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Marine Weather and Tides Stonington, CT Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:27AM

Sunset 5:33PM

Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:12 PM EST (17:12 UTC)

Moonrise 3:31PM

Moonset 6:06AM

Illumination 95%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 241341 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 841 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Mild weather today ahead of a fast moving clipper system. The cold front associated with the system swings through tonight and could bring a few light rain showers. Blustery with slightly cooler than normal temperatures on Thursday. Periods of unsettled weather late this week into early next week with a series of fast-moving features passing by southern New England every couple of days into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

840 AM Update .

* Unseasonably mild this afternoon

The stage is set for an unseasonably mild afternoon across the region. A relatively mild start and 925T increasing to between +2C and +4C by late afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This combined with the increasing late February sun angle signals a classic day for temperatures to overachieve. We expect highs to range from between 45 and 50 in the high terrain/immediate south coast; to between 50 and 55 elsewhere. Increasing south to southwest LLJ will result in a bit of a breezy developing by late afternoon. This should also result in some cooling temps working northward from the south coast given the cold SST this time of year. Nonetheless, temps will run about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

We will see some mid and high level cloudiness increase by afternoon, especially across our western and northern zones ahead of an approaching cold front. However, dry weather should prevail through the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Highlights

* Clipper system quickly slides through bringing a few light rain showers this evening. Skies clearing late tonight.

* Breezy, cool and quiet weather on Thursday.

Shortwave trough over the eastern Great Lakes/southeastern Ontario during the evening. This will lift into northern New England late and into Nova Scotia by daybreak. A clipper system will quickly slide through the region. The cold front associated with the system will be through the vast majority of the region before midnight.

Have increased precipitation chances across much of southern New England for the evening. Really think that most areas will remain dry, but given there is some low level moisture to work with and a front moving through. Cannot completely rule out a rain shower and it should be all rain given the thermal profile ahead of the front. Best shot is across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires where have chances of precip. Elsewhere have slight chances. Very light QPF with only a few hundredths of liquid given we are a bit further away from the best forcing over northern New England.

Will remain blustery across southern New England overnight as the clipper deepens in northern New England. Will also see a fairly strong southwesterly low level jet and still remain pretty modest once winds shift to the northwest as the system exits. The southwesterly low level jet speeds will be around 50-70 kts and 35- 45 kts when winds shift to the northwest. Luckily with the southwesterly flow and warm air advection it will be tough to mix down as the boundary layer decouples. Once the front passes should be easier to mix down some of those stronger winds aloft as colder air advects in resulting in more mixing. Have gusts of 20-30 kts with the highest speeds over the higher terrain.

Should see skies clearing pretty quickly in wake of the system with strong northwesterly cold air advection. Should see temperatures of 0 to -5 degrees Celsius move in. Do not expect strong radiational cooling given the mixing expected. Lows will generally be in the 30s.

Thursday .

Mid level ridge builds in across the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region. A surface high nudges in from the Ohio River Valley.

Will remain blustery across southern New England with dry conditions. The combination of the departing system and incoming high will keep the pressure gradient fairly tight especially earlier in the day. Think there could be some 20-30 kt gusts during the morning.The pressure gradient relaxes a bit during the afternoon, but still will be breezy. Northwesterly cold air of -4 to -7 degrees Celsius at 925 hPa moves in. This will bring temperatures back to if not slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. Highs range mid to upper 30s across the interior to the low to mid 40s along the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights .

* Temperatures trending well above normal this weekend into early next week, followed by a sharp cooldown towards the middle of next week

* Expecting a series of weaker, fast-moving weather systems to affect southern New England just about every other day

Not much has changed with the 24/00Z guidance. Still looking at a predominantly zonal mid level flow across most of the U.S. into early next week. Still a decent signal for some ridging along the East Coast Friday into Sunday. Then the pattern starts to change towards early next week, with signals for separate and more amplified northern and southern streams developing.

This scenario typically leads to weaker and progressive weather features, which can also be more difficult to time. Confidence in the timing details starts to drop off Sunday, and only gets lower heading into Tuesday.

The favored track for low pressures will be to our north, leaving our region to deal more with the fronts associated with these low pressures. The trend to well above normal temperatures this weekend also favors more rain than snow, although some snow is possible if it can occur at night. Still focused on two windows of opportunity for precipitation. One should be sometime Saturday into Saturday night. Some question as to the onset time with a large high pressure over the North Atlantic. Another set of fronts may impact our region sometime Sunday night into Monday night.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High confidence

VFR with winds shifting to the SW/S with speeds of 5 to 15 kt. Could have some 20-25 kt gusts across Cape Cod and the Islands. Mid to high clouds with ceilings of 10-15 kft moving in late.

Tonight . High confidence

MVFR ceilings spread across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and the NH/VT/MA border. These locations also have the best shot for a few showers. Cannot completely rule out a shower elsewhere, but may be more isolated in nature. Confidence too low to include in the latest TAF issuance. Should generally be VFR elsewhere. A cold front moves through, with W-NW winds gusting to 20-30 kt, highest over the higher terrain.

Thursday . High confidence

VFR with gusty WNW to NW winds. Should see gusts of 20-30 kts.

KBOS TAF . High confidence.

KBDL TAF . High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, chance SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday: VFR.

MARINE. Today and Tonight .

Westerly winds diminishing this morning and shift to the SW by early afternoon. Starting off around 20-30 kts and decreasing to 15-20 kts by late morning. Wave heights falling to 3-5 ft by early afternoon.

Southwesterly flow strengthens this afternoon and especially this evening as a clipper system moves in. Will have speeds of 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. Once the cold front associated with the system crosses the waters late, winds shift to the WNW. Wave heights building as the winds ramp up 3-6 feet by late afternoon and 4-9 feet tonight. Have opted to extend the Small Craft Advisory for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound despite having winds fall below limits for several hours today. Am highly confident in speeds increasing to limits by late afternoon. Also have hoisted a Gale Warning for the eastern outer waters where confidence is highest in reaching Gales tonight. Elsewhere have hoisted Small Craft Advisories where they are not already in effect. There is a low risk of Gale Force gusts for Cape Cod Bay/Nantucket Sound late.

Thursday .

Gale Force gusts continue across the eastern outer waters into the early afternoon and small Craft Advisory conditions persist elsewhere with blustery WNW to NW winds. Wave heights of 4-9 feet. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ231-232- 255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ233-234. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/BL MARINE . Belk/BL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	10 mi	32 min	WSW 17 G 19	41°F			1014.3 hPa	27°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	11 mi	54 min		48°F			1016.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	20 mi	54 min		43°F	37°F		1017.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI	31 mi	54 min	W 8 G 13	47°F	37°F		1016.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	32 mi	54 min	SW 9.9 G 14	43°F	38°F		1016.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	36 mi	87 min	W 7	48°F			1017 hPa	31°F
PRUR1	36 mi	54 min		49°F				26°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	36 mi	54 min	WNW 8 G 12	49°F			1017 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI	39 mi	54 min	WSW 16 G 18	45°F	38°F		1016.1 hPa
PVDR1	41 mi	54 min	W 9.9 G 14	48°F			1016.5 hPa	29°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI	42 mi	54 min	W 7 G 19	47°F	36°F		1016.4 hPa
FRXM3	45 mi	54 min		45°F				33°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	45 mi	32 min	W 12 G 16	41°F	41°F		1018.4 hPa	35°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	46 mi	54 min		46°F	38°F		1016.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	46 mi	72 min	WSW 18 G 19				1017.7 hPa (+0.6)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	46 mi	54 min	SW 11 G 13	43°F			1016.4 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154)	48 mi	46 min			38°F	5 ft

Wind History for New London, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI	5 mi	19 min	WSW 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Fair	43°F	31°F	63%	1016.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT	8 mi	16 min	SW 14 G 19	10.00 mi	Fair	46°F	34°F	63%	1016 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY	17 mi	18 min	W 7	mi		48°F	32°F	54%	1017.3 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI	19 mi	16 min	W 14 G 21	10.00 mi	Fair	45°F	32°F	61%	1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut

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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current

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Weather Map

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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