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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 845 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves nw 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 8 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves W 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 8 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 20 seconds.

PZZ400 845 Pm Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters...north winds gusting up to 20 kts will remain localized, south of cape mendocino. The northwest mid period swell will continue to diminish over the weekend as a longer mid period swell arrives Saturday night from the west. Winds will briefly turn south Saturday evening into Sunday, ahead of another front. Milder conditions are expected compared to recent systems.

FXUS66 KMFR 090339 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 739 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION
The aviation and marine sections have been updated.
Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.

AVIATION
09/00Z TAFs...Conditions to begin this evening are VFR across the area with mid and high level clouds advancing into southwest Oregon ahead of a warm front. The front will be focused north of our area while high pressure builds into northern California.

Later this evening and overnight, LIFR ceilings and fog will likely build back into the valleys, especially west of the Cascades. Some of this fog could be freezing fog as temperatures in the west side valleys should be dropping into the upper 20's and lower 30's. The increasing higher level clouds are a complicating factor, which could keep temperatures up and hinder the fog development.

Ceilings are expected to lift and break around 18Z Saturday morning, with some mixing from the passage of the warm front. But, a further increase in higher level clouds may result in more of a lifting rather than the dissipation of the low clouds and freezing fog.

Saturday afternoon into the evening, rain is expected at the coast into northern and central Douglas County, especially from Cape Blanco northward, including North Bend and Roseburgh. This will also likely produce patchy MVFR and obscuration of the higher peaks of the Coastal Range. Meantime, VFR is expected elsewhere.
-DW

MARINE
Updated 730 PM Friday December 8, 2023...Quiet weather will persist tonight with seas around 6 to 8 feet. An approaching warm front early Saturday will result in increased wind speeds and a significant and rapid increase in wave heights through Saturday night.

Seas will become hazardous to small craft north of Cape Blanco Saturday morning and across the remainder of the waters Saturday afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory hazard now includes the waters north of Cape Blanco during late Saturday morning, and now extends across all of the waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

Winds and seas will be at a peak Saturday night with seas at 12 to 17 feet at 13 to 14 seconds. During this peak, seas will be highest and gale force gusts are possible north of Cape Arago. A cold front will follow Sunday into Sunday evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late Sunday night.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday with low seas of 3 to 4 ft anticipated. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 17 to 18 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
-DW

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 234 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023/

SHORT TERM...Dry weather is likely this afternoon through tonight.
Low clouds are expected to gradually dissipate later this afternoon, although they could linger into the afternoon in the Scott Valley.
High clouds offshore will move into the area later this evening and tonight, but some of the high res guidance shows it will be a thin layer, therefore conditions will be favorable for temperatures to cool down pretty quickly after dark with near freezing overnight lows for many interior westside valley locations. Not to mention it will be cold east of the Cascades. With upper ridging building into the area tonight, the atmosphere will be stable. This in combination with existing moisture from all of the precipitation over the last several days will likely result in low clouds and fog/freezing fog later this evening and lasting through the morning hours Saturday for the interior westside valleys.

A warm front will move towards the area Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. There's good agreement the bulk of the precipitation will remain north of our forecast area. However, some light rain could slip through the cracks into northern Coos and northwest Douglas County during the day Saturday.

Saturday night, a frontal system will slowly move southeast with precipitation also spreading southeast. However it should remain mainly confined to the coast, north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades. Snow levels Saturday night will be around 6500 feet, therefore any road snow concerns will be mainly confined to the Crater Late area with a rain/wet snow mix around Diamond Lake.

The front will continue to move south during the day Sunday with precipitation spreading southeast into most of southern Oregon and western Siskiyou County. Precipitation will linger through Sunday night in the same areas. Snow levels will rise to around 7000 feet Sunday, then lower to around 6500 feet Sunday night, therefore road snow concerns will be confined to the Crater Lake area.

Monday, precipitation will diminish in the morning with dry weather expected for the afternoon that will last through Monday night. We could see low clouds and fog again for many of the interior westside valleys Monday night as upper riding builds in. -Petrucelli

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Thursday. Tuesday starts with an upper ridge nudging into the west coast as the upper trough that brought precipitation to the region, and left continued low level moisture in the valleys. this will result in west side valley fog with weak offshore flow. Ensemble plots are in very good agreement with the upper ridge shifting to the east by Wednesday afternoon, with the next front moving rain into the coast Wednesday morning.
models then begin to diverge greatly, but the majority are keeping precipitation from the Cascades westward into Thursday. -Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM PST Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370.

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Trinidad Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM PST     2.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM PST     6.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:51 PM PST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM PST     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet

Arcata Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:29 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM PST     6.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:56 PM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM PST     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arcata Wharf, Humboldt Bay, California, Tide feet

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