 10, 2023...Elevated southerly winds continue along the Oregon coast ahead of an approaching cold front. While all waters will see steep seas through this evening, winds of 20-30 kts at and north of Gold Beach and within 10 nm of shore will build more active seas than other areas. A Small Craft Advisory will remain over all waters until 11 PM this evening to reflect this continuing hazard.

Winds will turn northerly behind the cold front to start the week. A weak thermal trough could build over waters south of Cape Blanco Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, although wind speeds are not currently expected to be impactful. Periods of steep seas are possible in waters south of Gold Beach and beyond 10nm from shore early Tuesday morning, but confidence in these conditions is not currently high enough to issue any products.

Calm seas will until until Wednesday evening or Thursday morning when the next front approaches the area. Current guidance shows swell-built steep seas through all waters beyond 10nm from shore through the day Thursday. Confidence in conditions towards the end of the week require more time to develop. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 370.

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Trinidad Harbor
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Sun -- 02:48 AM PST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:10 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:09 PM PST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:46 PM PST     5.30 feet High Tide
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Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet

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