Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Derby, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1)Periods of rain continue into tonight, mainly east of NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley.

2) Drier and cooler air returns during the weekend and lasts well into next week. No impacts anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A slow moving cold front with waves of low pressure will track east across Long Island and CT overnight and then offshore Saturday morning. Rain will mainly be light and east of NYC, with some heavier downpours possible early across eastern LI and SE CT. Rain could linger a bit after sunrise for far SE CT and the twin forks of LI.

Highest rainfall amounts thus far were across eastern LI and CT, with some reports of 2 to 3 inches. However, much of the area received less than inch with the lowest amounts across Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley with less than a quarter inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Closed 500mb low approaches from the west and passes through Saturday night. Showers possible for mainly the northernmost zones with lift and instability due to the cyclonic flow aloft. No impacts with any showers. Relatively weak high pressure then dominates the weather pattern well into next week with only maybe a couple of dry cold front/trough passages. High temperatures generally within 5 degrees of normal Sunday through Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A slow moving cold front with waves of low pressure will track offshore overnight. Rain will mainly be light and east of NYC.
Rain could linger a bit after sunrise for far SE CT and the twin forks of LI.

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the NYC terminals with occasional IFR conditions across the Lower Hudson Valley. The eastern terminals will likely experiencing IFR conditions for much of the overnight, especially KGON. Elsewhere, there is some concern with the light wind and residual moisture for pockets of IFR in low clouds/fog elsewhere, but low confidence.

Chance of MVFR in scattered showers, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours Saturday.

Winds will mainly be light and variable to W/SW at less than 5 kt overnight. Winds will then become W-NW on Saturday and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt the afternoon and evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some variability in wind direction is possible much of the night, but speeds should remain below 10 kt.

Onset time of gusts on Saturday may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. WNW- NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

MARINE
Elevated seas on the ocean will continue into tonight, but will be subsiding. A period of sub-sca conds then follows late tonight through Saturday morning before 25kt+ gusts develop in the afternoon on the ocean, then on the other waters Saturday night. After collaboration with WFO BOX, have decided to not stretch the SCA on the eastern ocean waters to cover the 12 hour or so periods of sub- advisory conditions, and allow for the overnight shift to issue SCAs as appropriate (including for the non-ocean waters), figuring ocean seas will be below 5 ft by 06z tonight. SCA will probably need to be extended into Sunday and Monday as the pressure gradient strengthens, producing a gusty westerly flow.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 6: KEWR: 66/2022 KBDR: 62/2024 KNYC: 66/2022 KLGA: 65/2024 KJFK: 64/2022 KISP: 65/2022

Record Precipitation:

November 6: KEWR: 2.12/1911 KBDR: 0.54/2018 New Record established at 0.77 (additional rainfall likely this evening)
KNYC: 1.47/1911 KLGA: 0.96/1963 KJFK: 1.42/1963 KISP: 0.71/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.