Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:21PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 4:04 AM EST (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu and Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri and Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strong area of low pressure moves north through new york state tonight, bringing southerly gales and high seas. The low moves north through canada Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then builds into the mid atlantic Thursday. A coastal weather system may bring showers Friday night and Saturday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 010839 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 339 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will drift over upstate New York today, then gradually lift to the north through Wednesday. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. The next frontal system will swing through the region Friday into Friday night, followed by the potential for a wave of low pressure near the coast or remaining offshore for the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A cold front associated with the large area of low pressure across upstate New York will push offshore this morning, followed by the main piece of vorticity associated with the upper trough this afternoon. This will combine to create unsettled conditions across the region today, with a good deal of cloud cover along with a chance of showers through much of the day.

While not nearly as windy as what the region experienced yesterday, breezy conditions are expected again today in the wake of the cold frontal passage, with WSW winds gusting to 30-35 mph from late morning through the afternoon. The highest winds are once again expected along the coast.

After early highs ranging from around 50 across far northwestern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley to the mid to upper 50s across far eastern portions of southern Connecticut and Long Island, temperatures will remain nearly steady this morning before slowly falling this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Quieter conditions will return to the area as both the surface and upper lows slowly lift north into southeastern Canada tonight into Wednesday. While additional pieces of energy will rotate through the base of the departing trough, with a much drier atmospheric column expect these to only result in increased cloudiness.

After overnight lows in the 30s, high temperatures on Wednesday will only rise into the low to mid 40s, near normal for the beginning of December.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Late Wednesday night and into Thursday high pressure off to our south and west will build and take more control of our weather with more in the way of sunshine anticipated for Thursday.

A cold front / surface trough is expected to approach from the west on Friday. There is some model disagreement as to how much moisture can move up from the south and southwest as a positively tilted trough attempts to set up for very late in the week and into the start of the weekend. For now chose to go with slight chance to low end chance POPs for late Friday into Friday night as the upper level energy and forcing mechanisms will likely get sheared and shunted to the east as the upper level pattern get somewhat out of phase. The trough however will attempt to reload and deepen later in the weekend. The exact timing of this is in doubt with the various global model camps differing a good deal with their surface progs, and thus sensible weather timing differences. For the time being, hedged with some surface ridging attempting to briefly build for much of Saturday, followed by chance POPs for Saturday night into Sunday as some coastal development attempts to get going. The ECMWF is the slowest with regard to coastal development as it keeps a confluence zone to our north close by for early in the weekend, followed by low pressure development near and offshore for late Sunday into early Monday. Confidence remains well below average for later in the extended period, thus chose to go more with a blended ensemble approach as per WPC. Temperatures should average fairly close to normal overall, with temperatures potentially turning somewhat colder into the first half of next week.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure moving through upstate New York will track slowly northward into Canada early Tuesday, then meander during Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Mainly VFR, with MVFR at times through 09, for ceilings, and isolated fog. Widespread VFR is expected by Tuesday morning. Scattered to isolated showers will be possible during the day, however, no impact to ceiling or visibility is expected.

Southerly winds 10-15kt along the coast, and less than 10kt inland. Winds increase during the day with gusts developing in the morning, and gusts peaking 25 to 30kt during the afternoon. Wind and gusts diminish during Tuesday evening, with gusts ending outside of the New York City terminals.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments overnight with improving conditions. No unscheduled amendments expected Tuesday. Gusts may be a few knots higher in the afternoon, especially along the coast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Late Tuesday night. VFR. SW winds G20-25kt at the New York City terminals. Wednesday. VFR. W/SW winds G20kt. Thursday. VFR. Friday and Saturday. Mainly VFR. MVFR possible with any scattered showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. After a brief lull overnight, winds will increase again this morning as gusty WSW flow develops in the wake of a cold frontal passage. This will result in gusts to 30-35 kt on the ocean and 25-30 kt on the Long Island sound, New York Harbor, and southern and eastern bays. In addition, seas on the ocean will remain 8-13 ft through the day. Seas may also increase once again on the eastern Long Island Sound, building back to 3-5 ft this afternoon into this evening. With this in mind, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect on all waters through tonight.

While winds will fall below SCA criteria on the nearshore waters on Wednesday morning, gusts increase to around 25 kt again Wednesday afternoon. With SCA gusts continuing on the ocean waters as well, the Small Craft Advisory will likely need to be extended for much of the area. In addition to the gusty winds, seas will remain elevated on the ocean, slowly falling from 6-10 ft Wednesday morning to 5-7 ft Wednesday night.

Late Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure gradually pulls further north and high pressure attempts to nose in from the southwest the winds will gradually decrease with sub SCA conditions likely returning to the waters from west to east. For Thursday night through Friday marginal SCA conditions may linger at times for the eastern ocean waters on a west to southwest flow regime and 4 to 5 ft seas. Otherwise, Sub-SCA conditions should return for the remaining waters for the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There may still be some localized minor coastal flooding with the Tuesday morning high tide for the Queens and Nassau south shore back bays. Chose to go with a statement here as the tide will be a touch higher for Tuesday morning, and also due to an over performance of the high tide from earlier this evening in these places. Will also have to watch eastern great South Bay with WSW flow.

After Tuesday morning high tide, no coastal flooding is anticipated through the middle of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ330-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/JE NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . JE AVIATION . MET MARINE . FEB/JE HYDROLOGY . FEB/JE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 6 mi39 min S 12 G 13 57°F 995.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi46 min S 8 G 9.9 57°F 55°F999.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi46 min 58°F 53°F1000 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi46 min S 12 G 13 56°F 51°F1000.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi46 min S 8.9 G 12 60°F 54°F1000.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi79 min SSW 8.9 61°F 1001 hPa61°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 11 61°F 1001.2 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi46 min 59°F 59°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi46 min ESE 20 G 22 58°F 51°F999.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi46 min SSW 13 G 17
PVDR1 44 mi46 min SSE 14 G 14 59°F 1000.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi46 min S 12 G 19 63°F 1000.8 hPa
FRXM3 49 mi46 min 62°F 62°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi68 minS 90.75 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%999.9 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi71 minS 73.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F93%1000.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi70 minS 5 mi58°F57°F100%1000.5 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi68 minS 134.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1000.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmS5SW8SW8W8SW7SW6SW3SW4SW10W5NE3Calm3SW7CalmCalmN3N3
2 days agoN6N5NW5CalmCalmCalm4W5W8W4SW12W9W12NW3NW7NW4N4N7NW5NW4W6W8W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:01 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:07 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:44 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.70.40.40.81.52.12.62.82.72.31.71.20.70.300.10.61.21.722.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EST     -2.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:01 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:56 PM EST     -3.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:00 PM EST     2.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.7-2.5-2.6-1.9-0.80.51.82.62.61.90.9-0.4-1.8-2.8-3.2-2.7-1.7-0.312.12.62.21.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.