Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Derby, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 8:49 PM EST (01:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 620 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain or snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain or snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
ANZ300 620 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the forecast waters tonight and remains through Friday. Meanwhile, a rapidly deepening low off the carolina coast will pass well south Thursday, and to the east Thursday night and Friday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest late this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT
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location: 41.32, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 272358 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 658 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the region from the west tonight, and remains through Friday. Meanwhile, a rapidly deepening low off the Carolina coast will pass well south Thursday, and to the east Thursday night and Friday. A complex low pressure system will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday, then track across the country over the weekend, potentially impacting the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. The fcst is on track. The surface trough across the region continues to slowly weaken as upper shortwave energy moves to the east. Zonal flow remains across the region with an upper low over eastern Canada and a southern stream shortwave reaches the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. This will allow low pressure moving off the Carolina coast to begin to rapidly deepen.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure remains over the region Thursday as the coastal low tracks well south. However, winds will be increasing through the day. Thursday evening a surface trough/Arctic boundary moves through the region ushering in the coldest air of the winter season so far. Increasing cold advection, especially after 06Z, and increasing winds will increase, and remain below advisory levels. Wind chill values will be zero to 10 below zero across the region. Winds briefly are expected to increase Friday morning, especially across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut, as cold advection remains and a surface trough moves through. There is the potential that wind gusts will approach wind advisory criteria. High temperatures Friday will be near 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential storm for the beginning of next week.

High pres over Ontario and Quebec over the weekend will funnel arctic air into the region. Temps will be blw normal, with the NBM with local adjustments used for the fcst.

The models have been consistent with the potential for low pres impacting the region for the beginning of next week . perhaps for an extended period of time. The GFS has continued this theme, but the 12Z run appears a lot faster than the model consensus has been. The ECMWF is more consistent with a slower timing. The differences are noted with the emergence of the upr low from the Rockies on Sat mrng. The GEM supports the slower ECMWF at H5 early Sat. For these reasons, the fcst leans towards the slower model timing. The GFS wasn't completely discounted, but pops were limited to slight chance during the day on Sun, which was blw the NBM.

In addition to the timing differences, there are also uncertainties with track and intensity. The ECMWF continues to resemble the progs it has been putting out for several runs, and the GFS is echoing this type of soln as well. Both models have a blocking high over the Atlc which will serve to slow the sys. The fcst keeps pops at high chance Mon and Mon ngt. Pops were raised abv the NBM on Tue to the chance category due to increased confidence in a slowing sys.

Depending on the exact track, srn and ern areas could see mixing or a changeover to rain by Mon, lasting thru Mon ngt before everything ends as snow. Typical north and west areas mainly snow attm.

Using the 12Z runs as perfect progs, the ECMWF would be a lot of rain for the coasts and ern areas with the low slipping inside the benchmark. The GFS would be mainly snow with the low staying s and e of the benchmark.

A dry fcst for Wed as the sys exits.

Went blw the NBM for daytime highs Mon and Tue with expected pcpn. Went abv the NBM for lows Mon ngt, due to the realities associated with the storm and the likely lack of any real diurnal swing.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday, as it passes well south of the area terminals. This will usher in strong gusty winds in its wake by Thursday afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions with pockets of high-end MVFR into tonight mainly eastern terminals.

NW-N winds 10-15 kt. Winds gradually ramp up toward daybreak Thursday with more widespread gusts up to 20 kt. By midday Thursday NW winds gusting 25-30kt and near 35kt by evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

MVFR conditions could linger through tonight across the eastern terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thu night and Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower in snow late in the day. Sun night and Mon. Chance of MVFR/IFR in snow and rain. Gusty winds possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across all the forecast waters through tonight as high pressure builds to the west, and deepening low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast. As this low continues to rapidly deepen Thursday while tracking to the south, wind gusts across all the waters are expected to reach SCA levels, especially later in the morning and through the afternoon as northern gusts increase. Gusty north to northwest winds increase Thursday night and Friday as the low continues to deepen and track east of the forecast waters. A gale watch was upgraded to a gale warning for Thursday night and Friday for all the waters. Also, with the increased winds Thursday night and air temperatures falling into the teens across the waters, freezing spray is expected across Long Island Sound and the ocean waters. A freezing spray advisory may be needed.

Gales will come down to advy lvl on Sat for all waters. Winds and seas look to be blw sca lvls for Sun. A potential storm will bring winds and seas to at least sca lvls for Mon and Tue, with gales possible. Seas could build to at least 15 ft on the ocean during the peak of the storm.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected tonight through Friday. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sat-Tue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . MET NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . BC MARINE . JMC/MET HYDROLOGY . JMC/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT10 mi58 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1019 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi57 minN 1010.00 miOvercast34°F24°F67%1018.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT11 mi59 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast29°F25°F85%1020.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi57 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1019 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT21 mi57 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast30°F20°F66%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11NE7NE7N5N7N5N6N5--N4N5N5NW4NW6N8N11
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1 day agoN7N8--NE5W3N6N5NE6--NE7NE6NE7NE9E12E10E11E12E14NE11NE10NE12NE7N10N7
2 days agoNW9NW7--NW9NW10NW10NW11NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:36 AM EST     5.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.13.32.41.60.80.40.41.22.74.25.25.34.9431.90.90.2-0.20.21.42.94.2

Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:42 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:53 AM EST     7.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:17 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:22 PM EST     6.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.22.81.50.60.41.12.54.15.76.87.16.55.23.51.90.5-0.2-01.12.64.25.66.36.2

Weather Map
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