Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Shasta, CA
May 12, 2024 7:41 PM PDT (02:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 8:32 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
FXUS66 KMFR 122127 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 227 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024
.SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...
Overview:
The main item of importance in the short term is the thunderstorm potential (~20-25%) this afternoon across eastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, breezy afternoon wind speeds (15-20mph)
are possible, and overall mostly sunny skies across the region outside of our thunderstorm potential areas. The main threat today is lightning as we are not expecting severe weather. That said, lightning kills too many people each year, and having a plan for when thunderstorms develop is always the best approach towards outdoor activities.
Further Details:
A closed low over the Pacific Ocean is creating a split flow type of pattern over the western CONUS. The northern stream does have a shortwave within the northwest flow, and this will help produce thunderstorms this afternoon in conjunction with areas reaching convective temperatures. The dynamics and kinematics are not really impressive today, so this will likely be ordinary type thunderstorm day with difficulty maintaining an updraft.
Deterministic models are mostly suggesting around 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This has increased slightly from yesterday. The problem today is the timing of variables phasing together. By the time the shortwave trough axis starts to come inland and swing through the forecast area producing lift, we will be losing some of the instability noted in the atmosphere today. Currently, the day cloud phase distinction product from satellite is indicating a struggle for vertical growth within a cu-field over eastern portions of the forecast area. This is likely due to lack in forcing as well as lack of moisture, especially the low levels. In fact, forecast soundings resemble an inverted-v on the eastside, so there is a chance for gusty outflow wind speeds if a thunderstorm collapses. These speeds could be as high as 40-50 mph. That problem of course is we need a thunderstorm to actually develop to have this possibility, which may be a struggle this afternoon and evening. Outside of the risk for very isolated strong outflows, lightning is really the main threat today. We are not expecting the chance for thunderstorms to go beyond 9-10pm tonight.
-Guerrero
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The longer term forecast begins with upper level, long-wave ridging starting to move into the western U.S. from the Pacific.
The axis of the ridge will remain offshore, leading to northerly flow aloft. Another thermal trough, an area of low pressure induced by warm air, will continue to strengthen along the southern OR/northern CA coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a very similar pattern to the one we saw earlier in this week, one which brings higher than average temperatures to the area (more typical of June than May), dry weather, and sunny skies.
At lower levels, northerly flow will start to shift NE to easterly Tuesday through Wednesday. This will set off the Chetco Effect, where air is funneled down the Chetco River Valley and warms as its forced down towards sea level, which will result in warm temperatures for Brookings and the surrounding southern Curry County coast. Highs look to be in the high 70s to mid 80s through Thursday, peaking Wednesday. Farther north, more of a due northerly flow will continue night and morning stratus for the beaches from Cape Blanco northward. Inland, we'll continue to see warm temperatures each day, especially in valleys. Highs in the 80s up to 90 degrees are expected in western, inland valleys, peaking Wednesday, while east side locations will see high 70s to low 80s, likely peaking Thursday. Finally, mountainous areas will see highs in the 60s, warming slightly each day through Thursday.
Model differences increase Friday into the weekend, but generally agree that the ridge will flatten and move east as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest Friday into Saturday. Not a lot of ensemble members are enthusiastic about any precipitation, but showers and thunderstorms are possible with this pattern. The trough will help moderate temperatures Friday into the weekend, though they'll remain warmer than average in most areas. A more progressive pattern with more troughs and transient ridges looks likely heading into next week.
-CSP
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
Marine stratus remains over the Oregon coast, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings. Model guidance suggests that this marine layer may thin for a couple hours late in the afternoon. Marine clouds will return this evening and remain through the end of the TAF period.
Other areas of northern California and southern Oregon will generally remain under VFR conditions through the TAF period. 15-25% chances of thunderstorms will develop over northern California and areas east of the Cascades this afternoon. Extra caution may be necessary around developing cells this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will dissipate quickly this evening.
-TAD/BPN
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Sunday, May 12, 2024...The strengthening thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep wind- driven seas this evening through Monday morning, with gales and very steep seas expected by Monday afternoon. The strongest winds and most hazardous seas will occur in the afternoon, especially south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough is forecast to remain in place throughout the next week, with little day-to-day change.
Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect through Wednesday, and are likely to be extended, with similar conditions forecast all the way through next weekend.
-BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 227 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024
.SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...
Overview:
The main item of importance in the short term is the thunderstorm potential (~20-25%) this afternoon across eastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, breezy afternoon wind speeds (15-20mph)
are possible, and overall mostly sunny skies across the region outside of our thunderstorm potential areas. The main threat today is lightning as we are not expecting severe weather. That said, lightning kills too many people each year, and having a plan for when thunderstorms develop is always the best approach towards outdoor activities.
Further Details:
A closed low over the Pacific Ocean is creating a split flow type of pattern over the western CONUS. The northern stream does have a shortwave within the northwest flow, and this will help produce thunderstorms this afternoon in conjunction with areas reaching convective temperatures. The dynamics and kinematics are not really impressive today, so this will likely be ordinary type thunderstorm day with difficulty maintaining an updraft.
Deterministic models are mostly suggesting around 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This has increased slightly from yesterday. The problem today is the timing of variables phasing together. By the time the shortwave trough axis starts to come inland and swing through the forecast area producing lift, we will be losing some of the instability noted in the atmosphere today. Currently, the day cloud phase distinction product from satellite is indicating a struggle for vertical growth within a cu-field over eastern portions of the forecast area. This is likely due to lack in forcing as well as lack of moisture, especially the low levels. In fact, forecast soundings resemble an inverted-v on the eastside, so there is a chance for gusty outflow wind speeds if a thunderstorm collapses. These speeds could be as high as 40-50 mph. That problem of course is we need a thunderstorm to actually develop to have this possibility, which may be a struggle this afternoon and evening. Outside of the risk for very isolated strong outflows, lightning is really the main threat today. We are not expecting the chance for thunderstorms to go beyond 9-10pm tonight.
-Guerrero
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The longer term forecast begins with upper level, long-wave ridging starting to move into the western U.S. from the Pacific.
The axis of the ridge will remain offshore, leading to northerly flow aloft. Another thermal trough, an area of low pressure induced by warm air, will continue to strengthen along the southern OR/northern CA coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This is a very similar pattern to the one we saw earlier in this week, one which brings higher than average temperatures to the area (more typical of June than May), dry weather, and sunny skies.
At lower levels, northerly flow will start to shift NE to easterly Tuesday through Wednesday. This will set off the Chetco Effect, where air is funneled down the Chetco River Valley and warms as its forced down towards sea level, which will result in warm temperatures for Brookings and the surrounding southern Curry County coast. Highs look to be in the high 70s to mid 80s through Thursday, peaking Wednesday. Farther north, more of a due northerly flow will continue night and morning stratus for the beaches from Cape Blanco northward. Inland, we'll continue to see warm temperatures each day, especially in valleys. Highs in the 80s up to 90 degrees are expected in western, inland valleys, peaking Wednesday, while east side locations will see high 70s to low 80s, likely peaking Thursday. Finally, mountainous areas will see highs in the 60s, warming slightly each day through Thursday.
Model differences increase Friday into the weekend, but generally agree that the ridge will flatten and move east as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest Friday into Saturday. Not a lot of ensemble members are enthusiastic about any precipitation, but showers and thunderstorms are possible with this pattern. The trough will help moderate temperatures Friday into the weekend, though they'll remain warmer than average in most areas. A more progressive pattern with more troughs and transient ridges looks likely heading into next week.
-CSP
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
Marine stratus remains over the Oregon coast, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings. Model guidance suggests that this marine layer may thin for a couple hours late in the afternoon. Marine clouds will return this evening and remain through the end of the TAF period.
Other areas of northern California and southern Oregon will generally remain under VFR conditions through the TAF period. 15-25% chances of thunderstorms will develop over northern California and areas east of the Cascades this afternoon. Extra caution may be necessary around developing cells this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will dissipate quickly this evening.
-TAD/BPN
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Sunday, May 12, 2024...The strengthening thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep wind- driven seas this evening through Monday morning, with gales and very steep seas expected by Monday afternoon. The strongest winds and most hazardous seas will occur in the afternoon, especially south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough is forecast to remain in place throughout the next week, with little day-to-day change.
Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect through Wednesday, and are likely to be extended, with similar conditions forecast all the way through next weekend.
-BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.
Trinidad Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:31 AM PDT 6.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM PDT -0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM PDT 4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM PDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM PDT 3.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 02:31 AM PDT 6.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM PDT -0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM PDT 4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM PDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM PDT 3.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5 |
| 1 am |
| 5.8 |
| 2 am |
| 6.3 |
| 3 am |
| 6.3 |
| 4 am |
| 5.7 |
| 5 am |
| 4.6 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 4 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Medford, OR,
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