Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:58PM Friday August 7, 2020 7:39 AM EDT (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun and Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An area of low pressure over the mid atlantic states will pass the southern waters today while producing scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Another weather disturbance crosses the waters later tonight and Saturday bringing another chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. High pressure builds across the waters for the weekend and early next week. Scattered Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front may approach the coasts late Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 071110 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 710 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface low pressure passing offshore and upper low pressure crossing New England tonight and Saturday may bring a few showers/thunderstorms through Saturday. However, dry weather will dominate much of the time. Very warm temperatures and rising humidity levels will be the story for early to middle of next week. Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms possible each day, though better chances on Wednesday and Thursday associated with a slow-moving cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 7 AM Update:

Regional radar mosaic shows light showers mainly across the Berkshires and moving into parts of NW CT. Additional somewhat steadier rains were moving northward from the waters south of Long Island and should begin to affect the South Coast and the Cape and Islands around mid-morning. Radar looks worse than what's actually falling though, as much of these echoes are falling from fairly high-based cloud cover (7000' or higher). Best chance for rains thru this afternoon is south of the Mass Pike, and especially central RI into the South Coast, Cape and the Islands closer to the stalled front. Thinking for most areas away from the South Coast, conditions should be more cloudy than wet. Clouds and the onshore NE flow will keep temperatures somewhat cooler today.

Previous discussion .

A shortwave from the Great Lakes affects our weather today and Saturday. For today, the trough is digging as it moves through the Eastern Lakes, with the supporting upper jet aligned with the southwest upper flow over New England. The right entrance region of the jet is over Southern New England, supporting dynamic lift over the region. Surface low pressure attempting to develop over Virginia is a sight on this supporting lift.

High moisture remains offshore well south of the region, but PWs do reach 1.5 inches so moisture is not completely absent. Stability parameters are mediocre or lower. Early morning radars do show showers over the ocean well south of Long Island moving northeast.

With showers existing south of the southern waters, there is a chance of showers reaching Srn New England aided by the developing surface low as it passes offshore. But mostly along the South Coast and Islands, possibly a few miles farther north. Low-end pops will be used for today. Observations and satellite show lots of clouds over New Jersey and PA moving northeast, so sky cover will trend toward mostly cloudy skies where that is not already the case.

Mixing will reach to 850 mb where temps are 12-13C, supporting highs in the lower 80s. An east wind into the Eastern Mass coast may keep that area in the 70s. An east-southeast wind along the South Coast and Islands will do the same for that coast as well.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Tonight .

The Great Lakes shortwave moves into New England tonight, with weak cold advection aloft from the accompanying cold pool. Stability parameters trend to unstable. For example, the total-totals rise to around 50 in Wrn Mass/CT after midnight. Expect scattered showers and possible thunder during this time. Dew points in the 60s, so expect similar values for early morning min temps.

Saturday .

The upper trough and cold pool remain overhead much of the day, moving offshore late. This will generate scattered showers/thunder for at least a part of the day. Expect much of the day to be dry, but punctuated by these scattered showers. Continued east wind will keep coastal areas in the 70s. The CT Valley, being farther west, should reach the lower and possibly mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Drying out with more sun and warming temps for rest of the weekend.

* Heat/high humidity then return Mon into Wed. 'Heat Wave' criteria could be met at a few sites.

* Daily thunder chances thru midweek, greatest now on Wed-Thu with a slow moving cold front.

Details .

Saturday Night into Sunday Night:

Overall not too bad for the remainder of the weekend. Clearing and drying trend Sat night into Sunday under modest shortwave ridging. For late Sunday and moreso Sunday night, a few recent model runs have offered a suble and weakening vort max progress ESE somewhere near or around our area from the convectively-active Midwest. Lot of spread in the guidance on timing and placement of this vort max, many of which are more into northern New England. Something to watch but will side toward a dry forecast for now.

850 temps rise into the upper teens Celsius range by Sunday with most areas well into the 80s, though downsloping off the Berkshires could bring a few locations to near 90. Though dewpoints will be on the rise, humidity levels should be still fairly tolerable.

Monday through Thursday:

Typical mid-summer pattern then develops for early next week, one that will bring with it building heat and humidity levels toward uncomfortable/oppressive levels. 850 mb temps are well into the upper teens (around +17 to +19C) with dewpoints mid 60s to lower/mid 70s. It's a generally warm pattern, but prolonged SW flow may offer near daily chances at evening lower clouds and fog and briefly delay stronger heating. Specific to temperatures, that's really the only significant source of uncertainty at this point and those details not likely to be resolved prior to a couple days before. A few sites stand a chance at seeing a heat wave in this period, and elevated heat indices could reach levels where Heat Advisories could garner consideration. Expect several days in the upper 80s to low 90s with little relief at night (low to mid 70s lows Mon/Tues and Wed nites).

A cold front will be slow to move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast states, and it will serve as a focus for greater t-storm chances toward midweek. Greater anticipated net coverage of clouds may also help reduce temps Wed-Thu a bit, but it still will remain quite humid. Otherwise, thunder chances look on the low side and mainly near the terrain in western MA/western CT.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

VFR most areas today, though MVFR conditions may affect the Islands in scattered showers and an embedded thunderstorm. Better chance at deteriorated conditions set in tonight as MVFR becomes more widespread across Srn New England with a few showers or a thunderstorm. IFR ceilings possible along the South Coast and Islands. Conditions improve to VFR Saturday, mainly in the afternoon.

Light winds trend from the east today at 10kt or less, mostly in Eastern MA and RI with winds more light/variable in the CT Valley. Continued light east wind Saturday.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. Winds/seas will remain below Small Craft thresholds through Saturday. Wind directions trend from the North early today, then from the east late morning. Winds remain from the east through Saturday. Main concern for mariners will be the risk for a few thunderstorms, especially tonight and early Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi51 min N 1 G 1.9 69°F 74°F1020.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi51 min 70°F 71°F1020.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi51 min NNE 6 G 8 72°F 75°F1020.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 67°F1020.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi114 min NE 5.1 69°F 1021 hPa64°F
PRUR1 36 mi51 min 73°F 62°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi51 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1021.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi51 min 69°F 78°F1020.7 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi51 min N 4.1 G 7 71°F 1020.9 hPa58°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi57 min NE 5.1 G 7 72°F 76°F1020.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi39 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 70°F1019.9 hPa68°F
FRXM3 45 mi51 min 71°F 60°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi51 min NE 5.1 G 6 72°F 1020.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi39 min ENE 7 G 7 1021.4 hPa (+0.6)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi51 min 71°F 79°F1020.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi73 min 72°F2 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi46 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F61°F81%1020.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi1.7 hrsN 310.00 miFair66°F63°F90%1019.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi45 minNE 3 mi70°F66°F90%1020.4 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi43 minENE 310.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm4NE8E8E8SE7SE4E4SE5S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN4N5Calm
1 day agoSW3--S8--S10S10S11S12SW9SW9S8S5S6SW6SW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoSE7SE8SE8SE11SE12
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SW10SW8--SW4S8SW6SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:19 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.72.31.71.20.70.40.511.62.22.72.92.82.521.61.10.70.611.62.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:53 PM EDT     -2.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:51 PM EDT     2.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.60.6-0.8-2.1-2.9-2.9-2.2-10.31.72.52.521.1-0.1-1.4-2.4-2.8-2.3-1.3-0.11.12.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.