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Marine Weather and Tides Derby, CT Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 7:06AM

Sunset 5:04PM

Wednesday January 27, 2021 8:49 PM EST (01:49 UTC)

Moonrise 4:49PM

Moonset 7:33AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 272358 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 658 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the region from the west tonight, and remains through Friday. Meanwhile, a rapidly deepening low off the Carolina coast will pass well south Thursday, and to the east Thursday night and Friday. A complex low pressure system will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday, then track across the country over the weekend, potentially impacting the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. The fcst is on track. The surface trough across the region continues to slowly weaken as upper shortwave energy moves to the east. Zonal flow remains across the region with an upper low over eastern Canada and a southern stream shortwave reaches the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. This will allow low pressure moving off the Carolina coast to begin to rapidly deepen.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure remains over the region Thursday as the coastal low tracks well south. However, winds will be increasing through the day. Thursday evening a surface trough/Arctic boundary moves through the region ushering in the coldest air of the winter season so far. Increasing cold advection, especially after 06Z, and increasing winds will increase, and remain below advisory levels. Wind chill values will be zero to 10 below zero across the region. Winds briefly are expected to increase Friday morning, especially across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut, as cold advection remains and a surface trough moves through. There is the potential that wind gusts will approach wind advisory criteria. High temperatures Friday will be near 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential storm for the beginning of next week.

High pres over Ontario and Quebec over the weekend will funnel arctic air into the region. Temps will be blw normal, with the NBM with local adjustments used for the fcst.

The models have been consistent with the potential for low pres impacting the region for the beginning of next week . perhaps for an extended period of time. The GFS has continued this theme, but the 12Z run appears a lot faster than the model consensus has been. The ECMWF is more consistent with a slower timing. The differences are noted with the emergence of the upr low from the Rockies on Sat mrng. The GEM supports the slower ECMWF at H5 early Sat. For these reasons, the fcst leans towards the slower model timing. The GFS wasn't completely discounted, but pops were limited to slight chance during the day on Sun, which was blw the NBM.

In addition to the timing differences, there are also uncertainties with track and intensity. The ECMWF continues to resemble the progs it has been putting out for several runs, and the GFS is echoing this type of soln as well. Both models have a blocking high over the Atlc which will serve to slow the sys. The fcst keeps pops at high chance Mon and Mon ngt. Pops were raised abv the NBM on Tue to the chance category due to increased confidence in a slowing sys.

Depending on the exact track, srn and ern areas could see mixing or a changeover to rain by Mon, lasting thru Mon ngt before everything ends as snow. Typical north and west areas mainly snow attm.

Using the 12Z runs as perfect progs, the ECMWF would be a lot of rain for the coasts and ern areas with the low slipping inside the benchmark. The GFS would be mainly snow with the low staying s and e of the benchmark.

A dry fcst for Wed as the sys exits.

Went blw the NBM for daytime highs Mon and Tue with expected pcpn. Went abv the NBM for lows Mon ngt, due to the realities associated with the storm and the likely lack of any real diurnal swing.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday, as it passes well south of the area terminals. This will usher in strong gusty winds in its wake by Thursday afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions with pockets of high-end MVFR into tonight mainly eastern terminals.

NW-N winds 10-15 kt. Winds gradually ramp up toward daybreak Thursday with more widespread gusts up to 20 kt. By midday Thursday NW winds gusting 25-30kt and near 35kt by evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

MVFR conditions could linger through tonight across the eastern terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thu night and Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower in snow late in the day. Sun night and Mon. Chance of MVFR/IFR in snow and rain. Gusty winds possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across all the forecast waters through tonight as high pressure builds to the west, and deepening low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast. As this low continues to rapidly deepen Thursday while tracking to the south, wind gusts across all the waters are expected to reach SCA levels, especially later in the morning and through the afternoon as northern gusts increase. Gusty north to northwest winds increase Thursday night and Friday as the low continues to deepen and track east of the forecast waters. A gale watch was upgraded to a gale warning for Thursday night and Friday for all the waters. Also, with the increased winds Thursday night and air temperatures falling into the teens across the waters, freezing spray is expected across Long Island Sound and the ocean waters. A freezing spray advisory may be needed.

Gales will come down to advy lvl on Sat for all waters. Winds and seas look to be blw sca lvls for Sun. A potential storm will bring winds and seas to at least sca lvls for Mon and Tue, with gales possible. Seas could build to at least 15 ft on the ocean during the peak of the storm.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected tonight through Friday. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sat-Tue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . MET NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . BC MARINE . JMC/MET HYDROLOGY . JMC/MET

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for New Haven, CT

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NE9 G12

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N9 G12

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NE5

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E4 G10

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N14

N11 G16

N13 G18

N10 G18

N12 G17

N11 G17

N11 G14

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NW10 G14

N8

N4 G7

NE6

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S3

N9 G13

N7 G12

NW11 G14

NW8 G11

N11 G15

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N11

N8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT	10 mi	58 min	NNW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	23°F	66%	1019 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT	11 mi	57 min	N 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	24°F	67%	1018.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT	11 mi	59 min	NNW 11	10.00 mi	Overcast	29°F	25°F	85%	1020.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT	19 mi	57 min	NNW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	23°F	69%	1019 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT	21 mi	57 min	NNE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	30°F	20°F	66%	1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)

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NE9

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N11 G15

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N7

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NW9

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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut

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Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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