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Marine Weather and Tides Derby, CT Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:13AM

Sunset 4:52PM

Saturday January 18, 2020 9:28 AM EST (14:28 UTC)

Moonrise 2:02AM

Moonset 1:08PM

Illumination 41%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 181330 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 830 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the region gives way to a frontal system that impacts the region this afternoon and tonight. Polar high pressure building into the mid section of the country Sunday will then move east and into the area by mid week. The high will then remain in place through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for most of the region from 1000 AM today through 100 AM Sunday morning.

A mid deck of clouds across eastern Pennsylvania was seen on radar and observations. These clouds will be moving into the region a little quicker than forecast so increased sky cover through this morning. Light snow was developing across western Pennsylvania where thermal forcing was increasing. Temperatures and dew points were increased, especially dew points across the coastal areas as both were higher than forecast.

High pressure centered over New England into the mid Atlantic was beginning to weaken and drift offshore early this morning. The forecast timing and precipitation type and changeover remain mainly consistent with the previous forecast, and model guidance, with a slight delay with the ending across the far eastern zones toward 09Z.

Warm advection light snow could begin as early as 16Z across the western zones, and have chance and slight chance probabilities. However the best forcing looks to be toward 18Z as warm advection strengthens. Precipitation will remain all snow through today. With a southerly onshore flow precipitation begins to transition to a rain/snow mix then rain. The timing of this transition may delayed dynamic cooling continues with wet bulb temperatures still below freezing along the coast at 00Z. Also, a low level jet will enhance lift and precipitation continues as moderate to possibly briefly heavy. However, another uncertainty is how quickly the lower levels warm, and will be starting off a couple of degrees warm as temperatures have fallen more slowly as high clouds have moved across the region and a light northerly flow remains. So, still expect the transition to begin 23Z to 00Z, especially the southeastern zones and continue this evening. However, far northwestern sections may not see a transition until late as the precipitation is coming to an end late tonight. Also, with the boundary layer warming a period of sleet will be possible with the transition, and have this in the weather grids.

Precipitation amounts have been trended downward slightly and Long Island coastal zones will be borderline with advisory level snowfall. However, with the lower totals there is still uncertainty with the timing of the transition to rain, so decided to leave the advisory as posted.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. Deep cyclonic flow will remain through Sunday as the center of the low pulls east, and a weak trough remains back across the Hudson Valley into southern New England. Models do indicate enough moisture with the trough and have some precipitation as energy continues to rotate through the longwave upper trough. Think that a few flurries will be possible inland but will leave out the mention at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The northern branch of the polar jet will briefly visit the northeast quarter of the nation next week with dry, and unseasonably cold air. This will be a far cry from where we have been this month with average temperatures at the official climate sites round 10 degrees above normal. Central Park through the first 16 days was fifth warmest all time.

After seasonable temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures through midweek will be at or just below freezing. Additionally, a gusty NW flow (up to 30 mph) on Sunday will gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday as the high approaches and low pressure departs across the north Atlantic.

For the second half of the week, the upper trough over the northeast departs and will be replaced by a southern branch upper ridge. The latter of which will be preceded by an upper low moving out into the Central Plains on Thursday and into the mid Mississippi Valley by Friday. This will allow for a gradual warmup with temperatures returning to just above normal levels by next Friday.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A incoming low pressure system brings accumulating snow then rain beginning late this afternoon into tonight.

VFR through the morning with NNW winds mostly under 10kt across all terminals. Winds shift to the south as conditions deteriorate rapidly in the afternoon with IFR conditions expected to develop. LIFR is possible in periods of moderate snow. IFR conditions are forecast to remain through the evening improving to MVFR once the snow ends and rain begins during the evening hours.

Forecast snow amounts: NYC and NE NJ terminals: 2-4 inches, LI terminals: 1-3 inches, Lower Hudson Valley terminals: 3-5 inches, Southern CT terminals: 3-5 inches.

Light snow may begin an hour or two earlier than forecast in TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night. IFR with Snow changing to rain southeast to northwest in evening, remaining snow well northwest. Dry conditions return overnight with mostly MVFR conds. Sunday. VFR. W-WNW gusts near 25kt day into evening. Gusts diminish late Sunday night. Monday-Wednesday. VFR, NW winds much of the period, N winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE. No changes were made to winds and seas at this time.

Light north winds persist through the morning and afternoon hours.

SCA conditions begin late Saturday evening ahead of the frontal system. Strong south winds gusting 25-30 kts during the evening and overnight hours switch west during the day Sunday but remaining at SCA levels. Small craft conditions expand through the Long Island Sound for most of the day Sunday. By the overnight hours and into early Monday winds diminish below SCA criteria and a northwest flow 10-15 kts develops over the marine zones.

No hazards expected at this time for next week as a surface high pressure system builds over the region. This will result in light north winds of 5-10 kts with waves ranging 1-2 feet with dry rain free conditions through Friday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday of next week.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ067>075- 078>080-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . 19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . DJ/16/DS MARINE . DJ/16 HYDROLOGY . 19 EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	9 mi	59 min	N 2.9 G 5.1	18°F	39°F		1034.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	11 mi	59 min	WNW 1.9 G 4.1	18°F	40°F		1034.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound	37 mi	44 min	N 1.9 G 5.8	20°F				3°F
44022 - Execution Rocks	46 mi	44 min	NNE 1.9 G 5.8	20°F	32°F			2°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT

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9 PM

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Last 24hr

N10 G19

N9 G17

N10 G20

N12 G18

N10 G17

N5 G18

N11 G24

N11 G17

N11 G17

N7 G13

NW11 G16

N10 G15

N14 G17

N3 G11

N6 G12

N4 G11

N10 G16

N8 G15

N4 G7

N4 G9

N4 G10

NW8

N3 G6

NW4

1 day ago

NW14 G22

NW23 G29

NW20 G25

NW21 G28

NW24 G31

NW20 G31

N11 G23

NW22 G29

NW17 G23

N13 G27

N22 G30

N14 G26

NW24 G31

N12 G23

N9 G19

N17 G30

N19 G30

N22 G31

N15 G26

N6 G17

N4 G12

N7 G16

N8 G19

N19 G26

2 days ago

N10 G13

N5 G13

N6 G9

NW1 G8

W2

W12

NW8 G12

SW6

SW2

SE3

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NE3

NE2

NE2

NE2

NE2

NE2

SE4

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SE8

SW5 G9

W7 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT	10 mi	37 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	19°F	0°F	43%	1034.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT	11 mi	36 min	WNW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	1°F	47%	1034.2 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT	11 mi	38 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	14°F	1°F	56%	1035.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT	19 mi	36 min	WNW 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	17°F	0°F	45%	1034.5 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT	21 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	15°F	0°F	49%	1033.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N14 G24

N15 G23

N16 G21

NW18 G24

NW11 G20

N13 G21

N13 G20

NW12 G22

NW11

N7

N8

N10

N4

NW6

NW9

NW10

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NW3

N5

NW4

NW6

NW4

NW5

NW3

1 day ago

W19 G32

NW17 G31

NW26 G45

W19 G29

W19 G27

W20 G29

W25 G40

W23 G36

NW11 G26

N13 G18

NW10

NW17 G22

NW17 G30

NW12 G19

NW17 G23

NW14 G26

NW15 G24

NW15 G27

NW18 G32

NW14 G29

NW16 G36

NW17 G32

N20 G33

NW19 G29

2 days ago

NW9

N9

6

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SW6

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Calm

NW3

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Calm

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E4

N4

E7

E6

SE5

S4

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W6

W17 G26

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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut

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Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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