Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Weekapaug, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:24PM Monday February 17, 2020 7:11 AM EST (12:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 416 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Wed and Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu through Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front crosses the waters early today. It will have no precipitation, but it will bring a change of wind from the west- northwest. High pressure over northern new england brings dry weather and northwest winds today, then light winds tonight. A low pressure system will bring rain and gusty winds on Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the area bringing gusty west to northwest winds the rest of the week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weekapaug, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 171142 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 642 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front crosses southern New England this morning followed by dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures. The next weather system may start with a winter mix Tuesday morning before quickly changing to rain for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Blustery and colder conditions return later Wednesday and especially Thursday. The dry and cool conditions continue on Friday, but temperatures begin to rebound on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

645 am update .

No major changes to the forecast with this morning's update. Sfc obs put the center of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and that should slide east through the day keeping skies clear and winds generally light.

Previous Discussion .

Cold front moves offshore during the morning hours. The airmass is sufficiently dry so that no precip is expected, just a wind shift out of the northwest. Canadian high pressure moves in with subsidence, so clearing and dry weather later this morning and this afternoon. The GFS shows 925 mb temperatures of -3C to -6C, while the ECMWF shows -5C to -8C. The colder ECMWF suggests upper 20s and 30s, the milder GFS suggests mid 30s to around 40. With overnight temperatures in the 20s, the milder GFS values are more favorable.

Mixing to 925 mb will tap 15-20 kt winds, supporting daytime northwest gusts of 15-25 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Tonight .

Canadian high pressure will move overhead in the early night, then off to the Maritimes by morning. This will maintain a dry night with fair skies for at least the first half of the night. Clouds then start thickening 1-3 AM. The fair skies and light winds will allow temperatures to cool down through around midnight, then remain steady overnight. The forecast starts with blended guidance for min temps, and lowers it by roughly 2F based on the colder MOS guidance.

Tuesday .

High pressure in place over the Maritimes during the morning generates a clear cold air damming signal over interior Southern New England. Low-level ageostropic flow shows a 20-25 kt drainage flow from the north into Western and Central MA and Nrn CT and the NW corner of RI. Areas to the east show an ageostropic flow from the east or east-northeast rather than the cold flow.

As noted by the previous forecaster, models show bagginess and a triple point on the approaching cold front. The NAM forms a low at this point and moves it across interior Srn New England. The GFS is vague as to any formation. The ECMWF and GGEM form a low but keep it closer to the South Coast. The NAM solution is possible but climatologically unusual . such lows tend to favor the coast and then jump to Massachusetts Bay at a narrowing of land in SE Mass such as the Cape Cod Canal. Thus favor something other than the NAM inland solution.

Precipitable Water values are less than 0.75 inches in the morning, maximizing at 0.75 in Western MA and 1 inch in/near RI and SE Mass in the evening. Consensus of QPF among the operational models shows 0.01 inch values to the NY border at 12Z Tuesday spreading east across Southern New England during the morning and continuing through the afternoon/evening.

The cold air and timing of moisture suggests an initial period of snow for an hour or two in the morning, but changing to rain most everywhere by midday . latest along the NH border. Snow amounts would be just a coating most places but potential for 1-2 inches in parts of Nrn Worcester Co./Franklin Co/East Slopes of the Berkshires.

Winds at 925 mb and 950 mb show a low-level southeast jet near NYC at 12Z then moving along the South Coast and increasing to 40-50 kt by late in the day. Expect increasing southeast winds during the day. Although not all of that wind aloft will reach the surface, it is reasonable to expect gusts 25-30 kt along the coast.

Temperatures should range from the mid 30s in NW Mass to the 40s in the Southeast, mildest along the Cape and Islands.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry through next weekend.

* Gusty winds on Wednesday.

* Expect colder temperatures Wednesday through Friday with the coldest readings on Thursday before mild temps return Sat/Sun.

Details .

Tuesday night and Wednesday .

Tuesday night the cold front drops through bringing an end to the rain as winds shift to the NW and bring in drier and cooler air. There remains some degree of uncertainty as to how quickly the front shuts off the moisture, but most everyone should be dry by the Wednesday morning commute. The only exception is for southeast MA and coastal RI where rain may still be moving offshore. Low temps overnight will be a good deal warmer than the night previous, in the 30s.

Wednesday the last of the rain showers moves offshore early as the low moves up into the Canadian maritimes. On its heels cyclonic flow continues aloft under a sprawling upper trough, but at the sfc high pressure edging in will bring dry and mostly sunny weather. One aspect of being sandwiched between the exiting low and incoming high, however, will be gusty northwest winds. A residual 35-45kt 850 mb LLJ remains overhead and model soundings indicate potential to mix down gusts 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures shouldn't be too different than Tuesday, just a few degrees colder but still mid 30s (interior) to low 40s (southeast coast).

Thursday through Sunday .

Not a very active period of weather for late week into next weekend thanks to expansive high pressure, initially stretching nearly from coast to coast! N/NW flow around this high Thurs/Fri will pull in cold arctic air and bring high temperatures back down to at or just below freezing for both Thursday and Friday. The coldest night of the forecast comes Thursday night/Friday morning as the cold pool aloft is overhead along with good radiational cooling, allowing temps to drop into the single digits and low teens. By late Friday the high moves far enough east to turn flow back out of the SW and begins advecting milder air overhead. However, we won't feel the effects of this really until Saturday. By the weekend the pattern starts to break down in the western U.S., but high pressure holds on over New England bringing continued dry and sunny weather. Temperatures rebound nicely, into the 40s on mild SW flow.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update .

Today . High confidence.

VFR. Light NW winds becoming N toward evening.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR with dry weather and light wind before midnight, then light northeast to east wind overnight. Increasing clouds arrive overnight but with 10 thousand to 20 thousand foot cloud bases. Lower clouds may arrive toward sunrise.

Tuesday . High confidence in occurrence, moderate confidence in timing.

Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR. Light snow developing with less than an inch most places, 1-2 inches possible in Northwest Mass. Snow changing to rain during the morning. Increasing southeast wind at the coasts, with gusts 25 to 30 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Wednesday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

MARINE. Today .

Northwest winds 10-20 kt this morning. Seas less than 5 feet. Dry weather and good vsby prevail thru the day.

Tonight .

Canadian high pressure moves over the Maritimes by morning. Expect dry weather and good visibility. Light wind shifting from the northeast and east. Seas less than 5 feet.

Tuesday .

Increasing southeast wind through the day, with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 5 to 9 feet on the exposed waters, highest east of Massachusetts. Rain developing, with visibility lowering to 1 to 3 nm.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/BW NEAR TERM . WTB/BW SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . WTB/BW MARINE . WTB/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 17 mi46 min N 6 G 7 32°F 1019.9 hPa29°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi53 min 29°F 42°F1021.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi59 min 39°F 40°F1021.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi53 min 35°F 35°F1021 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 26 mi65 min 32°F 39°F1021.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 31 mi86 min WSW 2.9 29°F 1020 hPa29°F
PRUR1 31 mi53 min 30°F 27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 31 mi53 min 32°F 1021.7 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi53 min 29°F 1021.4 hPa28°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi59 min 30°F 37°F1021.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi71 min WNW 6 G 7 1020.9 hPa (+1.1)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 40 mi53 min 32°F 1021.2 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi59 min 31°F 28°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi59 min 30°F 39°F1021.1 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi41 min 44°F2 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi18 minN 07.00 miFair27°F21°F81%1022 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI14 mi15 minNW 410.00 miFair35°F28°F76%1022.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT15 mi75 minN 39.00 miFair25°F25°F100%1020.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY19 mi17 minNW 4 mi38°F32°F79%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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W10W8SW76SW7SW6SW3SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoN3CalmCalm5SW9SW7SW7
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2 days agoNW7
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N5NW8N5N7N6N4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:50 AM EST     2.56 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM EST     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:56 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:39 PM EST     2.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:48 PM EST     -2.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.11.42.32.62.21.50.3-1.1-2.3-2.9-2.8-2.2-1.10.21.42.12.21.81.1-0.1-1.3-2.2-2.4-2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.